2021 Around MLB: Return of the Dead Ball Era

[kidduck]

I am enjoying Lindors' struggles.

 

[kidduck]

From NY Post:

Just over a month since signing a 10-year extension with the club worth $341 million, Lindor took a dreadful .171/.289/.220 slash line with one homer and three RBIs into Monday night’s game against the Cardinals at Busch Stadium, as he remained tethered to the No. 2 hole in the lineup.


A deeper look into the numbers shows that Lindor’s biggest issue isn’t chasing pitches or strikeouts, but his inability to barrel the ball. Entering play he had barreled 2.8 percent of pitches, which ranked in the 12th percentile among MLB players, according to Statcast. Lindor’s barrel rate the previous three seasons were 9.5, 7.5 and 5.6, respectively.


“He seems tentative at the plate, caught in-between,” a major league scout said, adding that Lindor’s low barrel rate is probably a timing issue, connected to lack of aggressiveness and not seeing the ball well.


“Bad trifecta,” the scout added. “Keep swinging.”

A second scout said Lindor has become too pull-happy, and that is evident even in batting practice.


“He’s trying to go yard all the time instead of trying to use the field more, making hard contact,” the second scout said. “He’s always had home-run power. He’s trying to yank the ball too much.”


I have been seeing him try to pull sometimes, forcing to pull the ball instead of naturally pulling,” Rojas said. “There’s been some pitches middle/away to away that he’s tried to pull and he just can’t get there and it turned into weak grounders, because he has to throw his hands, he can’t reach out there.


“I don’t know if he’s going for the [home run] result, but he wants to pull the ball in the air or he’s tried to pull the ball in the air. Right now I think he’s focusing more on the middle of the field.”


Lindor, entering play, had struck out only 12.2 percent of the time. He had also walked 12.2 percent of the time. Both figures were better than Lindor’s career percentages, telling Rojas that pitch selection or chasing hasn’t been as much the issue as the quality of contact.



“I just think his body has been out of the position where he can hit the ball a certain way,” Rojas said. “He’s gotten pitches that he’s able to pull and he pulls a little bit too early and those go foul, well-hit foul. The pitch selection has been good as far as pitches being strikes. It’s just body control that has been out of whack.”


Rojas isn’t ready yet to hit the panic button and place Lindor on the bench for a game or two or even drop him in the lineup. The fact the offense showed life in Philadelphia, where the Mets won two of three games over the weekend, might have lessened the pressure on the manager to consider such a move.
The second scout said it would be foolish for the Mets to panic just a month into the season.
“He has so much fun playing and he’s very positive,” the second scout said. “I don’t see a mental aspect to it where he’s going to start really pressing. I think if we’re talking a month from now, all of a sudden he will be fine.”

 

[Urban]

Looking at the first 255-257 plate appearance sample size for Santana dating back to 2012. Paints the picture of a guy who excels in the back end of the season. Looking at the 8 seasons, he was SIGNIFICANTLY better the rest of the way in 4 of the 8 seasons. 2013 was his most dramatic negative difference, yet he was still producing at a 123 wRC+. Little improvement in 2018, his worst full season. Little improvement in 2019 as well, which is actually quite impressive considering how strong he came out the gate in 2019 while he and Brad Hand kept the team afloat single handedly.

I completely get declining the option and I don't necessarily fault the Indians not pursuing a 35 year old 1B given the direction the team was taking in 2021, but at the very least I fully expected Carlos to continue to be a 20 HR 15% walk rate guy in 2021. Eventually father time will come for him but he's been so remarkably consistent that I'd still continue to bet on him.

 

[mopete12]

From NY Post:

Just over a month since signing a 10-year extension with the club worth $341 million, Lindor took a dreadful .171/.289/.220 slash line with one homer and three RBIs into Monday night’s game against the Cardinals at Busch Stadium, as he remained tethered to the No. 2 hole in the lineup.


A deeper look into the numbers shows that Lindor’s biggest issue isn’t chasing pitches or strikeouts, but his inability to barrel the ball. Entering play he had barreled 2.8 percent of pitches, which ranked in the 12th percentile among MLB players, according to Statcast. Lindor’s barrel rate the previous three seasons were 9.5, 7.5 and 5.6, respectively.


“He seems tentative at the plate, caught in-between,” a major league scout said, adding that Lindor’s low barrel rate is probably a timing issue, connected to lack of aggressiveness and not seeing the ball well.


“Bad trifecta,” the scout added. “Keep swinging.”

A second scout said Lindor has become too pull-happy, and that is evident even in batting practice.


“He’s trying to go yard all the time instead of trying to use the field more, making hard contact,” the second scout said. “He’s always had home-run power. He’s trying to yank the ball too much.”


I have been seeing him try to pull sometimes, forcing to pull the ball instead of naturally pulling,” Rojas said. “There’s been some pitches middle/away to away that he’s tried to pull and he just can’t get there and it turned into weak grounders, because he has to throw his hands, he can’t reach out there.


“I don’t know if he’s going for the [home run] result, but he wants to pull the ball in the air or he’s tried to pull the ball in the air. Right now I think he’s focusing more on the middle of the field.”


Lindor, entering play, had struck out only 12.2 percent of the time. He had also walked 12.2 percent of the time. Both figures were better than Lindor’s career percentages, telling Rojas that pitch selection or chasing hasn’t been as much the issue as the quality of contact.



