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The Indians hit the road for a weekend series at Camden Yards against the last place O's, who have lost 21 of their last 25 games after starting the season 15-16. They won their last two against the Twins to stop a 14-game losing streak. However, 14 of their last 21 losses have come against Boston, New York, Tampa, and the White Sox. The O's have played the fourth most difficult schedule according to powerrankingsguru.com. It sucks to be in the same division with the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, and Jays.
My guess is they're not as bad as their record.
They rank 12th in the A.L. in scoring at 3.84 runs per game. The Indians are at 3.98, so don't expect too many runs this weekend. However, ESPN ranks Camden Yards as the seventh best park for hitters with a park factor of 1.23 where 1.00 is neutral.
The O's pitching staff ranks 14th in ERA (4.91), 13th in WHIP, and last in home runs per 9 innings. Camden Yards is the second easiest park to homer in so we may see some long balls this weekend.
FanGraphs has the Orioles with a wRC+ of 94 compared to 86 for the Tribe, for what it's worth.
Trey Mancini is their big gun offensively, hitting .284/.874 with 44 RBI in 54 games. He's on a roll, hitting .320/.993 in May. He also hits .323/1.059 at home, so they might want to pitch around him when possible. However, he's hitting .261/.780 against RHP so most of his damage has been done against lefties, of which he may not see any this series.
Cedric Mullins has a line of .298/.838 but only 14 RBI's. He hit .255/.732 in May after hitting .337 in April, so he's cooling off.
Freddy Galvis has a line of .244/.785 but hits only .226 against RHP's. Other than these three nobody is having much of a year with the bat.
Tonight J.C. Mejia gets his first big league start against lefty Keegan Akin, a 26-year-old with a total of 40 big league innings. Akin has pitched 15 innings this year and will be making his second start of the season. He has no record and a 4.80 ERA, allowing 17 hits but only 3 walks in those 15 innings. In his first start he held the White Sox to one run in 4.2 innings, throwing 94 pitches.
Tomorrow it's Civale against another lefty, John Means. This is not a good time for Reyes and Luplow to be out. Means is 4-1, 2.05, having an All-Star season. Opposing hitters are batting .173 against him. He no-hit Seattle a few starts back. However, he's shown a few cracks lately, allowing 9 earned runs in his last three starts covering 18.1 innings.
Sunday it's TBD vs. right-hander Jorge Lopez, who has a career mark of 10-23, 5.90. This year he is 1-6, 5.29. He's hard on lefties who are hitting .205/.681 against him. Lopez was awful in April with a 7.48 ERA but has righted the ship in May with a 3.68 ERA in six starts. He's been pitching well lately.
On the surface you would think this is a soft spot in the schedule but the Birds are better than their record and they won their last two games. Means is very good and Lopez pitched well in May. Akin has mainly been a reliever but in his first start held the White Sox to one run pitching into the 5th inning. This could be a close, low scoring series decided by home runs as both teams rely heavily on the home run to score and this park is almost the easiest in baseball to homer in.
My suggestion, other than for the Indians' pitchers to not leave anything in the middle of the zone, is to run a lot. The Indians are second in the majors in stolen base percentage at 85.3%. They don't score a lot of runs. They almost never get three hits in the same inning. They need to run a lot more. It puts pressure on the pitcher and gets runners into scoring position to where a hit gets you a run. The O's are starting two lefties which will make it more difficult but the Indians can't stand around waiting for a home run or a slew of hits, especially with Reyes out. They need to force the action.
My guess is they're not as bad as their record.
They rank 12th in the A.L. in scoring at 3.84 runs per game. The Indians are at 3.98, so don't expect too many runs this weekend. However, ESPN ranks Camden Yards as the seventh best park for hitters with a park factor of 1.23 where 1.00 is neutral.
The O's pitching staff ranks 14th in ERA (4.91), 13th in WHIP, and last in home runs per 9 innings. Camden Yards is the second easiest park to homer in so we may see some long balls this weekend.
FanGraphs has the Orioles with a wRC+ of 94 compared to 86 for the Tribe, for what it's worth.
Trey Mancini is their big gun offensively, hitting .284/.874 with 44 RBI in 54 games. He's on a roll, hitting .320/.993 in May. He also hits .323/1.059 at home, so they might want to pitch around him when possible. However, he's hitting .261/.780 against RHP so most of his damage has been done against lefties, of which he may not see any this series.
Cedric Mullins has a line of .298/.838 but only 14 RBI's. He hit .255/.732 in May after hitting .337 in April, so he's cooling off.
Freddy Galvis has a line of .244/.785 but hits only .226 against RHP's. Other than these three nobody is having much of a year with the bat.
Tonight J.C. Mejia gets his first big league start against lefty Keegan Akin, a 26-year-old with a total of 40 big league innings. Akin has pitched 15 innings this year and will be making his second start of the season. He has no record and a 4.80 ERA, allowing 17 hits but only 3 walks in those 15 innings. In his first start he held the White Sox to one run in 4.2 innings, throwing 94 pitches.
Tomorrow it's Civale against another lefty, John Means. This is not a good time for Reyes and Luplow to be out. Means is 4-1, 2.05, having an All-Star season. Opposing hitters are batting .173 against him. He no-hit Seattle a few starts back. However, he's shown a few cracks lately, allowing 9 earned runs in his last three starts covering 18.1 innings.
Sunday it's TBD vs. right-hander Jorge Lopez, who has a career mark of 10-23, 5.90. This year he is 1-6, 5.29. He's hard on lefties who are hitting .205/.681 against him. Lopez was awful in April with a 7.48 ERA but has righted the ship in May with a 3.68 ERA in six starts. He's been pitching well lately.
On the surface you would think this is a soft spot in the schedule but the Birds are better than their record and they won their last two games. Means is very good and Lopez pitched well in May. Akin has mainly been a reliever but in his first start held the White Sox to one run pitching into the 5th inning. This could be a close, low scoring series decided by home runs as both teams rely heavily on the home run to score and this park is almost the easiest in baseball to homer in.
My suggestion, other than for the Indians' pitchers to not leave anything in the middle of the zone, is to run a lot. The Indians are second in the majors in stolen base percentage at 85.3%. They don't score a lot of runs. They almost never get three hits in the same inning. They need to run a lot more. It puts pressure on the pitcher and gets runners into scoring position to where a hit gets you a run. The O's are starting two lefties which will make it more difficult but the Indians can't stand around waiting for a home run or a slew of hits, especially with Reyes out. They need to force the action.
