2021 NBA Draft Safari

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

kriegs

Sashi's Plan
Joined
Feb 24, 2008
Messages
830
Reaction score
681
Points
93
I cannot stand Moses Moody as lottery option maybe 12 or later on potential but he is too raw to be a top 10 pick in this draft. In last years a year earlier in the rebuild having not drafted Okoro maybe. Too many better options imo
I do like Moody in real life even if it's more of an 8-12 range pick. He just needs to stick to what he's good at. I know you guys probably watched more games than me but every time I saw him, he's just trying to do more than he's comfortable with since the team depends on him for points. He has the skills to be a 3&D Mikal Bridges type off the bat with some good coaching in his ear. Needs to reign it in and let others create his shot for him.

I more so picked him based on my playing style in the video game over who I'd want real-life Koby to pull the trigger on. I'm thinking Moody's spot-up shooting and improved size/defense make more sense in the starting lineup between Garland and Okoro. Sexton becomes the Lou Will sparkplug playing 30 mins a game off the bench. It's a lot to ask of Garland to create for Moody and Okoro, but in 2k it will work well. At least one of them is a decent spot-up shooter.

If I took Barnes, we've got Love/Nance/Prince and Barnes all needing minutes at the 4. I suppose I could deal Love but can't bring myself to do it since no team would want him in real life. So a little short-term bias as well due to the fact I doubt I play out 4 seasons to watch Scottie learn to shoot it.
 
Last edited:

MirORich

Hall-of-Famer
Joined
Sep 29, 2007
Messages
20,648
Reaction score
30,255
Points
148
For him and Springer, I'm willing to look past their rough edges because of how young they are, even compared to other freshmen.



What if you dig a little more into international bigs, though? Jokic, Gobert, both Gasols, Dirk, Porzingis, Vucevic, Capela, Sabonis, and then a slew of other solid-starter types. Sengun's arguably better than any of them at the same age...in most cases by a wide margin.
Oh I think he can absolutely be a good NBA player.

Admittedly, my ”in the last 25 years” timeframe conveniently eliminated Dirk from the conversation and he is absolutely worthy of being thought of as a #1 pick talent.

But not sure I’d put include any of those other guys as worthy of a #1 pick although many of them can make the clear argument for having been worthy of being top5 or top10.

Its a weird argument to even define though because every year is different in terms of the careers it yields long term. Ultimately, if you believe that Sengun will have a better, more impactful on winning NBA career than any other prospect in this draft, than its fair to say you think he should be ranked number one.

I just don’t think he will have the best career and impact from among this draft class. Very open to drafting him in the 6-12 range though and perhaps in that evaluation I am underrating him or overrating a few others.
 

I'mWithDan

"Straight Cash Homie"
Joined
Jul 21, 2010
Messages
8,633
Reaction score
14,481
Points
123
Here is the tankathon 1st round, run through my spreadsheet.

Screen-Shot-2021-04-06-at-5-16-26-PM.png


Guys my stuff tends to like, that maybe don't get a ton of national chatter to this point:

Isaiah Jackson
Davion Mitchell
Chris Duarte
Jared Butler
Neemias Queta

Those are all guys that just have really strong profiles across the board.

Duarte is maybe the most interesting guy to me. He's so damn old :chuckle: ......He isn't just blowing the doors off like Clarke, who was old as well.....but this is just tending to say he will immediately be able to play and it is likely he will be good. There is an age penalty in this calculation, so when guys are this good fighting through that, they tend to be players to pay attention to. Literally know nothing about him, other than his profile is interesting. Anyone have thoughts on him?

Also, if anyone has per 100 data on Giddey, shoot it over to me.
 
Last edited:

Nathan S

33 is the new 23
Joined
Aug 26, 2012
Messages
13,096
Reaction score
18,225
Points
123
Oh I think he can absolutely be a good NBA player.

Admittedly, my ”in the last 25 years” timeframe conveniently eliminated Dirk from the conversation and he is absolutely worthy of being thought of as a #1 pick talent.

But not sure I’d put include any of those other guys as worthy of a #1 pick although many of them can make the clear argument for having been worthy of being top5 or top10.

Its a weird argument to even define though because every year is different in terms of the careers it yields long term. Ultimately, if you believe that Sengun will have a better, more impactful on winning NBA career than any other prospect in this draft, than its fair to say you think he should be ranked number one.

