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2021 NBA Draft Safari

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This has probably been discussed, but can Sengun effectively play the 4 next to Jarrett Allen?

From all the film I’ve seen I think no.... outside shot clearly needs a ton of work and where he does his most damage is around the block.

Others on this forum think he’s a great fit next to Allen but I’ve seen nothing on tape to agree with that viewpoint
 
In 25 minutes today, Sengun accumulated 31 points (11/12 from the field, 9/10 from the line), 10 boards, 3 assists, 2 steals and 2 blocks. The insane level of his production gives me the same perspective on his fit with Allen that many people take with Mobley and Allen. Maybe it's not an ideal fit, but when you're drafting that kind of talent, who cares.
 
In 25 minutes today, Sengun accumulated 31 points (11/12 from the field, 9/10 from the line), 10 boards, 3 assists, 2 steals and 2 blocks. The insane level of his production gives me the same perspective on his fit with Allen that many people take with Mobley and Allen. Maybe it's not an ideal fit, but when you're drafting that kind of talent, who cares.
Guys rarely step in and contribute in a meaningful way as rooks anyways. Plus, even if it turns out to be a bad fit, we'd likely be looking at trading Allen (in a year or two) who will still be in his early 20's. Hardly a bad spot to be in.
 
Guys rarely step in and contribute in a meaningful way as rooks anyways. Plus, even if it turns out to be a bad fit, we'd likely be looking at trading Allen (in a year or two) who will still be in his early 20's. Hardly a bad spot to be in.

Also wanna point out though, that just in the last several years we've had Markkanen, Hernangomez, Saric, Jokic, Porzingis, and Mirotic make the All-Rookie 1st team. So it's not a rare thing for Euro bigs to come in and make an immediate impact, and Sengun's arguably producing at a higher level than any of those guys going into the draft.
 
Guys rarely step in and contribute in a meaningful way as rooks anyways. Plus, even if it turns out to be a bad fit, we'd likely be looking at trading Allen (in a year or two) who will still be in his early 20's. Hardly a bad spot to be in.
Reminds me a bit of the Pacers situation with having Turner then trading for Sabonis (then drafting Bitadze).

Sabonis and Turner aren't a great fit, but Indiana's been a tough team with these two. Sabonis's development has made Turner expendable, and it's not really the Pacers' fault that Turner has lost a lot of his value around the league.
 
In 25 minutes today, Sengun accumulated 31 points (11/12 from the field, 9/10 from the line), 10 boards, 3 assists, 2 steals and 2 blocks. The insane level of his production gives me the same perspective on his fit with Allen that many people take with Mobley and Allen. Maybe it's not an ideal fit, but when you're drafting that kind of talent, who cares.

Yikes

This guy plays like Oliver Miller or Eddy Curry before they got to the pro's and ate themselves out of the league. At 18, his build (most notably his legs) scare the hell out of me. His best case scenario as his body matures will be staying as fit as Enes Kanter but having the offensive ability of Jonas on those Lithuanian teams where he played like a poor mans Sabonis.

Segun does not compare to Evan Mobley

His offensive rebounding reminds me of Enes Kanter in those Turkish B league clips and the full World vs US prep game I watched many times before that Kyrie/Tristan draft. Segun has good timing for rebounding but mostly relies on his trunk like base making him an immovable force on the glass (at 6'9 over there, it works, but wont get it done here)

He doesnt have the floor spacing of Mirotic

The unique guard like mobility, defensive agility and shooting at 7'3 of Porzingis

The anything of Jokic (maybe the bull in china shop of unrefined Nurk, but not the offensive touch Nurk had even before being traded from Denver to Portland - I really wanted him)

The face-up game and IQ of Saric (undervalued, modern day Dino Radja but game has evolved)

The perimeter game of Lauri (he showed so much more physicality at Arizona, I bet he would turn the corner in a new environment)

I never watched Hernangomez prior to him popping up on my radar as a rook with Knicks. Didn't even remember him checking in on any of those Spanish National teams, so maybe you can put Segun above him. (shrugs)

But that's it. If he's a lottery pick (Giddey too), he's going to cost a GM their job.

