2021 NBA Draft Safari

[Kouki]

@Nathan S I've been very critical of Mobley. One reason is that I think his playmaking and shot creation is overrated.

Do you have access to advanced stats? I can't find anything online. I'm really curious to see what his FG% is on assisted vs. unassisted shots.

 

[Nathan S]

I really enjoy Vecenie & Matt Pennie's Draft Theory podcast. It's clear these guys do a ton of research and know what they are talking about.

If anything, I think their bias tends to lie with players who were highly touted throughout their prep career. It would be hard for them not to be since they are involved with that circuit. It's the opposite of @Nathan S and @I'mWithDan's spreadsheets, since we only have one year of data on most of these guys at the NCAA level, their findings will naturally be biased AGAINST players who might have shown certain skills before they got on campus. It can't possibly capture the background of the player and how they got where they are right now.

The truth is probably somewhere in between. I value both perspectives and the work that goes into them.

To be clear, I'd never advocate for drafting players *strictly* based on one year of college box score stats. That's a big reason why, unlike every other person who's made a draft prediction model (that I'm aware of), I went through the trouble of calculating uncertainties in my projections. These help me estimate how far I should let other sources of information sway me from the model projection.

Cade for instance checks in at a projected -1 impact with an uncertainty of +/- 2. Scouts love him (some of them anyway), so I can be swayed into thinking he's really at the upper end of that range, with a likely outcome around +1 impact (good starter level). But I'm not going to be swayed into thinking his likely outcome is +5 impact (superstar level).

Sengun has a projected impact of +6.5 with an uncertainty of +/- 4.5, so I could be swayed into thinking his likely outcome is "only" +2 impact (a borderline All-Star). But I won't be swayed into thinking that he's likely to be a bench player.

To give one last example, Greg Brown checks in at -4.2 with an uncertainty of only +/- 1.2. This is a rare case where I'm comfortable saying, with relative certainty, that his likely outcome is sub-replacement level (no better than -3 impact), i.e. a bust. Kispert and Ziaire Williams aren't much better at -3.6 and -3.8 respectively with uncertainties of +/- 1.5. At the absolute best they project to be 15 mpg bench shooting specialists, and anything beyond that is an extremely unlikely outcome.

 

[bronko]

Coach, I dont get it. Like, the research is the FUN part. I've been breaking down film since I played and it's the easiest part of this unhealthy relationship I have with this sport.

I've got calls all morning for work but in the background on mute, I've got Undisputed started and I'm prepared to start that series you recommended with the AAU program right after. I've also got 2 full game files for my niece who is getting ready to be the starting center for Hiedelberg's girls team next year for her Junior year. She's on her way to Nashville tomorrow and is asking me to break down her two best games and I'm happy to do it.

How do these guys get paid for this and not love it?

View attachment 6124

That's a room I could spend some time in. Nice setup.

 

[Nathan S]

@Nathan S I've been very critical of Mobley. One reason is that I think his playmaking and shot creation is overrated.

Do you have access to advanced stats? I can't find anything online. I'm really curious to see what his FG% is on assisted vs. unassisted shots.

I don't have access to any kind of special advanced stats other than what I produce myself. As for Mobley's playmaking, as I've pointed out before, he has the highest assists per game average of any 1-and-done center prospect in NBA history as far as I know. I'm a little wary of his scoring potential, but I fully buy his playmaking potential.

 

[Amherstcavsfan]

I don't have access to any kind of special advanced stats other than what I produce myself. As for Mobley's playmaking, as I've pointed out before, he has the highest assists per game average of any 1-and-done center prospect in NBA history as far as I know. I'm a little wary of his scoring potential, but I fully buy his playmaking potential.

Where does he rank as a wing/pf prospect?

 

[STAT]

I got to "Cunningham is a tremendous finisher at the rim" and had to stop. Some of the takes I've read on Cade are so far removed from reality that I just can't take them seriously

Vecenie does offer support for his statement: Cunningham shot 62.1% at the rim in half court settings. I imagine that’s at least a good number in the NCAA—though admittedly don’t know.

Are you taking issue with “tremendous” as hyperbolic from a numbers perspective? Or, that Cunningham doesn’t look all that impressive finishing to your (and others’ here) eye?

 

[Derek]

Vecenie does offer support for his statement: Cunningham shot 62.1% at the rim in half court settings. I imagine that’s at least a good number in the NCAA—though admittedly don’t know.

Are you taking issue with “tremendous” as hyperbolic from a numbers perspective? Or, that Cunningham doesn’t look all that impressive finishing to your (and others’ here) eye?

