I think it is a long shot for sure. He has really good numbers. Like shockingly good per 100, compared to the average NBA small forward prospect. His scoring volume lags a bit but Wagner has a good chance to land in the top 14-15 of NBA SF prospects in the possession era, in the PDIFF metric I follow most closely. Looking at the names, the hit rate is extremely high. Out of the guys with 3-4+ years service time, KJ McDaniels is really the only guy who was healthy and wasn't a good NBA player. The rest of the guys are people like Durant, Simmons, Crowder, Porter, George, Kawhi, OG, Covington, Warren, etc. And the "jury out" small forwards are players like Cam Johnson, Mikal Bridges, etc......who are guys who look like they will be top 10 VORP players in their respective classes.
Pretty amazing a player like that will be a fringe lotto pick. Speaks to how good this draft will likely be.