2021-2022 Cavaliers General Discussion: Trade Deadline Edition

[BimboColesHair]

Posted this in S34, thought it was interesting enough to put out here.

I found every team with a DRtg at least 3.8 better than league average (Cavs have since moved to 4.1 better than league average this year but still leaving at 3.8) with a positive team Net rating since the 1980-81 season and here is how those teams performed in the playoffs.

146 teams met the parameters.

1 team missed the playoffs, the 96-97 Cavs who finished 42-40 with a team Net of 2.2.

45 teams lost in the 1st round with an average team Net of 3.62.

46 teams lost in the 2nd round with an average team Net of 4.94.

21 teams lost in the Conference Finals with an average team Net of 6.46.

13 teams lost in the Finals with an average Net of 5.85.

20 teams won the Finals with an average Net of 8.44.

So 68.5% of the time a team posting a DRtg 3.8 or better than league average will win at least 1 series.

But here is the kicker for the 2021-22 Cleveland Cavaliers. Of those 146 teams, they are the 2nd youngest team by average age to meet the metric parameters. The only team younger than them in that 40 year span? The 97-98 Cavs. They also are tied with the 2017-18 Celtics that took us to 7 games that the media was calling the next great team. Here is how those teams rank currently:

21-22 Cavs: +4.9 Net rating, +4.1 above league average for DRtg
17-18 Celtics: +3.7 Net Rating, +4.7 above league average for DRtg
97-98 Cavs: +3.0 Net rating, +5.9 above league average for DRtg

So the current Cavs have the best overall team, if you believe in ORtg and DRtg and team Net as an indicator of the quality of team, and the 97-98 Cavs were the best young defensive team in modern NBA history. The NBA Lockout before the 98-99 season was a killer.

 

[Futuredome]

More like they were never that good. Lockout or no lockout. Being able to stay healthy is a skill.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Posted this in S34, thought it was interesting enough to put out here.

I found every team with a DRtg at least 3.8 better than league average (Cavs have since moved to 4.1 better than league average this year but still leaving at 3.8) with a positive team Net rating since the 1980-81 season and here is how those teams performed in the playoffs.

146 teams met the parameters.

1 team missed the playoffs, the 96-97 Cavs who finished 42-40 with a team Net of 2.2.

45 teams lost in the 1st round with an average team Net of 3.62.

46 teams lost in the 2nd round with an average team Net of 4.94.

21 teams lost in the Conference Finals with an average team Net of 6.46.

13 teams lost in the Finals with an average Net of 5.85.

20 teams won the Finals with an average Net of 8.44.

So 68.5% of the time a team posting a DRtg 3.8 or better than league average will win at least 1 series.

But here is the kicker for the 2021-22 Cleveland Cavaliers. Of those 146 teams, they are the 2nd youngest team by average age to meet the metric parameters. The only team younger than them in that 40 year span? The 97-98 Cavs. They also are tied with the 2017-18 Celtics that took us to 7 games that the media was calling the next great team. Here is how those teams rank currently:

21-22 Cavs: +4.9 Net rating, +4.1 above league average for DRtg
17-18 Celtics: +3.7 Net Rating, +4.7 above league average for DRtg
97-98 Cavs: +3.0 Net rating, +5.9 above league average for DRtg

So the current Cavs have the best overall team, if you believe in ORtg and DRtg and team Net as an indicator of the quality of team, and the 97-98 Cavs were the best young defensive team in modern NBA history. The NBA Lockout before the 98-99 season was a killer.

That '97-98 team that was the "best young defensive team in modern NBA history" finished 47-35. They were 1st defensively and 24th offensively. They lost in the first round.

The next six years the Cavs never won more than 44% of their games. So just being young and the league's best defensive team doesn't guarantee future success.

The starting lineup for that team was Ilgauskas, Shawn Kemp, Cedric Henderson, Brevin Knight, and Wesley Person. Kemp at age 28 led the team in scoring and rebounds. Person, 26, shot 43% on 3's. The other three starters were 22 years old.

The same starting lineup the following year went 22-28.