Cade really struggled to score inside the arc and did not do well with contact at all. That's one of the reasons he had such a poor 2P% (.461) and ended up abandoning his inside the arc game down the stretch.

 

[Nathan S]

Vecenie does offer support for his statement: Cunningham shot 62.1% at the rim in half court settings. I imagine that’s at least a good number in the NCAA—though admittedly don’t know.

Are you taking issue with “tremendous” as hyperbolic from a numbers perspective? Or, that Cunningham doesn’t look all that impressive finishing to your (and others’ here) eye?

Yeah...62.1% definitely seems adequate. Anything in the 50's would start to get worrisome, because it's certainly not getting easier against NBA length and athleticism. But "tremendous"? I can't imagine 62.1% at the rim is an above-average number for a lottery-bound wing.

Then there's another factor, which is shooting volume at the rim. Even if we say 62.1% is a tremendous percentage, which I really don't think it is, you can't call him a tremendous finisher if he only gets to the rim once in a blue moon.

And, of course, there's the issue that he's almost exclusively a below-the-rim finisher, which is extremely unusual for a player with his size/length. I looked up stats on his dunks, and he had just 1 (successful) dunk in his last 19 games. That's unbelievably bad for a lottery wing. Of course, it's possible to be a great player, and even a great finisher, without dunking. But dunks aren't going out of style...as far as I know, they were the most efficient shot in basketball for the 45th straight season last year. So if a player isn't dunking, I'd probably acknowledge that weakness in a 2-page writeup

 

[MD13]

Another bizarre take that Vecenie has is that you don’t want to draft Mobley and pay Allen, it’s too many resources devoted into the C position. I think playing Mobley as a C for the majority of his minutes is just going to wear him down and put him at much higher risk of injuries, but what do I know.

Even a complete freak like Giannis isn’t playing C until really important minutes despite being unstoppable there because you want as little wear and tear on your stars as possible.

 

[JJ_PR]

I personally would take Barnes over Mobley. We don't need another big with Allen here. The only way I take him is if Altman thinks Mobley has a much higher ceiling than Allen. I don't think that's the case.

My draft board is:
1. Cunningham
2. Green
3. Barnes
4. Mobley
5. Suggs

I hope the Rockets go with Mobley so we can draft Green.

 

[Nathan S]

Where does he rank as a wing/pf prospect?

If you go purely by model output (which I don't recommend), then he comes out in the late lottery range. If you take a reasonable blend of model output and consensus scout rank, then he comes out either 2nd or 3rd. My model doesn't classify by position, so that's not really a factor.

 

[STAT]

Appreciate the responses @Derek and @Nathan S . So Cade may be an effective finisher, but it’s mostly below the rim (weird for a big wing), and perhaps most concerningly, he doesn’t actually finish at the rim all that often. Not great.

That also seems to accord with what is a fairly sunny write-up of him on nba.com: “[Cade shot] 1.33 points per shot around the rim (82nd percentile). Though he showed the ability to score with both hands and finish above the rim in spots when he could find lanes to the rim, over half of his shots last season were pull-up jumpers or floaters as driving lanes were not easy to come by.”

NBA 2021 Draft Prospects | Cade Cunningham | NBA.com

NBA 2021 Draft Prospects | Cade Cunningham

www.nba.com

 

[benchplayer]

is this confirmation that it was Houston that promised to draft him?

 

[inliner311]

Another bizarre take that Vecenie has is that you don’t want to draft Mobley and pay Allen, it’s too many resources devoted into the C position. I think playing Mobley as a C for the majority of his minutes is just going to wear him down and put him at much higher risk of injuries, but what do I know.

Even a complete freak like Giannis isn’t playing C until really important minutes despite being unstoppable there because you want as little wear and tear on your stars as possible.

I think we should want Mobley to have the flexibility to figure out what position suits him best. If Mobley is going to play center in the biggest moments then we are underutilizing Allen for the money he is being pay. We might be able to get the same production as Allen from someone cheaper.

Also we should want the flexibility to figure out who works with Mobley or anyone we pick at #3. We need Allen on a contract that is very movable just in case. We want to be able to swap pieces not take on a bad contract or expiring to get a draft pick.

 

[inliner311]

is this confirmation that it was Houston that promised to draft him?

I wouldn't say it confirmation. Green could work out with both the Pistons and Houston then his agent will assess if he has to work out with anyone else. Garland didn't work out with anyone until late because I think they thought he was a lock to go #4 to the Lakers but when they moved that pick he opened up workouts.