2021 Around MLB: Return of the Dead Ball Era

[sportscoach]

Seiya Suzuki To Be Posted Tomorrow Morning

MLB has told teams that outfielder Seiya Suzuki will be posted tomorrow morning, per MLB Network's Jon Heyman. That will …

www.mlbtraderumors.com

Well get to it Dolan! Lol

I really doubt it will happen, but maybe it should!

 

[CDAV45]

Seiya Suzuki To Be Posted Tomorrow Morning

MLB has told teams that outfielder Seiya Suzuki will be posted tomorrow morning, per MLB Network's Jon Heyman. That will …

www.mlbtraderumors.com

Well get to it Dolan! Lol

I really doubt it will happen, but maybe it should!

Are you not listening? It's not going to happen nor should it. When was the last high profile Japanese player signed by Cleveland? Were they ever close to getting one? Did they even bid on one? Why are you so obsessed with Suzuki?

 

[sportscoach]

Are you not listening? It's not going to happen nor should it. When was the last high profile Japanese player signed by Cleveland? Were they ever close to getting one? Did they even bid on one? Why are you so obsessed with Suzuki?

It's a slight joke honestly lol but at the same time, we are the Guardians now! Let's go do something that the organization hasn't done before. I mean you cannot say Dolan is cheap if he signs Suzuki and extends players now can you?

 

[CDAV45]

It's a slight joke honestly lol but at the same time, we are the Guardians now! Let's go do something that the organization hasn't done before. I mean you cannot say Dolan is cheap if he signs Suzuki and extends players now can you?

Trust me when I say someone will find something to bitch at Dolan about. Ultimately when something doesn't work out someone will say, "they should have never changed the name". There will always be that minority that wants to bitch and complain.

 

[sportscoach]

Trust me when I say someone will find something to bitch at Dolan about. Ultimately when something doesn't work out someone will say, "they should have never changed the name". There will always be that minority that wants to bitch and complain.

Oh I know they will, but it be nice if they could change as many people views as possible at the end of the day without changing their strategy of signing people to much. I think Suzuki will be a success state wide...

 

[CDAV45]

Oh I know they will, but it be nice if they could change as many people views as possible at the end of the day without changing their strategy of signing people to much. I think Suzuki will be a success state wide...

You might be right. I don't think you will be, but you might be right. Either way, the Guardians are not going to win any bidding wars for his services. However useful or inept they may be.

 

[CATS44]

Suzuki is a gamble. Success in Japan does not guarantee production in MLB.

In some ways signing him would be like signing a 23 yr old prospect that has torn up the minors for years in order to have cost control over him for the length of the contract.

Lets say the projected numbers on him are correct....5/55 plus the posting fee, which would make it about 5/65. A little over $12 mil per year. ( The posting fee is paid up front)

Which is the wisest signing for a smaller budgeted club?

Suzuki 5/65?
Garcia 3/36?
Soler 3/36?
Canha 2/24?

All carry the same annual cost.

O think there is almost zero chance the we could sign Suzuki, but lets make a case for him anyway.

The closest comparison is Hideki Matsui, who arrived in MLB at age 30. Matsui was a butcher in the field, basically a DH...which lowered his value considerably. Over his first five years he put up only 9.3 fWAR.

But with a bat he was very good....a 126 w RC+....exactly the same as Grady Sizemore in his first four years.

Lets look at their comparative lines....Matsui first...


BB ...10.8....10.4
K.......12.5....20.1
IS0....191.....205
BABIP...332...307
BA......295...283
OBP....371...369
SLG....485...488

During that span they were the same offensive player, minus Gradys speed.

IF Suzuki is another Matsui at age 27, and IF he can play an average defense, he will hit much like Grady and have more value than Matsui.

5/65 will be a steal, even for an org like the Guardians.

Thats a lot of IFs, but thats the gamble.

On the flip side, there are a lot of Japanese batters who were/are albatrosses.

 

[sportscoach]

Suzuki is a gamble. Success in Japan does not guarantee production in MLB.

In some ways signing him would be like signing a 23 yr old prospect that has torn up the minors for years in order to have cost control over him for the length of the contract.

Lets say the projected numbers on him are correct....5/55 plus the posting fee, which would make it about 5/65. A little over $12 mil per year. ( The posting fee is paid up front)

Which is the wisest signing for a smaller budgeted club?

Suzuki 5/65?
Garcia 3/36?
Soler 3/36?
Canha 2/24?

