2021 NBA Draft Safari

[Nathan S]

It's interesting how similar Barnes and Wagner are. Born within a month of each other, and nearly identical measurements. Both showed tantalizing potential, but struggled when asked to be #1 options offensively. Statistically (per-100):

Wagner: 23.2 points (59% true shooting), 12.2 boards, 5.6 assists, 2.3 steals, 1.9 blocks, 2.4 turnovers, 4.1 fouls
Barnes: 23.8 points (55% true shooting), 9.2 boards, 9.4 assists, 3.4 steals, 1.1 blocks, 5.7 turnovers, 5.0 fouls

Barnes averaged significantly more assists and turnovers, but I think that mainly reflects their different roles this season. Other than that, Barnes got somewhat more steals while Wagner was a little better in rebounds and blocks, but they're both ultra-versatile defenders. My draft rater projects Barnes at +2.85 impact and Wagner at +2.72, identical for all intents and purposes. I'd be thrilled to get either of them.

 

[daddywags]

It's interesting how similar Barnes and Wagner are. Born within a month of each other, and nearly identical measurements. Both showed tantalizing potential, but struggled when asked to be #1 options offensively. Statistically (per-100):

Wagner: 23.2 points (59% true shooting), 12.2 boards, 5.6 assists, 2.3 steals, 1.9 blocks, 2.4 turnovers, 4.1 fouls
Barnes: 23.8 points (55% true shooting), 9.2 boards, 9.4 assists, 3.4 steals, 1.1 blocks, 5.7 turnovers, 5.0 fouls

Barnes averaged significantly more assists and turnovers, but I think that mainly reflects their different roles this season. Other than that, Barnes got somewhat more steals while Wagner was a little better in rebounds and blocks, but they're both ultra-versatile defenders. My draft rater projects Barnes at +2.85 impact and Wagner at +2.72, identical for all intents and purposes. I'd be thrilled to get either of them.

Just like with Okoro last draft, I'm really having trouble talking myself into liking either one for the Cavs.

 

[foucault87]

I know Kumimga has a lot of athletic potential, but do we know anything about his drive? I remember reading there was some concerns about his motor. I honestly think I have Barnes above him on my board for that reason.

 

[Derek]

Just like with Okoro last draft, I'm really having trouble talking myself into liking either one for the Cavs.

I don't really see them as similar to Okoro. Wagner is a better shooter and playmaker, and Barnes is a point-forward.

 

[daddywags]

I don't really see them as similar to Okoro. Wagner is a better shooter and playmaker, and Barnes is a point-forward.

I don't think they're similar to Okoro, or to each other, really, just my reaction when thinking of us drafting them.

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

It's interesting how similar Barnes and Wagner are. Born within a month of each other, and nearly identical measurements. Both showed tantalizing potential, but struggled when asked to be #1 options offensively. Statistically (per-100):

Wagner: 23.2 points (59% true shooting), 12.2 boards, 5.6 assists, 2.3 steals, 1.9 blocks, 2.4 turnovers, 4.1 fouls
Barnes: 23.8 points (55% true shooting), 9.2 boards, 9.4 assists, 3.4 steals, 1.1 blocks, 5.7 turnovers, 5.0 fouls

Barnes averaged significantly more assists and turnovers, but I think that mainly reflects their different roles this season. Other than that, Barnes got somewhat more steals while Wagner was a little better in rebounds and blocks, but they're both ultra-versatile defenders. My draft rater projects Barnes at +2.85 impact and Wagner at +2.72, identical for all intents and purposes. I'd be thrilled to get either of them.

@Nathan S just when I thought we were moving to second base after making eye contact on Cunningham and getting to first on Mobley together...

I don't have Wagner close to Barnes for more reasons than their styles of play make them not comparable. I don't have Wagner in my lottery (though I know ONE guy who would love to have him just after the lottery in Thibs) while I have Barnes in my top 5.

AT BEST I see Wagner as an ideal 3&D wing/stretch 4 as his body matures who could be a really good intangible 4th starter. Kirilenko's bastard son with watered down genes.

They're not in the same tier for me.

