2021 Series #33 | Indians @ Blue Jays | Aug. 2-5

[xmasbuck]

6 and 3's still a quality start?

 

[sportscoach]

6 and 3's still a quality start?

That's what is considered a quality start.

 

[xmasbuck]

7 and 3 certainly is.

 

[DCTribefan]

Another game shut out. That was fun.

 

[CDAV45]

Then find a way to make him stop pressing? I don't think there's a statistical argument to be made that he has improved significantly.

There's no statistical argument that he's what you are claiming either. It's a SSS and he has done nothing but hit the shit out of the ball other than that. If you don't think he's that good that's ok, but you're not basing it off of any substantial statistical data.

 

[CDAV45]

Another game shut out. That was fun.

I'm down with your sarcasm DC. The offense wasted a damn good start by TMac. Hats off to the kid because I thought he'd get lit up and struggle to make it past the 3rd inning.

All any team has to do to keep the Guardians at 2 or fewer runs is pitch around JRam and Reyes. After those 2 there is no one that can hit the ball with much authority or consistency. This offense is pretty fucking terrible.

 

[KluberSociety]

There's no statistical argument that he's what you are claiming either. It's a SSS and he has done nothing but hit the shit out of the ball other than that. If you don't think he's that good that's ok, but you're not basing it off of any substantial statistical data.

What exactly do you think I'm claiming? That he needs to improve to be a valuable player? Do you disagree with that?

 

[CDAV45]

What exactly do you think I'm claiming? That he needs to improve to be a valuable player? Do you disagree with that?

You're appear to be questioning Owen Miller's ability to be a good big league hitter based on a small sample. If that's not what you're doing then I apologize for the misunderstanding.

You stated that he has to either lower his strikeout rate or hit for more power and if you ignore his entire career outside of a small sample then you'd be right. He's always been a high average hitter with an excellent eye which is proven by his career 305/368/450/818 line. Clearly he got out of his "game/approach" when initially called up. So basically what he has to do is return to his normal self. I don't expect him to hit that well at the major league level because very few can do it, but he's capable of being a damn good one and his initial struggle and current SO rate are again small samples. His 64 AB so far this season are outside of his character as a whole. All I'm saying is let's get a better idea of what he can do and that will require a few hundred AB at least.

Edited to say that his defense at 2B is nothing to worry about. He's actually got a decent glove.

 

[KluberSociety]

You're appear to be questioning Owen Miller's ability to be a good big league hitter based on a small sample. If that's not what you're doing then I apologize for the misunderstanding.

You stated that he has to either lower his strikeout rate or hit for more power and if you ignore his entire career outside of a small sample then you'd be right. He's always been a high average hitter with an excellent eye which is proven by his career 305/368/450/818 line. Clearly he got out of his "game/approach" when initially called up. So basically what he has to do is return to his normal self. I don't expect him to hit that well at the major league level because very few can do it, but he's capable of being a damn good one and his initial struggle and current SO rate are again small samples. His 64 AB so far this season are outside of his character as a whole. All I'm saying is let's get a better idea of what he can do and that will require a few hundred AB at least.

Edited to say that his defense at 2B is nothing to worry about. He's actually got a decent glove.

What he did in AA 2 years ago doesn't make him a good player now. It's an indicator that there may be something there but 2021 is not a small sample for something like K rate and it wasn't good pre-callup when he was hitting .400 and it isn't good now. Someone with his limited power potential has to eventually start to put the ball in play against good pitchers and this has nothing to do with how he was somehow ruined by his callup. He's had a few hundred AB already this year and he isn't likely to change significantly out of nowhere. If I recall correctly he hits the ball on the ground a lot too and not particularly hard which isn't likely to translate well to MLB BABIP success.

When you:
Don't make particularly productive contact when you put the ball in play
Strike out a lot
Don't walk much

Where is your value as a hitter?

 

[DickyLeftridge]

Don't look now but Quantrill and McKenzie are starting to emerge for 2022 and beyond. Morgan as a reliable 6th is also another nice find for 2021.

Can we please oh please bring up Arias and Gimenez and get this thang on and popping? Send down or out one of the OF (I'm leaning Harold or Mercado), move Amed to OF, move Miller back down, and let's GO. Gimenez/Arias SS/2B of the future. Lesssssssssssssssssssssss ride.

 

[sportscoach]

What he did in AA 2 years ago doesn't make him a good player now. It's an indicator that there may be something there but 2021 is not a small sample for something like K rate and it wasn't good pre-callup when he was hitting .400 and it isn't good now. Someone with his limited power potential has to eventually start to put the ball in play against good pitchers and this has nothing to do with how he was somehow ruined by his callup. He's had a few hundred AB already this year and he isn't likely to change significantly out of nowhere. If I recall correctly he hits the ball on the ground a lot too and not particularly hard which isn't likely to translate well to MLB BABIP success.