I think the Cavs of this year are way ahead of that group offensively. They're averaging over 8.5 ppg more than the '97-'98 team despite missing their leading scorer in Sexton. This team is on pace to win 49 games and that's not factoring in going from the hardest first half schedule to the easiest in the second half.

The '97-'98 team is an interesting case study but IMO they're not similar at all to this year's team except both had good young centers.

I'd venture to say this year's group is far more talented than the '97-98 team and won't be below .500 for the next six years.

 

[BimboColesHair]

That '97-98 team that was the "best young defensive team in modern NBA history" finished 47-35. They were 1st defensively and 24th offensively. They lost in the first round.

The next six years the Cavs never won more than 44% of their games. So just being young and the league's best defensive team doesn't guarantee future success.

The starting lineup for that team was Ilgauskas, Shawn Kemp, Cedric Henderson, Brevin Knight, and Wesley Person. Kemp at age 28 led the team in scoring and rebounds. Person, 26, shot 43% on 3's. The other three starters were 22 years old.

The same starting lineup the following year went 22-28.

I think the Cavs of this year are way ahead of that group offensively. They're averaging over 8.5 ppg more than the '97-'98 team despite missing their leading scorer in Sexton. This team is on pace to win 52 games and that's not factoring in going from the hardest first half schedule to the easiest in the second half.

The '97-'98 team is an interesting case study but IMO they're not similar at all to this year's team except both had good young centers.

I'd venture to say this year's group is far more talented than the '97-98 team and won't be below .500 for the next six years.

As I said in my post, big problem for that team was the lockout.

Kemp ate himself out of the league because of it and you can argue the stop-start of the season led to Big Zs foot problems for the 2nd time in his young career. 5 games in and we didn't see Z until the 2000s, and Z made that team.

That coupled with Knight, Henderson, DA, Sura, and the rest of their young rotation guys just not getting better capped them. Big reason that promising group only lasted 1.5 seasons as a core, it was obvious they had reached the peak they could go as a group. Lot of older, more experienced college guys on those Cavs teams under Fratello.

They played defense, like you would expect an experienced group to do even when they were young, but their ceiling to get better offensively was energy crisis low.

And I'd agree with you, all around this current Cavs group is considerably better than that Cavs group, and will be in the future too. It's not even close.

 

[buzzdog]

Connective tissue generally heals more slowly than bones, so a bad sprain may require a longer recovery period than a broken bone. There's not really any way to know without having more details about the severity of the injury.

Sure, it could be longer than a broken bone. Hell, he could be done for the season. That seems to be the general consensus because, I get it, we're Cavs fans.

What I don't see anyone but myself mentioning is that there also exists a possibility that it could be a shorter recovery, given the complete absence of information. I mentioned before how Lebron and Giannis have both had ankle turns that looked at least as bad if not worse, only to miss hardly any games. And it was nothing remotely like Hayward's horrible injury. It looked a lot like what's happened to Lebron a few times, and it didn't even look as bad as what happened to Giannis, all of which looked extremely painful right when they occurred. It might come down to how much yoga and stretching Lauri does on a regular basis.

To me the bolded sentence of your post is the only thing that holds any actual truth regardless of all the pessimistic assumptions being made, until more information is released.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Sure, it could be longer than a broken bone. Hell, he could be done for the season. That seems to be the general consensus because, I get it, we're Cavs fans.

What I don't see anyone but myself mentioning is that there also exists a possibility that it could be a shorter recovery, given the complete absence of information. I mentioned before how Lebron and Giannis have both had ankle turns that looked at least as bad if not worse, only to miss hardly any games. And it was nothing remotely like Hayward's horrible injury. It looked a lot like what's happened to Lebron a few times, and it didn't even look as bad as what happened to Giannis, all of which looked extremely painful right when they occurred. It might come down to how much yoga and stretching Lauri does on a regular basis.

To me the bolded sentence of your post is the only thing that holds any actual truth regardless of all the pessimistic assumptions being made, until more information is released.

Well, sure. I think everyone is aware that an ankle sprain can be very minor as well. "High" ankle sprains tend to be more severe, but it could still be just a couple of weeks depending on severity.

 

[buzzdog]

Well, sure. I think everyone is aware that an ankle sprain can be very minor as well. "High" ankle sprains tend to be more severe, but it could still be just a couple of weeks depending on severity.