But I promise, I love your enthusiasm for him
 
Yikes

This guy plays like Oliver Miller or Eddy Curry before they got to the pro's and ate themselves out of the league. At 18, his build (most notably his legs) scare the hell out of me. His best case scenario as his body matures will be staying as fit as Enes Kanter but having the offensive ability of Jonas on those Lithuanian teams where he played like a poor mans Sabonis.

Segun does not compare to Evan Mobley

His offensive rebounding reminds me of Enes Kanter in those Turkish B league clips and the full World vs US prep game I watched many times before that Kyrie/Tristan draft. Segun has good timing for rebounding but mostly relies on his trunk like base making him an immovable force on the glass (at 6'9 over there, it works, but wont get it done here)

He doesnt have the floor spacing of Mirotic

The unique guard like mobility, defensive agility and shooting at 7'3 of Porzingis

The anything of Jokic (maybe the bull in china shop of unrefined Nurk, but not the offensive touch Nurk had even before being traded from Denver to Portland - I really wanted him)

The face-up game and IQ of Saric (undervalued, modern day Dino Radja but game has evolved)

The perimeter game of Lauri (he showed so much more physicality at Arizona, I bet he would turn the corner in a new environment)

I never watched Hernangomez prior to him popping up on my radar as a rook with Knicks. Didn't even remember him checking in on any of those Spanish National teams, so maybe you can put Segun above him. (shrugs)

But that's it. If he's a lottery pick (Giddey too), he's going to cost a GM their job.

But I promise, I love your enthusiasm for him

There's a lot to talk about here. I guess, first off, let's talk about his frame, because his improvement there has been a big key to his breakout season.


I'm linking this video not to suggest that he's going to be shooting 1-legged stepback 3's, but because it's an unobstructed view of his frame and how he moves. You can see that he has a strong lower body, but he's not carrying much extra weight around his midsection at all. He's not the most physically massive center in the Turkish league, not even close. You mention Tristan, and it occurs to me that Sengun's body and athleticism are pretty similar to Tristan's at the same age. Not unusually big or bulky, but very strong in the lower body, with that all-important motor and willingness to seek out contact.

In this highlight, which I posted earlier, you can see that he's not actually any bulkier than Grant Jerrett who's lined up next to him:

HAxej.jpg


Jerrett is well aware of Sengun's offensive rebounding ability, and tries to stay in a low stance and use his bulk to hold him off:

HAxi8.jpg


As the ball comes off the rim, Jerrett still appears to have decent position:

HAxl8.jpg


But Sengun is much quicker off the ground, and that makes the difference:

HAxnn.jpg


Here it is all together:


This is very reminiscent of a play a young Tristan would make. He's not necessarily physically larger than his opponent...often he may be a little smaller. But he knows where he needs to be, he has the strong lower body to get himself there, and he has the timing and quick-twitch athleticism to get to the ball before anyone else.


The other factor at play here is his skill development. What's really telling is that you can't compare him to most other prospects at the same age, because most other prospects didn't have any kind of professional or collegiate track record at age 18. For example, if Sengun could ignore eligibility issues and play NCAA ball next year in the 2021-22 season, he'd still be a younger freshman than Lauri was.