“I just think his body has been out of the position where he can hit the ball a certain way,” Rojas said. “He’s gotten pitches that he’s able to pull and he pulls a little bit too early and those go foul, well-hit foul. The pitch selection has been good as far as pitches being strikes. It’s just body control that has been out of whack.”


Rojas isn’t ready yet to hit the panic button and place Lindor on the bench for a game or two or even drop him in the lineup. The fact the offense showed life in Philadelphia, where the Mets won two of three games over the weekend, might have lessened the pressure on the manager to consider such a move.
The second scout said it would be foolish for the Mets to panic just a month into the season.
“He has so much fun playing and he’s very positive,” the second scout said. “I don’t see a mental aspect to it where he’s going to start really pressing. I think if we’re talking a month from now, all of a sudden he will be fine.”

Interesting comments from that second scout considering the stats show that Lindor is pulling the ball less than any year in his career and going opposite field way more than any year in his career.

Looks like he’s hitting a lot more ground balls and less line drives. Fly ball rate is normal.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Hitting 38 HRs in 2018 did not help the artist formally known as Frankie.

 

[Steve_424]

Not saying Frankie got him fired but one certainly wonders if they’d be canning their hitting coach this early in the season if their new 300M FA investment wasn’t hitting .163

 

[Criznit]

And I've said many times that if it was simply a cost-cutting thing, I accept that, but if it was a talent evaluation thing, I believe it was a huge whiff.

All the peripherals pointed to his dip in production last year simply being a result of a small sample size.

It's just not as black and white as that though..

If Carlos had delivered and was a top producer, it makes picking up his option a lot more sensible. To put it in perspective at the start of the 2020 season, it was pretty much assumed Santana's option would be exercised. However, as the FO began pushing this financial crunch narrative, coupled with an awful performance... He became a lot more expendable.

I guess the real question is, would they still have let him walk if he had crushed 2020... I would have said no last year, but in hindsight it seems a lot more likely.

 

[Steve_424]

It's just not as black and white as that though..

If Carlos had delivered and was a top producer, it makes picking up his option a lot more sensible. To put it in perspective at the start of the 2020 season, it was pretty much assumed Santana's option would be exercised. However, as the FO began pushing this financial crunch narrative, coupled with an awful performance... He became a lot more expendable.

I guess the real question is, would they still have let him walk if he had crushed 2020... I would have said no last year, but in hindsight it seems a lot more likely.

I would hope the FO would have a better perspective when making that decision than to rely on a 60 game season but I get your overall point.

With that said, I would've been happy to match the $7M in 2021/$10.5M in 2022 the Royals gave him. I would've rather done that than bring back Cesar if a choice had to be made.

 

[Derek]

It's just not as black and white as that though..

If Carlos had delivered and was a top producer, it makes picking up his option a lot more sensible. To put it in perspective at the start of the 2020 season, it was pretty much assumed Santana's option would be exercised. However, as the FO began pushing this financial crunch narrative, coupled with an awful performance... He became a lot more expendable.

I guess the real question is, would they still have let him walk if he had crushed 2020... I would have said no last year, but in hindsight it seems a lot more likely.

I don't think I can explain myself any better than what I already have, but I'll try again.

If picking up his option wasn't in the budget, I understand. It sucks, but I understand. I have said this many times.

However, if last year's production scared them off, then shame on them.

 

[Criznit]

I don't think I can explain myself any better than what I already have, but I'll try again.

If picking up his option wasn't in the budget, I understand. It sucks, but I understand. I have said this many times.

However, if last year's production scared them off, then shame on them.

All I am saying it is it is more of combination of those two points.

If he had a stellar year, the budget is probably a bit more flexible in regards to Carlos.. But it is tough to say ultimately. They were hellbent on cutting salary so maybe there was no way it would have worked..

 

[Derek]

All I am saying it is it is more of combination of those two points.

If last year's production had anything to do with them declining the option then shame on them.

 

[Criznit]

If last year's production had anything to do with them declining the option then shame on them.

It did. It's a shame they left him to rot in the cleanup role, he was one of the worst producers in that spot in the last 10+years. SSS be damned..

 

[Derek]

It did. It's a shame they left him to rot in the cleanup role, he was one of the worst producers in that spot in the last 10+years. SSS be damned..

I don't have a problem with them keeping him in the 4-spot.

I just have a problem with them declining his option. We have a really good FO, but this was a complete whiff in both logic and execution.

 

[AZ_]

Hitting 38 HRs in 2018 did not help the artist formally known as Frankie.

The phrase "culture eats strategy for breakfast" keeps coming to mind when I think of the current state of the Mets.


No culture, no development system in place that appears to have any comfort level. This isn't Steve Cohen's forte, and I don't think its ever going to be.

 

[Kevalier]

The phrase "culture eats strategy for breakfast" keeps coming to mind when I think of the current state of the Mets.


No culture, no development system in place that appears to have any comfort level. This isn't Steve Cohen's forte, and I don't think its ever going to be.

I get serious Dan Gilbert vibes from Steve Cohen in several aspects. My guess is that many executives like Antonetti, Chernoff, Stearns, etc. also feel that way, which is why they didn't even interview for the President of Baseball Operations position there last winter.