2021 NBA Draft Safari

[Nathan S]

Updated my statistical rankings. As before, I've sorted the table by a blend of my statistical projections, strength of schedule (estimated for international players), and consensus mock draft ranking (using this source for the top-35, and my own projections after that).

Sengun leads the way thanks to his incredibly strong statistical projection. After him, there's a very tightly packed group of Mobley, Wagner, Barnes, and Giddey, followed by several other solid lottery types. Top sleepers are McBride, Liddell, Diop, Pippen, and Carr.

As always, let me know if I missed anyone who should be on here.

 

[Nathan S]

Solid game for Garuba in a titanic ACB league game between Real, riding a 13-game win streak, and Barca, riding a 16-game win streak. Real squeaked out a 2-point win thanks in part to Garuba's 11 points (including a couple 3's), 5 boards, and 2 blocks.

 

[Cavatt]

Updated my statistical rankings. As before, I've sorted the table by a blend of my statistical projections, strength of schedule (estimated for international players), and consensus mock draft ranking (using this source for the top-35, and my own projections after that).

Sengun leads the way thanks to his incredibly strong statistical projection. After him, there's a very tightly packed group of Mobley, Wagner, Barnes, and Giddey, followed by several other solid lottery types. Top sleepers are McBride, Liddell, Diop, Pippen, and Carr.

As always, let me know if I missed anyone who should be on here.

I am just wading in now. Is Sengun a Zion level prospect here? Meaning, who would you compare him to in terms of #1 prospect. Is he that for sure of a prospect for you?

I am a Barnes fan, but I realize he has some of the same weaknesses as Okoro

 

[Nathan S]

I am just wading in now. Is Sengun a Zion level prospect here? Meaning, who would you compare him to in terms of #1 prospect. Is he that for sure of a prospect for you?

I am a Barnes fan, but I realize he has some of the same weaknesses as Okoro

That's tough...as I've mentioned before, Sengun and Zion are probably more comparable to each other than to any other modern prospect. Both physically overwhelming in a way that you rarely see from an 18-year-old. Both have incredible touch around the rim and can finish in a variety of ways. Both are relentless on the offensive glass. Both sneaky-good ballhandlers and passers. Both active defenders who accumulate both steals and blocks. Barring a late-season collapse from Sengun, both clear MVPs in their respective leagues (again, virtually unheard of for an 18-year-old).

Zion is the better run/jump athlete, but Sengun has a bit more length and shooting touch. Easy for me to favor Zion with the benefit of seeing his NBA success, but if I try to forget that and just consider their pre-draft resumes, it's tough for me to favor one over the other.

 

[Cavatt]

That's tough...as I've mentioned before, Sengun and Zion are probably more comparable to each other than to any other modern prospect. Both physically overwhelming in a way that you rarely see from an 18-year-old. Both have incredible touch around the rim and can finish in a variety of ways. Both are relentless on the offensive glass. Both sneaky-good ballhandlers and passers. Both active defenders who accumulate both steals and blocks. Barring a late-season collapse from Sengun, both clear MVPs in their respective leagues (again, virtually unheard of for an 18-year-old).

Zion is the better run/jump athlete, but Sengun has a bit more length and shooting touch. Easy for me to favor Zion with the benefit of seeing his NBA success, but if I try to forget that and just consider their pre-draft resumes, it's tough for me to favor one over the other.

It seems then that Sengun is closer to a traditional center with above average skills instead of a complete outlier like Zion who is a bigman/wing outlier?

What about positional importance? Meaning, Zion is playing PF now with a traditional center, but is now playing point forward. Is Sengun a center only?

Edit: Watched some tape. He looks like a better passing Sabonis to me. Is he that at a younger age? Seems like he has that crazy percentage in the paint with that kind of finishing ability you just can't stop. His passing looks great and he does appear to block shots.

Tough to take this guy at our slot with 2 capable centers and a good small ball center. What do you do trade Allen in a year?

 

[Nathan S]

It seems then that Sengun is closer to a traditional center with above average skills instead of a complete outlier like Zion who is a bigman/wing outlier?

What about positional importance? Meaning, Zion is playing PF now with a traditional center, but is now playing point forward. Is Sengun a center only?

It's complicated. In college, Zion was not only an outlier scorer and rebounder, he also got a lot of assists and steals for a big man, which pointed strongly towards future perimeter potential. Sengun's similar in that way; he leads all Turkish league centers not only in scoring and offensive rebounding, but also in assists and steals.

Beyond that, at a more qualitative level, what Zion had going for him was his quickness on dribble drives. Sengun, on the other hand, has shown more promise as a jumpshooter. While they have their differences, both showed clear signs that they'll be more than rebound/dunk machines. This is nice because it frees up their teams to play a more defense-oriented player in the other frontcourt spot. The Pelicans are still trying to find that guy, but the Cavs may have a good option already in Allen.