Those who were playing were typically playing small roles. Here's how their averages looked:

Porzingis - 6.9 points, 2.8 boards, 0.3 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.9 blocks per game
Valanciunas - 7.7 points, 5.8 boards, 0.2 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.7 blocks per game
Jokic - 11.3 points, 6.3 boards, 2.5 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.8 blocks per game
Nurkic - 5.3 points, 2.8 boards, 0.4 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.6 blocks per game
Saric - 11.5 points, 7.3 boards, 2.2 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.8 blocks per game

Compared to Sengun

Sengun - 19.7 points, 9.2 boards, 2.5 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.6 blocks per game

The difference is so large that I couldn't believe it at first. My first thought was, the Turkish League must be a joke these days for an 18-year-old to come in and dominate like this. More so, not an 18-year-old who's a 7'0" 270 pound behemoth like Nurkic, or a 7'3" freak like Porzingis, but just a fairly ordinary-looking 6'10" 240 pound big. Level of competition is certainly a factor in these comparisons; Saric, for instance, had his numbers inflated a bit playing against very weak Croatian League competition, while Valanciunas had a tougher task against top-shelf Euroleague competition.

But as I looked into it more, I saw that the Turkish League hasn't actually declined at all. Two days ago, Efes stomped Real Madrid 90-63 in the Euroleague playoffs. Even the absolute worst Turkish League teams are riddled with guys who were elite NCAA players and have NBA connections. This is a strong league with a lot of talented players, and Sengun is marmalizing them almost every single game. That reality is completely inconsistent with the mainstream characterization of him as this raw 18-year-old who's nothing special physically. The player scouting reports describe should have a hard time getting off the bench in such a strong professional league, let alone winning MVP. But instead you have a player who's scoring more than Wiltjer, rebounding more than Thomas Robinson, and getting more steals+blocks than Vesely, all at the age of 18.

The only way to explain all this is that Sengun is an elite talent, and he's hiding in plain sight. This is in contrast to the case of Pokusevski last year, for instance. He was playing weak competition and had some serious flaws that prevented him from dominating, but had an interesting mix of statistical factors that got me thinking about his long-term NBA potential. Sengun's case is much, much more straight forward...there's nothing subtle about it, no intricate projecting to do. He's playing strong competition and he's dominating that competition right now. If Josiah-Jordan James or Miles McBride develops into a NBA star I deserve a pat on the back, but identifying Sengun as an elite prospect took embarrassingly little skill on my part. As was the case with Doncic, it's just recognizing what's already (painfully) obvious to the professional teams tasked with trying to slow Sengun down.
 
There's a lot to talk about here. I guess, first off, let's talk about his frame, because his improvement there has been a big key to his breakout season.


I'm linking this video not to suggest that he's going to be shooting 1-legged stepback 3's, but because it's an unobstructed view of his frame and how he moves. You can see that he has a strong lower body, but he's not carrying much extra weight around his midsection at all. He's not the most physically massive center in the Turkish league, not even close. You mention Tristan, and it occurs to me that Sengun's body and athleticism are pretty similar to Tristan's at the same age. Not unusually big or bulky, but very strong in the lower body, with that all-important motor and willingness to seek out contact.

In this highlight, which I posted earlier, you can see that he's not actually any bulkier than Grant Jerrett who's lined up next to him:

HAxej.jpg


Jerrett is well aware of Sengun's offensive rebounding ability, and tries to stay in a low stance and use his bulk to hold him off:

HAxi8.jpg


As the ball comes off the rim, Jerrett still appears to have decent position:

HAxl8.jpg


But Sengun is much quicker off the ground, and that makes the difference:

HAxnn.jpg


Here it is all together:


This is very reminiscent of a play a young Tristan would make. He's not necessarily physically larger than his opponent...often he may be a little smaller. But he knows where he needs to be, he has the strong lower body to get himself there, and he has the timing and quick-twitch athleticism to get to the ball before anyone else.


The other factor at play here is his skill development. What's really telling is that you can't compare him to most other prospects at the same age, because most other prospects didn't have any kind of professional or collegiate track record at age 18. For example, if Sengun could ignore eligibility issues and play NCAA ball next year in the 2021-22 season, he'd still be a younger freshman than Lauri was.

