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Ozone

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I hope we can land another pick. Look at how fast Atlanta was able to rebuild due to getting multiple picks and hitting on them.
They draft well for the most part, but the key to their recent improvement really was Bogey . I think when they got Trae instead of Doncic it's not a bad trade off, but really not that smart . Not when all they got for the discount was Reddish, who is not very good so far.
Young is going to be in trouble if the league really does reform it's rules about unorthodox shooting fouls. As smart as he is, nobody likes it in excess, nobody that I know of. I think the change was kind of expected as soon as he hit the playoffs being the worst of the bunch at it and doing what he does against the Knicks, playing Villain. Him and Harden have pushed the limits this season like a junkie who can't get enough free throws, where other players and coaches are complaining a lot.
 

Nathan S

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That's a wrap for Garuba's season; he finishes with another dud (4 points, 3 boards, 2 steals) in a blowout loss. Overall he totaled more fouls (9) than anything else in two games against Barca. Not completely unsurprising for a young player on a big stage against a great team, but does take some of the luster off his recent success.

Not quite sure when's the right time to make a big board...all the major prospects have finally finished their regular seasons, but then there's the combine next week, and Olympic qualifiers the week after that before things finally settle down.
 

MirORich

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Based on these two tweets, it would seem that at least as of today Barnes, Kuminga, and Green will participate in some portions of the draft combine
 

Randolphkeys

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He absolutely loves to hound guards and smaller wings on the perimeter. That's where his quickness, length, IQ, and reflexes all seem to work together for him. He's alright in the paint, but not a guy who naturally has great timing as a rim protector, and not an overly physical rebounder. That's my take at least.

Barnes is definitely a small forward both offensively and defensively. Draymond has so many parallels. The biggest of course being an initiator on offense at that size but lacking a consistent jump shot.

What really stands out is his comfort level communicating on defense. That's both in switching on and off ball. I'd go a step further in saying Draymond doesn't like guarding smaller, quick players as much as Barnes.

The Cavs can do far worse than falling out of the top 7 and still landing Barnes.
 

inliner311

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I just realized we could see some of these prospects play a couple Olympic games before draft night.

Is there anyone besides Giddey that will be playing for their national team that we should be watching?
 

Nathan S

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I just realized we could see some of these prospects play a couple Olympic games before draft night.

Is there anyone besides Giddey that will be playing for their national team that we should be watching?

-Garuba could play for Spain, but he may struggle to find minutes behind the Gasol bros, the Hernangomez bros, Ibaka, and Mirotic.

-Giddey's in a similar position for Australia, as they also have Simmons, Ingles, and Mills who can run the offense.

-Sengun will play for Turkey in Olympic qualifiers at the end of this month. Turkey is likely to lean heavily on his production, and they face a very difficult task in a group that also includes Greece and Canada.

-Jokubaitis will play for Lithuania in the qualifiers, and he has a decent chance to make an impression, especially if Lithuania faces Doncic and the stacked Slovenian team.

-Petrusev will play for Serbia in the qualifiers; they're actually a little thin at PF so he could end up playing next to Jokic, which would be fun. They'll expect to easily win the bid in their group.

-Prkacin was not picked for Croatia

I think that's all?
 

Ozone

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Nathan S

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Finalized my statistical rankings. The Model-SOS-Rank Blend column at the end pretty closely resembles my current "big board," though based on my own gut feeling/film/combine measurements I may move guys up or down a few spots. Of course, since the final column accounts for consensus mock draft position (now somewhat out of date), those numbers are also subject to change if prospects rise/fall significantly in mock drafts.

 

B Mac

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Finalized my statistical rankings. The Model-SOS-Rank Blend column at the end pretty closely resembles my current "big board," though based on my own gut feeling/film/combine measurements I may move guys up or down a few spots. Of course, since the final column accounts for consensus mock draft position (now somewhat out of date), those numbers are also subject to change if prospects rise/fall significantly in mock drafts.


Thanks for taking the time to do this and sharing!

I know youve posted them in the past, but would you mind reminding us of your big board for the past few drafts as well?
 

Nathan S

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Thanks for taking the time to do this and sharing!

I know youve posted them in the past, but would you mind reminding us of your big board for the past few drafts as well?

Sure:

Hmmm...

Of course, I'm keen to remember the ones I was right on :chuckle: . I was very high on Luka, and low on Bamba. I think we both liked Zhaire Smith, which looks pretty bad. I liked Dion and was lukewarm on Tristan.

Here are my big boards from the last few years:

2020


2019


2018


2017

Didn't post a big board, but liked Ball and Fultz like (almost) everyone else. RIP.