I just don’t think he will have the best career and impact from among this draft class. Very open to drafting him in the 6-12 range though and perhaps in that evaluation I am underrating him or overrating a few others.

I'm just saying, drafting international bigs has generally been a good strategy in modern NBA history. If you think Sengun is the best international big yet (I think so), then that's saying something.

Here is the tankathon 1st round, run through my spreadsheet.

Screen-Shot-2021-04-06-at-5-16-26-PM.png


Guys my stuff tends to like, that maybe don't get a ton of national chatter to this point:

Isaiah Jackson
Davion Mitchell
Chris Duarte
Jared Butler
Neemias Queta

Those are all guys that just have really strong profiles across the board.

Duarte is maybe the most interesting guy to me. He's so damn old :chuckle: ......He isn't just blowing the doors off like Clarke, who was old as well.....but this is just tending to say he will immediately be able to play and it is likely he will be good. There is an age penalty in this calculation, so when guys are this good fighting through that, they tend to be players to pay attention to. Literally know nothing about him, other than his profile is interesting. Anyone have thoughts on him?

Also, if anyone has per 100 data on Giddey, shoot it over to me.

Sure thing:

GGSMPFGFGAFG%2P2PA2P%3P3PA3P%FTFTAFT%ORBDRBTRBASTSTLBLKTOVPFPTS
1816564.56.80100958216.451090750.41340782124.87099334910.385325440.46902654871.9300162336.0657653030.31818181822.7571660474.135749070.66666666671.7462051639.83389223411.580097410.844853122.0219217681.0109608844.687182283.12478818618.28920144

My draft rater has all of Jackson, Mitchell, Butler, and Queta in league-average territory (good bench player, or mediocre starter), certainly deserving of a 1st round pick though probably not higher than the teens given how deep this draft is at the top.

Duarte it's a bit cooler on; poor offensive rebound and free throw rates hurt him a lot, as well as his age of course. He also has a very low foul rate, which (counterintuitively) is a red flag for NBA defensive impact, perhaps suggesting a lack of physicality.
 

adam81king

Sixth Man
Joined
May 20, 2010
Messages
1,229
Reaction score
1,450
Points
113
Funny, I got nba2k21 for PS5 over the weekend and simmed 2020 so I could do the same thing.

Cavs finished with the 8th worst record and won the lottery (lulz). With the first pick, I chose Mobley. Jalen Green was on the board at 4, and OKC accepted a package of Sexton and Love for pick 4 (Green) and Horford....who I flipped to the Bulls for a future first rounder.

Running a starting lineup of :
Pg - DG
Sg- Green
SF - Okoro
PF - Mobley
C - Allen

Nance and Windler playing multiple positions off the bench for heavy minutes. Really fun versatile lineup! DG and Green can fill it up, Mobley/Allen locks down the paint and I keep one on the court at all times. Realistic? Nah. Fun? Very.

Well, this would be the best offseason possible. #PleaseBabyJesus
 

KilgoreTrout

All-Star
Joined
Jul 3, 2009
Messages
15,353
Reaction score
9,450
Points
113
Can't see Mitchell going before the 20s imo. He's 22 and 6'2", and he isn't an offensive star. He does so much aside from that, but those are a lot of red flags from a drafting perspective. Some good team that wants help right now will snap him up and I bet he'll have a small but meaningful role in year 1.
nbadraft.net has Mitchell at 15, and Butler at 37.

Giddey at 20.
 

catfish

Gold Star Member
Joined
Dec 22, 2008
Messages
4,553
Reaction score
2,899
Points
113
Been surfing the net on Giddey- given what Ben said he makes sense if we are picking at 6-8: 6-8 and great passer
 

KilgoreTrout

All-Star
Joined
Jul 3, 2009
Messages
15,353
Reaction score
9,450
Points
113
I'm just saying, drafting international bigs has generally been a good strategy in modern NBA history. If you think Sengun is the best international big yet (I think so), then that's saying something.



Sure thing:

GGSMPFGFGAFG%2P2PA2P%3P3PA3P%FTFTAFT%ORBDRBTRBASTSTLBLKTOVPFPTS
1816564.56.80100958216.451090750.41340782124.87099334910.385325440.46902654871.9300162336.0657653030.31818181822.7571660474.135749070.66666666671.7462051639.83389223411.580097410.844853122.0219217681.0109608844.687182283.12478818618.28920144

My draft rater has all of Jackson, Mitchell, Butler, and Queta in league-average territory (good bench player, or mediocre starter), certainly deserving of a 1st round pick though probably not higher than the teens given how deep this draft is at the top.