All carry the same annual cost.

O think there is almost zero chance the we could sign Suzuki, but lets make a case for him anyway.

The closest comparison is Hideki Matsui, who arrived in MLB at age 30. Matsui was a butcher in the field, basically a DH...which lowered his value considerably. Over his first five years he put up only 9.3 fWAR.

But with a bat he was very good....a 126 w RC+....exactly the same as Grady Sizemore in his first four years.

Lets look at their comparative lines....Matsui first...


BB ...10.8....10.4
K.......12.5....20.1
IS0....191.....205
BABIP...332...307
BA......295...283
OBP....371...369
SLG....485...488

During that span they were the same offensive player, minus Gradys speed.

IF Suzuki is another Matsui at age 27, and IF he can play an average defense, he will hit much like Grady and have more value than Matsui.

5/65 will be a steal, even for an org like the Guardians.

Thats a lot of IFs, but thats the gamble.

On the flip side, there are a lot of Japanese batters who were/are albatrosses.

I am looking at the numbers between Matsui and Suzuki, just by quick glance doing math not actually looking up the stats..

I'd rate Suzuki as a better contact while Matsui had the better power overall. Suzuki has the better SO rate, but not by a big margin and both guys have solid BB rates. The quick glance numbers say Suzuki is a better athlete, but I cannot compare actually OF numbers defensively since Matsui's weren't recorded in Japan at the time. I'd probably lean towards Suzuki being the better potential in the OF (better athlete and arm).

If I had to rate a Suzuki, solid batting AVG, around .270 with a .350 area OBP and about a .420 SLG% so if say around 25 2Bs and 15-20 HRs type of deal... the little numbers I can find on defense, I'd think LF is slightly better for him state wide...

So I'd project a lighter hitting Anthony Rizzo from the right side who plays average OF so around 3 WAR +/- 0.5 WAR...

 

[CATS44]

Marlins extending Alcantara for 5/55...the highest ever for a SP with between 3 and 4 years of service time. He was due about $4.5 mil in his first arby.

Bieber has the exact same service time and is projected at $4.8 in arby.

Alcantara has been very good, but Bieber has been better. Bieber is coming off an injury season.

I wonder what a fair five year extension would look like.

 

[sportscoach]

Marlins extending Alcantara for 5/55...the highest ever for a SP with between 3 and 4 years of service time. He was due about $4.5 mil in his first arby.

Bieber has the exact same service time and is projected at $4.8 in arby.

Alcantara has been very good, but Bieber has been better. Bieber is coming off an injury season.

I wonder what a fair five year extension would look like.

So more than likely it will be somewhere near his extension, likely 5-10 million higher... so a 5/60ish is likely in order...

 

[Gson]

It's a slight joke honestly lol but at the same time, we are the Guardians now! Let's go do something that the organization hasn't done before. I mean you cannot say Dolan is cheap if he signs Suzuki and extends players now can you?

It has been said..

It will be said...

Repeatedly...

despite ALL evidence to the contrary.. If there is any team that is "cheap" in town..it's the Browns and the Hasbeens..

 

[Gson]

Oh I know they will, but it be nice if they could change as many people views as possible at the end of the day without changing their strategy of signing people to much. I think Suzuki will be a success state wide...

...all evidence pointing to nothing.. high risk = high reward.. does not follow this logic when it comes to AA/AAA level players making the biggest jump in sports to the major leagues.. Someone else with deeper pockets and less to lose needs to make a play for this guy..

 

[sportscoach]

Looks like the Giants are trying to get their starting rotation back together!

 

[CDAV45]

So more than likely it will be somewhere near his extension, likely 5-10 million higher... so a 5/60ish is likely in order...

I don't for one minute think Bieber is willing to sign an extension like that. He'll look to get paid and if he stays healthy that will happen. It just won't be with the Guardians. He's a Cali kid so I'd guess he'll end up back there somewhere other than Oakland.

 

[sportscoach]

I don't for one minute think Bieber is willing to sign an extension like that. He'll look to get paid and if he stays healthy that will happen. It just won't be with the Guardians. He's a Cali kid so I'd guess he'll end up back there somewhere other than Oakland.

He doesn't have a ton of power to negotiate with his current contract status under the current agreement. He also will lose millions if he has another injury so its his choice right now to take guarenteed money or to gamble on himself... Also it sounded like he is actually for signing an extension that's within reason and that type of extension is.