 

[Cavatt]

It's complicated. In college, Zion was not only an outlier scorer and rebounder, he also got a lot of assists and steals for a big man, which pointed strongly towards future perimeter potential. Sengun's similar in that way; he leads all Turkish league centers not only in scoring and offensive rebounding, but also in assists and steals.

Beyond that, at a more qualitative level, what Zion had going for him was his quickness on dribble drives. Sengun, on the other hand, has shown more promise as a jumpshooter. While they have their differences, both showed clear signs that they'll be more than rebound/dunk machines. This is nice because it frees up their teams to play a more defense-oriented player in the other frontcourt spot. The Pelicans are still trying to find that guy, but the Cavs may have a good option already in Allen.

I don't get the sense that they could play together, but I get what you are saying.

 

[Nathan S]

I don't get the sense that they could play together, but I get what you are saying.

In what way? On one hand, I get the appeal of pairing guys like Zion with a stretch big. On the other hand, having another big paint presence makes it even harder for defenses to protect the rim. It's working pretty well for the Pelicans.

 

[Cavatt]

In what way? On one hand, I get the appeal of pairing guys like Zion with a stretch big. On the other hand, having another big paint presence makes it even harder for defenses to protect the rim. It's working pretty well for the Pelicans.

Thinking about the backcourt. If you want to run the offense through the frontcourt, yeah.

It will limit Okoro going forward, but I don't think we should not take the best guy because of him.

After the hype of the Americans in this class, this guy is pretty likely to be there if we pick in the 5-8 range, don't you think?

 

[Nathan S]

Thinking about the backcourt. If you want to run the offense through the frontcourt, yeah.

It will limit Okoro going forward, but I don't think we should not take the best guy because of him.

After the hype of the Americans in this class, this guy is pretty likely to be there if we pick in the 5-8 range, don't you think?

Drafting for fit would mean writing off not only Sengun, but also Mobley and Suggs among others. I don't think it'd be wise for the Cavs to do that, especially considering that those guys project to have some degree of positional versatility.

 

[Cavatt]

Drafting for fit would mean writing off not only Sengun, but also Mobley and Suggs among others. I don't think it'd be wise for the Cavs to do that, especially considering that those guys project to have some degree of positional versatility.

Where do you think Segun is taken?

I am also thinking about Goga. You were really high on him, weren't you? He has been a disappointment or at least doesn't really get minutes. Is Segun like a blow him out of the water prospect? Do you compare his level of impact to Doncic or at least one notch below?

 

[Nathan S]

Where do you think Segun is taken?

I am also thinking about Goga. You were really high on him, weren't you? He has been a disappointment or at least doesn't really get minutes. Is Segun like a blow him out of the water prospect? Do you compare his level of impact to Doncic or at least one notch below?

I was high on Goga, but as more of a roleplayer level prospect banking on his ability to block shots and hit 3's. He's definitely blocking shots, but for whatever reason he's shooting just 22% from 3 in the NBA after shooting 40% his last season in Europe. That really limits his usefulness. Perhaps the 40% 3-point shooting was a flash in the pan, as he shot rather poorly the year before. While he was a disappointment relative to my expectations, he seems to be developing reasonably well for a mid first round pick.

A big factor in comparing these prospects is level of competition. Assuming a decent finish from Sengun, all were league MVP in their respective leagues: Doncic in both Euroleague and ACB, Sengun in Turkey, Bitadze in the Adriatic. Euroleague is the highest level of competition in Europe, followed by the ACB League, and then several other leagues before the Adriatic League. So Doncic was MVP (and league champion) in Europe's 1st and 2nd strongest leagues, Sengun's hoping to be MVP in the 3rd strongest, and Bitadze was MVP in the 8th or 9th strongest. The best team in the Adriatic league is the 2nd-worst team in Euroleague, and would probably be a .500 team in Turkey, to give a rough idea.

Another big factor is the level of dominance. By PER, Doncic clocked in at 22.8 and Bitadze came in at 23.3, but Sengun is at a stratospheric 32.4. By WS/48, Doncic was at .230, Bitadze at .220, Sengun at .348. Doncic and Bitadze were deserving MVPs, but they weren't necessarily obvious, runaway MVPs. Sengun is a runaway MVP. He's not just having the best season of any player this year, he's having the best season of any player ever in Turkey.

 

[KilgoreTrout]

Wait - I’m seeing Johnny Juzang as a top-15 pick, on nbadraft.net. I know _I_ liked him, but I thought nobody ELSE did! He’s at #14!

 

[KilgoreTrout]

Sengun, they have at #32 overall!

 

[Derek]

Wait - I’m seeing Johnny Juzang as a top-15 pick, on nbadraft.net. I know _I_ liked him, but I thought nobody ELSE did! He’s at #14!

Nbadraft.net says it all...

He may very well sneak into the first round, but that seems like a waste of a first round pick.