To read all the comments everyone starts from the worst possible outcome and then they work their way back from there. Part of TCE.

 

[Jscc]

Well, the upside to no Lauri is next man up. We have a hole at SG. Okoro, Stevens, Windler, and Cedi have been rotating in and out at SG. At least one of them should be able to set themselves apart long-term and make up some of Lauri's scoring. This is also predicated on JBB giving them that chance. His leash on Windler lately is unfairly short. Hard for a guy to improve like that.

 

[BodegaBayCav]

Well, the upside to no Lauri is next man up. We have a hole at SG. Okoro, Stevens, Windler, and Cedi have been rotating in and out at SG. At least one of them should be able to set themselves apart long-term and make up some of Lauri's scoring. This is also predicated on JBB giving them that chance. His leash on Windler lately is unfairly short. Hard for a guy to improve like that.

JBB is focused on winning, not giving Windler or anyone else minutes to develop. As Windler continues to make 3's, he will earn more minutes provided of course the team does well when he is on the floor. This is the way it should be, imo.

 

[CavsKermit]

The Cavs are going to make a trade. It will likely be at or near the deadline. The road will be a little bumpy between now and then. People need to not freak out after every disappointing game and give into recency bias though.

 

[Jscc]

JBB is focused on winning, not giving Windler or anyone else minutes to develop. As Windler continues to make 3's, he will earn more minutes provided of course the team does well when he is on the floor. This is the way it should be, imo.

That's not the kind of the team this is. It's a developmental team with a young roster. The fact that it's winning is coincidental.

 

[mds]

With Lauri out, Widler should get some chances...to break his kneecaps.

 

[dms]

That's not the kind of the team this is. It's a developmental team with a young roster. The fact that it's winning is coincidental.

100% disagree.
You play to win because you don't know what the future may bring. I'm not saying trade away the future to win now, but right now at game time it's about winning and development is coincidental. With Covid and injuries everywhere, this is a rare season where there is no dominant team, especially in the East. I realize a long playoff run is doubtful, but who expected the Hawks to go as far as they did at this time last year?

 

[MikeOC33]

With Lauri out, Widler should get some chances...to break his kneecaps.

You want Windler to break Lauri's kneecaps?

Wtf man, that seems a little harsh, going all Tonya Harding on him for a starting job. Smh...

 

[JJ_PR]

Some thoughts on the Cavaliers from a fan perspective:

- Garland is a max player. There's no doubt about it. Once he's eligible for an extension, the Cavs brass should rush to his house & offer it, similar to how they did with Irving in 2014.

- My offer for Rubio would be 4 years, $50 million. I think that's a fair contract for both sides. I really hope we bring him back. With Sexton returning from injury, Rubio's minutes will be reduced.

- As for Sexton, I'd offer him the same contract Allen got. 5 years, $100 million with a 5% increase per year. I think it's a lot of money, but the upside is huge.

- In regards to making a trade, I'd be hesitant unless the price is right. I'm not giving up our draft picks this year. They're too valuable. Eric Gordon is a name thrown around, but he's 33 & has a long history of injuries. I wouldn't trade Rubio for him at all even if they were the ones offering draft compensation.

- The Kevin Love situation is a bit confusing. Somehow, he's come back to life this year. That said, his past tells you that it might be a fluke. He's been a non-factor since he signed that extension, aside from a good stretch this season. Maybe he's eyeing one last contract. If we get expirings for him, I'd send him straight to the airport. We're flirting with being a tax team, that money can be better used elsewhere, & we could avoid being above it one extra year which could be huge down the road.

- One more thing: Is it possible that the Cavs sign a player of Puerto Rican descent? Examples are Moe Harkless & Shabazz Napier. I think both those guys are good bench players. Napier would be a major upgrade over Pangos. The reason I mention this is because I live in Puerto Rico & our local channels tend to favor teams that have these guys (especially in the MLB). It's weird though because this year, we haven't gotten any Kings games. Maybe it's because Harkless is somewhat irrelevant. Napier played for the Puerto Rican national team so I bet he'd get y'all more air time here, which is good for me.