When you:
Don't make particularly productive contact when you put the ball in play
Strike out a lot
Don't walk much

Where is your value as a hitter?

What you have to look at is his track record from when he was drafted until now and the SO rate he has had in 21 is completely different than what he has done in the past. I am siding with his track record of a less than 20% SO rate stating that he isn't going to be so heavy in the SOs going forward. Honestly you are only looking at 21 and not his whole career so at the moment I am siding with his career numbers not his 21 numbers only which is how it sounds like how you are looking at him. Plus you don't hit 300 for this long in the minors without having some contact ability...

 

[CDAV45]

What he did in AA 2 years ago doesn't make him a good player now. It's an indicator that there may be something there but 2021 is not a small sample for something like K rate and it wasn't good pre-callup when he was hitting .400 and it isn't good now. Someone with his limited power potential has to eventually start to put the ball in play against good pitchers and this has nothing to do with how he was somehow ruined by his callup. He's had a few hundred AB already this year and he isn't likely to change significantly out of nowhere. If I recall correctly he hits the ball on the ground a lot too and not particularly hard which isn't likely to translate well to MLB BABIP success.

When you:
Don't make particularly productive contact when you put the ball in play
Strike out a lot
Don't walk much

Where is your value as a hitter?

C'mon dude, it isn't just what he did 2 yrs ago in AA. He's hit at every level other than his extremely small sample at the highest level, and he's showing signs that he is trending toward his career norms since returning. His OPS was only under .800 in 2019 and it was .785. That's pretty damn good for a MIF prospect.

I'd like to know who in this organization is a "good hitter" in your opinion because I don't know if any that has been more impressive than Miller. He needs more than 64 major league AB to determine his success or failure as a major league hitter. He's literally impressed everyone except you apparently. His line in Columbus this year is 297/374/489/863. I don't give a single shit about SO if he can carry a line like that.

In the end he may not succeed simply because many don't. The numbers aren't just against him they are against every minor leaguer trying to establish themselves as big leaguers. If a player's minor league career is a resume of sorts, then Owen Miller's would be hard to beat.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

McKenzie has now alternated between good and bad starts for nine starts in a row. It's like clockwork. Maybe he can finally break the pattern in his next start.

I keep waiting for him to figure out what was working in a good start and carry it over to the next one but so far this season he has not been able to put two good starts together.

No walks in seven innings is extremely impressive for a guy who started the season with something like 39 walks in his first 45 innings. And only one home run in seven innings against the team that leads the A.L. in home runs is really encouraging.

Can't wait until he figures out how to string good starts together.

 

[DJJOE]

Owen Miller's value ought not to be argued with SSS stats that include pre-sticky crackdown ABs.

 

[CATS44]

A few thoughts...

1) Miller is a good, not great, prospect who has consistently at every MiLB level produced about 30% higher than league average. Nothing he has done has done has stuck out. He doesn't do anything particularly well, but doesn't do anything badly...which means as a prospect he is kinda boring...lol. (Thats not meant as a knock.)

He doesn't look like a starter on a MLB team, but perhaps one of those players that hang around as a util guy for four or five years, until he's due to make big bucks...maybe bouncing from org to org as a fringe 40 man player.

He and Clement are the two oldest of our MIF prospects, which is why they were the first ones here...not counting Gimenez...but I don't think anybody envisions either as the most likely to be a starter at any position over some other youngster we have. They are kinda the stop gap prospects until the others arrive.

2) Based upon a lot of inside evaluation over a long period of time..and not on six weeks of spring training...I think the FO and Tito envisioned last winter that TMac and Quantril were the best options for the back end of our rotation. The mega mirage of Logan changed their minds.

In the end, it appears that the original prognosis was correct. As is often the case, Spring Training means sh*t.

3) Speaking of mirages...Zimmer is living on a .400 BABIP, nine HBPs, and 22% of his hits haven't left the infield, none of which are sustainable. And he Ks at a 35% rate.

45% of his plate appearances result in a K, a HBP, or an inf hit. The two good results in that trio are unsustainable, unless Zimmer has turned into a combo of Brandon Guyer and Super Kenny Lofton. Zimmers HBP this season is close to Guyers career mark. His inf hit % is nearly double Loftons best season number.

But he is sure fun to watch run and play defense. However, if its possible to sell high, do it.

4) IMO, Mercados problem is confidence. It shows up in his speech, in his body language, and on the field. He has the tools to play this game well, but maybe not the mental toughness. In this he resembles Jhonny Peralta, who was either REALLY good or REALLY bad. Playing in Cleveland after Omar may have been the worst thing for him, and leaving Cleveland the best.

5) The org has to make decisions on Harold, Zimmer, and Mercado soon. One of them will probably stick as a fourth OF. Hopefully, none are being looked at as anything more than that, even a platoon bat. None of them has a split that screams lefty or right killer.

In my mind, its like the end of Boy Named Sue...Bill or George, anything but these three.