Duarte it's a bit cooler on; poor offensive rebound and free throw rates hurt him a lot, as well as his age of course. He also has a very low foul rate, which (counterintuitively) is a red flag for NBA defensive impact, perhaps suggesting a lack of physicality.
Do we really need Sengun if we have Hartenstein? Hartenstein has all the tools that Sengun has, plus he’s a quarter German.
 

KilgoreTrout

All-Star
Joined
Jul 3, 2009
Messages
15,353
Reaction score
9,450
Points
113
Also, I’m surprised you guys have Johnny Juzang outside of the top-five. Dude just scored 137 points in 6 games against top competition, and he won me a heap of $$. I would put him right before or after Suggs, right?
 

Nathan S

33 is the new 23
Joined
Aug 26, 2012
Messages
13,096
Reaction score
18,225
Points
123
Post-MM big board. While some NCAA prospects helped their stocks, all of the top international guys have helped their stock a lot in the last month or so.

#1. Sengun. Same reasoning as before...probable MVP in an elite pro league at age 18. And contrary to popular belief, he's doing his damage in a fast-paced modern offense, not in a throwback post-centric offense.

#2/3. Barnes and Mobley, neck and neck. Both elite defensive prospects with great physical tools, though their offensive games have some moderately concerning weaknesses.

#4-10. Suggs, Kuminga, Green, Wagner, Moody, Giddey, Springer

#11-20. Garuba, Prkacin, Boston, McBride, Cunningham, Johnson, Cooper, Robinson-Earl, Butler, Jackson

More detailed

Sengun

What I like: Proven production against top competition. He's at the top of the scouting report every single game, but professional teams (even fairly big-budget ones) struggle to slow him down. Few defenders have both the quickness and the strength to match up against him, and double teams are risky because of his rapidly developing court vision. He should be a double-double threat right away, with potential to grow as a passer and as a shooter (79% from the line) considering his youth. While his defensive fundamentals are still raw, he shows plenty of potential with his league-best 2.9 steals+blocks per game.

What I don't like: While he appears to have shooting potential, his jumpshot isn't there yet. Despite his improvement from the foul line, he's just 4/22 from 3 this year, which is actually worse than the 6/29 he shot last season. It's possible that he'll never develop a consistent 3-point shot. At 6'10" in shoes he's on the shorter side for an NBA center, which raises questions about his defense in particular. Ideal frontcourt partner should be able to space the floor for him, and should also have plus size/length to help out defensively; players like that aren't easy to find.

--

Barnes

What I like: Defense and passing. Ideal physical tools to guard 1-4 with elite length, catlike lateral quickness, a high motor, and good recovery speed. On offense, he's a uniquely advanced point guard for a freshman, even compared to typical high-lottery point forward types. The ability to handle and create at his size, with his athleticism, is tantalizing.

What I don't like: His shooting needs a *lot* of work and there's a very real chance he's not much better than a guy like Ben Simmons here. This holds back his otherwise impressive offensive game. On defense, he doesn't quite live up to expectations in the paint; seems to lack some shot blocking instincts and some physicality against larger players.


Mobley

What I like: Length, IQ, and skill on both ends. Surprisingly smooth ballhandler and passer for a 7' freshman, able to score in a variety of ways even if he lacks a single elite scoring move. Fantastic team defender thanks to his length, athleticism, and good fundamentals. Generally great shot blocking instincts.

What I don't like: Leaves you wanting more. Should overwhelm opponents with his length and athleticism in the paint, but doesn't show that ability often enough. Flashes shooting ability, but extending his range out to the NBA 3 will be a project. On defense, lacks some physicality, and looked just a step slow at times, especially against the pace and skill of Gonzaga.

--

Suggs

What I like: Great energy on defense, uses his athleticism and competitiveness to full effect. Good leadership and confidence, quality all-around offensive game.

What I don't like: Just average length probably limits him to being a 2-position defender. Lacks a defining skill offensively, and athleticism alone won't get it done against NBA defenses.


Kuminga

What I like: Ideal physical tools for a wing. Gets to the rim at will, even against pros. Dribble/pass/shoot skills are still pretty raw, but he's among the youngest prospects, and showed signs of development in those areas.

What I don't like: May struggle to find a role offensively, as none of his skills are at NBA level yet. Quite a long way to go to realize his potential; will he get there? Okay defensive instincts, but not as big of a playmaker as one would hope on that end.


