Holtmann is in a weird area right now. Definitely better than where we were at the end of the Thad’s tenure, but also certainly below where OSU could be.
My hot take is that if he doesn’t make a sweet 16 by next season he’s gone.
You could be right as that would mean zero sweet 16 runs in 6 years at the helm. Although every offseason it seems his name is brought up as a candidate to bolt from OSU for an opening at a more basketball tradition rich school. So, he's still highly thought of in the coaching world. I'll break down his year by year below.
2017-18
Arguably his best season and it was his first. Took a veteran team that went 17-15 the year before, missing the NCAA Tournament two years in a row under Matta, and went 15-3 in B1G play and got a 5th seed in the NCAA Tournament. Lost to Gonzaga in round of 32.
2018-19
Lost a lot of that veteran talent from the year before, and finished 20-15. The definition of an uninspiring bubble team, four games below .500 in the B1G, but managed to not only squeeze into the tournament but avoid the play-in round by one seed line. Got a 1st round upset over Iowa St before losing to Houston in round of 32.
2019-20
Hard to judge what would have been due to the tournament being canceled due to COVID. They were ranked in the top 20 prior to the world shutting down and looked like a sure bet to be a 5 seed had that tournament been played. Solid team but nothing special. Sweet 16 was probably their ceiling, more likely another one and done losing in the round of 32.
2020-21
Well, we all know the story here. Despite losing 4 straight games to end the regular season they went on a run in the B1G Tournament and lost in OT of the championship game. Received a 2 seed in the tournament, Holtmann's highest ranking at OSU, but lose to Oral Roberts. Was embarrassing at the moment but then ORU was about an inch away from making the Elite Eight in one of the best Cinderella runs in NCAA Tournament history.
2021-22
TBD. So far projected as a 5 seed in most brackets. Been a weird year with losing three games from their schedule to COVID. They've been inconsistent and frustrating at times, which kind of started this whole forum discussion. Even still, they don't have any truly bad loses. All of them are to tournament teams or bubble teams. Liddell is one of the best players in the country, Branam is emerging, and they have some decent pieces/parts to contribute around those two. Feels like this could be a Sweet 16 squad in a year with a lot of parity.
So, in conclusion, really all Holtmann is missing is a deep tourney run. He's taken the Bucks to the tournament all 5 years he's been here. All look to be 5 seeded teams or better, with the exception of 2018-19's 11 seed team. The 2-3 record in the NCAA Tournament and not getting out of the Round of 32 is the issue.