Those who were playing were typically playing small roles. Here's how their averages looked:

Porzingis - 6.9 points, 2.8 boards, 0.3 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.9 blocks per game
Valanciunas - 7.7 points, 5.8 boards, 0.2 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.7 blocks per game
Jokic - 11.3 points, 6.3 boards, 2.5 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.8 blocks per game
Nurkic - 5.3 points, 2.8 boards, 0.4 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.6 blocks per game
Saric - 11.5 points, 7.3 boards, 2.2 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.8 blocks per game

Compared to Sengun

Sengun - 19.7 points, 9.2 boards, 2.5 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.6 blocks per game

The difference is so large that I couldn't believe it at first. My first thought was, the Turkish League must be a joke these days for an 18-year-old to come in and dominate like this. More so, not an 18-year-old who's a 7'0" 270 pound behemoth like Nurkic, or a 7'3" freak like Porzingis, but just a fairly ordinary-looking 6'10" 240 pound big. Level of competition is certainly a factor in these comparisons; Saric, for instance, had his numbers inflated a bit playing against very weak Croatian League competition, while Valanciunas had a tougher task against top-shelf Euroleague competition.

But as I looked into it more, I saw that the Turkish League hasn't actually declined at all. Two days ago, Efes stomped Real Madrid 90-63 in the Euroleague playoffs. Even the absolute worst Turkish League teams are riddled with guys who were elite NCAA players and have NBA connections. This is a strong league with a lot of talented players, and Sengun is marmalizing them almost every single game. That reality is completely inconsistent with the mainstream characterization of him as this raw 18-year-old who's nothing special physically. The player scouting reports describe should have a hard time getting off the bench in such a strong professional league, let alone winning MVP. But instead you have a player who's scoring more than Wiltjer, rebounding more than Thomas Robinson, and getting more steals+blocks than Vesely, all at the age of 18.

The only way to explain all this is that Sengun is an elite talent, and he's hiding in plain sight. This is in contrast to the case of Pokusevski last year, for instance. He was playing weak competition and had some serious flaws that prevented him from dominating, but had an interesting mix of statistical factors that got me thinking about his long-term NBA potential. Sengun's case is much, much more straight forward...there's nothing subtle about it, no intricate projecting to do. He's playing strong competition and he's dominating that competition right now. If Josiah-Jordan James or Miles McBride develops into a NBA star I deserve a pat on the back, but identifying Sengun as an elite prospect took embarrassingly little skill on my part. As was the case with Doncic, it's just recognizing what's already (painfully) obvious to the professional teams tasked with trying to slow Sengun down.

Goddamnit...

I trust you enough to read this, give you props for putting it together and bookmark it for myself so I can look into this kid deeper when I get home this evening.

@Nathan S well done, for now. I'll be back :chuckle:
 
The easiest explanation for how I feel about Sengun is........

I watch his tape and think to myself......."If someone did not tell me what his stats were, would I like this guy?" :chuckle:

I don't know if that is fair.........but I watch him.......and I'm always thinking to myself "the eye test just does not add up here for me".

He is the guy I genuinely don't know what to do with.

There is such a huge gulf in their ratings in my stuff but I watch someone like Isaiah Jackson and it is really tough for me to convince myself that relative to his skill / athleticism / elite hustle and size, that someone like Sengun would be a better pro than him.
 
Just awful. Don’t even know what else to say. Prayers up to his family.
 
Apparently BJ Boston was in the car behind him as it happened leaving workouts. Clarke just signed with Klutch the day before. Ridiculously awful....
 
Apparently BJ Boston was in the car behind him as it happened leaving workouts. Clarke just signed with Klutch the day before. Ridiculously awful....

Ugh.......hopefully this isn't a Bobby Phils type situation. That is a heavy burden for someone to carry with them the rest of their life.

Just a terrible story.
 
I think I like following the draft because it's so much fun to see NBA dreams come true for these kids. Shellshocked and devastated for Clarke and his family. The world is so cruel sometimes.
 

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