Green

What I like: Elite scoring touch. Can fill it up from all over the floor; could develop into one of the league's best pure shooters. Solid instincts on both ends on and off the ball. Great vertical athlete.

What I don't like: Really skinny frame; though he's willing to seek out contact, he really gets pushed around a lot in the paint. Can be a matador defender; opponents love to attack him off the dribble.


Wagner

What I like: Great defensive skillset, with light feet for his size, good instincts, and high activity level. Good leader. Can do a bit of everything offensively.

What I don't like: No standout offensive skills; streaky shooter, especially off the dribble, and not strong enough with his dribble to reliably put pressure on the rim.


Moody

What I like: Inside-outside scoring threat. Very dangerous shooter when he gets going, and has the right physique and mentality to battle in the paint. Quality wing defender.

What I don't like: Still fairly immature offensively; no plan B when his jumpshot isn't falling. In particular, no signs of a drive-and-dish game that would really elevate his game to the next level.


Giddey

What I like: Size and passing. A legit 6'9"+ in shoes with genuinely elite PG skills. Competitive and intelligent defender who makes the most of his length to accumulate rebounds, steals, and blocks.

What I don't like: Scoring limited by subpar quickness and athleticism. Can make 3's, but not a particularly quick or accurate shooter. May get exposed defensively against more physical wings.


Springer

What I like: Flashes of elite ability at a very young age, and solid physical tools for a combo guard. At his best, was a key part of Tennessee's swarming defense, showed PG potential, and scored in bunches.

What I don't like: Not a very confident shooter, which is a must for a modern guard. Still a long way to go to be able to run an NBA offense. Lacks consistency on both ends.


I'll get to 11-20 tomorrow!
 

Derek

1 by land, 2 by sea, 3 Baerga
Joined
Jan 10, 2009
Messages
14,297
Reaction score
19,615
Points
123
Also, I’m surprised you guys have Johnny Juzang outside of the top-five. Dude just scored 137 points in 6 games against top competition, and he won me a heap of $$. I would put him right before or after Suggs, right?
I’m not sure I’d take Juzang in the first round
 

Kiddo

NBA Starter
Joined
Aug 13, 2008
Messages
5,912
Reaction score
4,217
Points
113
Call me crazy but this my dream draft. Get a little lucky with the ping pong balls and draft Evan Mobley with our pick. Trade Sexton to the Thunder (i think he'd be a great fit with SGA) and take the best wing on the board with their pick, Kuminga, Barnes, Moody...
 

Muffinalt

Sixth Man
Joined
Oct 20, 2013
Messages
1,242
Reaction score
2,012
Points
113
Probably more limited to wings? Quantitatively his defensive numbers are extremely similar to Cades, but with slightly more rebounds, and qualitatively I think they're very similar defensively as well. Both good team defenders with good length, good understanding of positioning, and good anticipation. But you'd definitely feel nervous if they're on an island against a dangerous offensive player. Both adequate rebounders, though I think Cade's particular lack of quick-twitch vertical athleticism holds him back there. You'd typically want them guarding SFs, but they have some versatility to guard less-physical PFs and less-quick SGs.

Thanks for all that. It's like Giddey is what we all thought Cade would be coming in.
 

"MVP"

Sixth Man
Joined
Sep 17, 2008
Messages
1,090
Reaction score
1,180
Points
113
Call me crazy but this my dream draft. Get a little lucky with the ping pong balls and draft Evan Mobley with our pick. Trade Sexton to the Thunder (i think he'd be a great fit with SGA) and take the best wing on the board with their pick, Kuminga, Barnes, Moody...
Meh. There's so much fascination in the unknown. Outside of Mobley, Green, Suggs, or Cade, who all have the upside to be franchise talents IMO, I'd rather have Sexton. Kuminga seems boom-or-bust. Barnes, I love as a prospect, but if he never develops a jump shot, and he currently makes Okoro look like Ray Allen, he's probably a high-end role player. Moody, I'm probably lower on than most. Great measurements, but he projects to me as a low efficiency scorer, and why move a high-efficiency scorer (& our entire culture) for one of those. I kind of see him as a lesser version of TJ Warren.

(Not to say I'm entirely opposed to moving one of Sexton or Garland, but I think landing in the 3/4 spot to take Green or Suggs probably triggers a move more than Mobley.)
 

RCF Reserves

Total amount
$245.00
Top