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2021 College Football Season/Playoff Thread

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I did some tooling around and found a site with betting lines for the cfp. It has Bama a 13.5 and Georgia as a 7.5 favorite for people interested in that.
 
Crazy if OSU didn't lose to Oregon we probably have an all SEC/B1G playoff
 
Congrats Alabama.

Can't blame Michigan fans for talking themselves into having a chance. It's been a while.
 
Stark said:
Week 7 Top-10:
  1. Georgia
  2. Michigan
  3. Cincinnati
  4. Alabama
  5. Oklahoma State
  6. Notre Dame
  7. Ohio State
  8. Baylor
  9. Ole Miss
  10. Michigan State
Out: Oklahoma
In: Michigan State
Click to expand...

Week 8 Top-10:
  1. Michigan
  2. Alabama
  3. Cincinnati
  4. Georgia
  5. Ohio State
  6. Baylor
  7. Notre Dame
  8. Ole Miss
  9. Oklahoma State
  10. Michigan State
 
Ethan said:
GTFO
Lets go Zips! Or Bearcats!
Whatever team is from Ohio.
Click to expand...
There's definitely a part of me that wants to root for Cincy.

But it also doesn't matter because Alabama is beating them by infinity regardless.
 
It'd certainly be a great story if Cincinnati won a game, but I don't want in state recruiting competition.

At this point, as long as someone beats Michigan I will be happy. Launch this goddamn football season into the sun.
 
Tlyons said:
Can't blame Michigan fans for talking themselves into having a chance. It's been a while.
Click to expand...

Michigan did play Wisconsin and Iowa this year.

So you at least have a proxy of offensive performance against two good defenses and Michigan performed well.
  • Wisconsin is #1 in total defense (240.8), #2 in yards per play (4.17), #3 in offensive TD's (18), #3 in DFEI
  • Iowa is #19 in total defense (326.8), #10 in yards per play (4.72), #T-19 in offensive TD's (29), #4 in DFEI

Their offensive output in those games:
  • Wisconsin: 365 total yards, 4.87 yards per play, 4 offensive TD's, 3 FG's
  • Iowa: 461 total yards, 7.2 yards per play, 6 offensive TD's

They are going to need to have Cade play well vs Georgia but I think the big surprise in the SEC championship game was that Georgia's 4 man pressure wasn't very effective at all. If Michigan can protect and force them to blitz more to bring pressure, I do like their passing game matchups on Georgia's LB's .....either with their TE's or RB's in space.

I also think Michigan's defense can do similar things to Bennett.

Back half of the Georgia season, they played teams that were ranked this way in total defense.

Florida - #46
Mizzou - #111
Tennessee - #85
Charleston - FCS
Georgia Tech - #116
Bama - #8

They have played an exceptionally soft defensive schedule down the stretch. The one good defense they played, they turned it over twice, ran for 3.6 YPC and played catch up the whole second half.

I think Georgia has a ton of talent and maybe they bounce back after getting embarrassed........but it is also possible they just played absolutely no one with a defensive pulse.......and now they are going to play another team that is just as good, if not better, defensively.
 
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I'mWithDan said:
Michigan did play Wisconsin and Iowa this year.

So you at least have a proxy of offensive performance against two good defenses and Michigan performed well.
  • Wisconsin is #1 in total defense (240.8), #2 in yards per play (4.17), #3 in offensive TD's (18), #3 in DFEI
  • Iowa is #19 in total defense (326.8), #10 in yards per play (4.72), #T-19 in offensive TD's (29), #4 in DFEI

Their offensive output in those games:
  • Wisconsin: 365 total yards, 4.87 yards per play, 4 offensive TD's, 3 FG's
  • Iowa: 461 total yards, 7.2 yards per play, 6 offensive TD's

They are going to need to have Cade play well vs Georgia but I think the big surprise in the SEC championship game was that Georgia's 4 man pressure wasn't very effective at all. If Michigan can protect and force them to blitz more to bring pressure, I do like their passing game matchups on Georgia's LB's .....either with their TE's or RB's in space.

I also think Michigan's defense can do similar things to Bennett.

Back half of the Georgia season, they played teams that were ranked this way in total defense.

Florida - #46
Mizzou - #111
Tennessee - #85
Charleston - FCS
Georgia Tech - #116
Bama - #8

They have played an exceptionally soft defensive schedule down the stretch. The one good defense they played, they turned it over twice, ran for 3.6 YPC and played catch up the whole second half.

I think Georgia has a ton of talent and maybe they bounce back after getting embarrassed........but it is also possible they just played absolutely no one with a defensive pulse.......and now they are going to play another team that is just as good, if not better, defensively.
Click to expand...

Reminds me of that time I tried using statistics to predict how good Ohio St would play against Florida in 2006.
With Heisman Troy Smith and Tedd Ginn. I convinced myself Ohio St. was better. Needless to say we got beat like a drum.

These games come down to talent. Georgia has had the top recruiting classes each of the last 5 years.
Michigan is embarrassingly under talented. You wont have the snow this time.

I want you to win but it will probably be ugly.

One Positive Note....Georgia tends to play "down" to their opponent.
They've been struggling in all their bowl games.

Go get em' Sparty!
 
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Ethan said:
Michigan is embarrassingly under talented.
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I feel like no one actually does any research. :chuckle:

Looking at guys playing.....

Michigan:

QB - 4 star, 5 star
RB - 4 star, 3 star, 4 star
WR - 4 star, 4 star, 4 star, 3 star
TE - 4 star, 3 star
C - 2 star
OG - 4 star, 4 star
OT - 4 star, 3 star

DL - 5 star, 4 star, 4 star, 4 star, 4 star
LB - 4 star, 4 star
CB - 3 star, 3 star, 3 star, 4 star
S - 5 star, 3 star, 4 star

Average star rating (30 players): 3.8 stars

Vastardis was the one 2-star, who has been really good. And Stueber was the 3 star OT, who was All-B1G 1st team.

Georgia:

QB - 3 star
RB - 5 star, 4 star, 4 star
WR - 3 star, 4 star, 3 star, 4 star
TE - 4 star, 4 star
C - 4 star
OG - 3 star, 4 star
OT - 5 star, 4 star

DL - 5 star, 3 star, 4 star, 4 star, 3 star
LB - 4 star, 5 star, 4 star, 4 star
CB - 3 star, 5 star, 3 star, 3 star
S - 4 star, 4 star, 0 star

Average star rating (31 players): 3.7

If you want to throw out the contributing non ranked player as an anomaly, it would be 3.8. Depending on how healthy Pickins becomes here, you could throw him in too......but the result is about the same. Pretty marginal contributing star difference.

Michigan hasn't recruited as many 5 star kids........but they have a really high hit rate recently on their 4 star kids across the board......and they have really developed 3 star secondary talent in to a very good unit.

Georgia has a higher star rating across their roster........but the contributing 25-30 guys who play? The roster talent is pretty equivalent. Especially with Georgia losing a few guys to suspension or injury. Georgia has more 5 star guys, Michigan has more 4 star guys that regularly contribute. If you look through Georgia's 5 star composite list......not many of those guys are playing for whatever reason.

I believe Georgia has more talent in general.......but the disparity between the guys who actually play is a lot smaller than the recruiting rankings indicate.

Michigan may lose but it isn't a talent thing to me. What was Ohio State's star average?
 
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