 

[Nathan S]

@Nathan S just when I thought we were moving to second base after making eye contact on Cunningham and getting to first on Mobley together...

I don't have Wagner close to Barnes for more reasons than their styles of play make them not comparable. I don't have Wagner in my lottery (though I know ONE guy who would love to have him just after the lottery in Thibs) while I have Barnes in my top 5.

AT BEST I see Wagner as an ideal 3&D wing/stretch 4 as his body matures who could be a really good intangible 4th starter. Kirilenko's bastard son with watered down genes.

They're not in the same tier for me.

I don't really buy the scoring upside on either Barnes or Wagner, which is what drops them from franchise-player top-3-pick to "only" mid-lottery guys for me. It pains me to say that...I actually had FSU winning the championship in my bracket! But both Barnes and Wagner looked seriously uncomfortable when their teams asked them to be "the guy" in big games.

Given that, despite their differing styles, they project to fill similar NBA roles in my opinion: long, highly-switchable wings who could be exceptionally efficient 2nd-banana (ceiling) or 3rd-banana (more realistic) types on offense.

EDIT: I guess I should add, I think Wagner's team situation was kind of unfortunate in terms of showcasing his talent. He started next to pure pass-first point guard Mike Smith another point guard masquerading as a SG in Eli Brooks. That forced him into a scoring wing role, sort of how Barnes was occasionally miscast in a floor-spacer role. I think Wagner would've looked much better in a point forward role with score-first players at the guard positions (cough, Garland and Sexton).

 

[Muffinalt]

I don't really buy the scoring upside on either Barnes or Wagner, which is what drops them from franchise-player top-3-pick to "only" mid-lottery guys for me. It pains me to say that...I actually had FSU winning the championship in my bracket! But both Barnes and Wagner looked seriously uncomfortable when their teams asked them to be "the guy" in big games.

Given that, despite their differing styles, they project to fill similar NBA roles in my opinion: long, highly-switchable wings who could be exceptionally efficient 2nd-banana (ceiling) or 3rd-banana (more realistic) types on offense.

EDIT: I guess I should add, I think Wagner's team situation was kind of unfortunate in terms of showcasing his talent. He started next to pure pass-first point guard Mike Smith another point guard masquerading as a SG in Eli Brooks. That forced him into a scoring wing role, sort of how Barnes was occasionally miscast in a floor-spacer role. I think Wagner would've looked much better in a point forward role with score-first players at the guard positions (cough, Garland and Sexton).

Yeah he does seem like an awesome fit for us. Brings the needed defense, as him Nance and Allen would do wonders for Sexland, and his floor spacing and ability to move the ball would be a great compliment on offense too. Somewhat like an improved Okoro/Windler no?

A big wing scorer 1st option would still be the best outcome, but I wouldn't mind ending up with Wagner.

 

[Muffinalt]

I was thinking about the type of prospect I'd most like to add to the team and Jaren Jackson came to mind.

That type of player would really fit in perfectly.

So, my question to the draft gurus..anyone close to that?

Kai Jones is very similar, but much more raw (he's only playing for 5 years though).

Rim protection with perimeter switchability, although his overall defensive iq needs improvement.

Legit shooting in his arsenal, but it does need consistency. He's a little bit more of a rim runner too for now.

I like him quite a bit, because those tools you don't come around often. His bbiq needs to improve a lot but the guy only started playing now. I want to see where he's at in a few years, could really boom.

 

[I'mWithDan]

AT BEST I see Wagner as an ideal 3&D wing/stretch 4 as his body matures who could be a really good intangible 4th starter. Kirilenko's bastard son with watered down genes.

I think this is pretty tough. Opinions on Wagner and Barnes are kind of linked at the hip a little, prospect wise, after seeing them play one another. Not in the sense that Barnes didn't play well but Wagner did. And if you believe that Barnes can be a good, potentially great defender at the NBA level, then Wagner certainly should get a draft boost or at worst, cement his profile as someone who can likely create at the NBA level.