2016

Hated this draft, didn't really scout it :chuckle:

2015

I remember liking Porzingis and hating Okafor. Was probably wrong about some stuff too, but selective memory lol.

2014

Conversation on here was all Wiggins vs Parker, and I was kinda low on both. If I'd been smarter I would've gotten on the Embiid train.

2013

Despised Bennett. Liked Porter, Oladipo, Noel, and MCW.

2012

Liked Dion (oops)

2011

Fully sold on Kyrie, less than enthusiastic about TT. Disliked Klay (oops) but liked Kawhi (yay).

2010 and earlier never really scouted.
 

Ozone

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Finalized my statistical rankings. The Model-SOS-Rank Blend column at the end pretty closely resembles my current "big board," though based on my own gut feeling/film/combine measurements I may move guys up or down a few spots. Of course, since the final column accounts for consensus mock draft position (now somewhat out of date), those numbers are also subject to change if prospects rise/fall significantly in mock drafts.

What stands out to me is how one of the most highly touted, offensive gifted, and really 1 way focused player pre draft, like Jalen Green, is not looking so good in this stat ranking. Where as a guy who can't shoot, but can do everything else like Barnes, is seen in a favorable light.
Interesting stuff but all kind of grain of salt stuff too imo
 

I'mWithDan

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Finalized my statistical rankings. The Model-SOS-Rank Blend column at the end pretty closely resembles my current "big board," though based on my own gut feeling/film/combine measurements I may move guys up or down a few spots. Of course, since the final column accounts for consensus mock draft position (now somewhat out of date), those numbers are also subject to change if prospects rise/fall significantly in mock drafts.


There's a lot of overlap in our models for the top guys.

It likes Sengun and Mobley alot. Likes Barnes, Green, Suggs, Wagner.

It splits off on Cade and Kuminga.

My stuff places Kuminga in the "are we sure we are really sure" category. :chuckle:

Cade it slots squarely in the group of NBA wings who have had a lot of recent NBA success.

Really curious to see how someone like Barnes measures and tests....as he (to me), is the guy who will likely push Kuminga out of the top 5 if he tests well.
 
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Ozone

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There's a lot of overlap in our models for the top guys.

It likes Sengun and Mobley alot. Likes Barnes, Green, Suggs, Wagner.

It splits off on Cade and Kuminga.

My stuff places Kuminga in the "are we sure we are really sure" category. :chuckle:

Cade it slots squarely in the group of NBA wings who have had a lot of recent NBA success.

Really curious to see how someone like Barnes measures and tests....as he (to me), is the guy who will likely push Kuminga out of the top 5 if he tests well.
I think that people forget Kuminga has been playing in the states for 5 years. He is not some raw height weight speed guy from some remote village in the middle of nowhere and nothing else. His court awareness is quite good for his age. His shot selection and deep shooting itself need some work about as much as Okoro. Kuminga has a blossoming pull up game at closer range, and the huge draw imo is he can handle the ball well and finish above the rim with authority. He also can finish from a standing position with a defender in his face. That kind of explosiveness is what separates him as a player from many others, but it's not his only ability or something. I see flashes of playmaking as well
 

I'mWithDan

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These will adjust slightly as people have more of an athletic opinion. I don't personally do that. I tend to lean on guys who compile athletic or player tracking data for an athletic assessment. It is really just meant to separate two guys who net out similarly. Right now, each has their age input but a generic athletic number.

Screen-Shot-2021-06-16-at-2-56-46-PM.png


Really, what you see is how damn strong this draft is from a profile perspective. Really, the top 13, with the exception of Kuminga, have just unusually strong draft slot value. Green is a near median player against pro competition, which is a strong indicator. Kuminga was a rather poor impact player in the G-League and the especially concerning non scoring number as well (GS/ADJ) as a compounding negative. Relative to his size and athleticism, his hustle numbers are bad.

Guys who my stuff would identify as "clean" prospects.....i.e. median or better in each calculation:

Mobley, Suggs, Sengun, Johnson, Wagner, Kispert, Mitchell, Jackson and Butler.

Cade just missed, as his turnovers are such a negative anchor on his non scoring calculation.

I left Kuminga in the top 6, tools wise....but on a final big board, I suspect I would have him more in the #10 range......behind Sengun, Johnson and Wagner.
 
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kriegs

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Finalized my statistical rankings. The Model-SOS-Rank Blend column at the end pretty closely resembles my current "big board," though based on my own gut feeling/film/combine measurements I may move guys up or down a few spots. Of course, since the final column accounts for consensus mock draft position (now somewhat out of date), those numbers are also subject to change if prospects rise/fall significantly in mock drafts.

Liddell might actually be good? Here's to hoping he stays a Buckeye for one more year
 

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