Wagner was comfortable against FSU and able to get downhill when he wanted to.....all good signs that his offense should translate. If you think Wagner isn't great and he likely is just a shooter at the NBA level, then the success rate he had against Barnes, getting to spots would be somewhat concerning for Barnes defensive profile. Wagner wasn't out there getting stonewalled by him, unable to create space or momentum toward the rim......he was able to score a few times, as well as get to spots where he collapsed the defense and then passed. His tourney was tainted by the UCLA debacle but Wagner looked really comfortable against a very good defensive team (FSU) and player (Barnes) and I think that is certainly a feather in his cap if you want to try to envision what he can do at the NBA level.

Franz won't be 20 until the end of august. Guy is a baby for a college Soph. Seeing his game improve and evolve, as a somewhat unknown foreign college player has been fun. I think both guys are in the same tier. My preference would be Barnes because I think he has more physical potential, while possessing a lot of the same skills.......but to me, Barnes and Franz are certainly in that select group of players 4-9, who I think could really go in any order.

 

[daddywags]

I'm going to keep beating this drum: we're last in the league in scoring, last in 3 point attempts and 3-pointers made. Last year we used a 5th overall pick on a guy who scored 12.9 ppg in college and shot 28% from 3. Not surprisingly, he's struggling to score in the NBA. Do we really want to use another top 8 pick on a player who averaged just 12.5 ppg (Wagner) or 10.3 ppg (Barnes)? Wagner managed 34% on 3s at least but Barnes was 27%. I just couldn't understand that thinking. But I am far from any sort of expert at this.

 

[Nathan S]

I'm going to keep beating this drum: we're last in the league in scoring, last in 3 point attempts and 3-pointers made. Last year we used a 5th overall pick on a guy who scored 12.9 ppg in college and shot 28% from 3. Not surprisingly, he's struggling to score in the NBA. Do we really want to use another top 8 pick on a player who averaged just 12.5 ppg (Wagner) or 10.3 ppg (Barnes)? Wagner managed 34% on 3s at least but Barnes was 27%. I just couldn't understand that thinking. But I am far from any sort of expert at this.

I think the hope is that Sexland develops into an elite scoring backcourt. If that happens, then we surround those two with skilled defenders (Okoro, Nance, Allen, Barnes/Wagner) and we have a solid two-way team. I have to admit I'm not sure that's a realistic hope.

 

[Rich]

I'm going to keep beating this drum: we're last in the league in scoring, last in 3 point attempts and 3-pointers made. Last year we used a 5th overall pick on a guy who scored 12.9 ppg in college and shot 28% from 3. Not surprisingly, he's struggling to score in the NBA. Do we really want to use another top 8 pick on a player who averaged just 12.5 ppg (Wagner) or 10.3 ppg (Barnes)? Wagner managed 34% on 3s at least but Barnes was 27%. I just couldn't understand that thinking. But I am far from any sort of expert at this.

I follow so little college ball but I'm with you.

We need someone with length who can shoot 3s. Or at least projects as becoming a good 3 point shooter.

 

[Rich]

I think the hope is that Sexland develops into an elite scoring backcourt. If that happens, then we surround those two with skilled defenders (Okoro, Nance, Allen, Barnes/Wagner) and we have a solid two-way team. I have to admit I'm not sure that's a realistic hope.

Yea its just that they need space and/or Garland needs to remake the way he tries to score.

Right now both want to get to the rim first. The guys around them need to be able to shoot.

 

[adam81king]

I'm going to keep beating this drum: we're last in the league in scoring, last in 3 point attempts and 3-pointers made. Last year we used a 5th overall pick on a guy who scored 12.9 ppg in college and shot 28% from 3. Not surprisingly, he's struggling to score in the NBA. Do we really want to use another top 8 pick on a player who averaged just 12.5 ppg (Wagner) or 10.3 ppg (Barnes)? Wagner managed 34% on 3s at least but Barnes was 27%. I just couldn't understand that thinking. But I am far from any sort of expert at this.

I've been clamoring for an elite scorer (an alpha) for over a year now. Even if Garland and Sexton turn into elite scorers, basketball teams need guys that can score multiple ways from multiple places on the floor. Relying on your two guards to be your main source of scoring is gonna ensure you don't win many important games. We need wings and forwards that can put the ball in the basket on a regular basis. Maybe we'll get one one day.