2021 Series #33 | Indians @ Blue Jays | Aug. 2-5

[KluberSociety]

C'mon dude, it isn't just what he did 2 yrs ago in AA. He's hit at every level other than his extremely small sample at the highest level, and he's showing signs that he is trending toward his career norms since returning. His OPS was only under .800 in 2019 and it was .785. That's pretty damn good for a MIF prospect.

I'd like to know who in this organization is a "good hitter" in your opinion because I don't know if any that has been more impressive than Miller. He needs more than 64 major league AB to determine his success or failure as a major league hitter. He's literally impressed everyone except you apparently. His line in Columbus this year is 297/374/489/863. I don't give a single shit about SO if he can carry a line like that.

In the end he may not succeed simply because many don't. The numbers aren't just against him they are against every minor leaguer trying to establish themselves as big leaguers. If a player's minor league career is a resume of sorts, then Owen Miller's would be hard to beat.

The problem is you can't "maintain a line like that" with the kind of contact that he makes on top of the K's. It's as simple as that. The reason why I care about the K's is because it is a leading indicator of actual results.

My judgment of him is based on his combined AAA/MLB numbers and all I said is he has to improve, and he does. And he shouldn't be thrown out there when we're contending when he hasn't shown signs of that improvement.

His development appears to have stalled, I'm not sure if there's an easy explanation but some players make improvements and some really just never get that much better.

I mainly just post about Miller to push back against the messiah treatment he was given. I remember reading that his floor was Mark Loretta, a 19 WAR player. Anyone remember Jason Donald? He made people optimistic due to some BABIP driven batting averages, played mediocre defense, and ultimately didn't make enough contact to make up for his lack of power. That seems more like a realistic floor for Owen Miller.

 

[KluberSociety]

What you have to look at is his track record from when he was drafted until now and the SO rate he has had in 21 is completely different than what he has done in the past. I am siding with his track record of a less than 20% SO rate stating that he isn't going to be so heavy in the SOs going forward. Honestly you are only looking at 21 and not his whole career so at the moment I am siding with his career numbers not his 21 numbers only which is how it sounds like how you are looking at him. Plus you don't hit 300 for this long in the minors without having some contact ability...

I think it's already been established that somehow the kind of contact he makes is at least mildly favorable to maintaining some kind of BABIP. That's not what I mean when I'm talking about contact though, and as every level gets more difficult, I don't think striking out at his clip in AAA is really much or any worse than what he did in AA. I do think that the kind of contact he makes isn't as likely to translate as well to BABIP in the majors though as it has in the minors, but still I don't see that being very easy to improve alongside power.

The reason why I specifically focus on contact as in simply putting balls in play, is because he has at least shown that he could make contact to a reasonable degree at a young age and when I see him look just overmatched against good pitching with what appears to be bad pitch recognition, I see someone who maybe can learn a bit in that sense and approach some of what his old numbers hinted at. I'm not only focusing on 2021 as you suggest. I see that as an area of potential growth, and it kind of has to be for him to be a MLBer of value.

 

[Criznit]

The problem is you can't "maintain a line like that" with the kind of contact that he makes on top of the K's. It's as simple as that. The reason why I care about the K's is because it is a leading indicator of actual results.

My judgment of him is based on his combined AAA/MLB numbers and all I said is he has to improve, and he does. And he shouldn't be thrown out there when we're contending when he hasn't shown signs of that improvement.

His development appears to have stalled, I'm not sure if there's an easy explanation but some players make improvements and some really just never get that much better.

I mainly just post about Miller to push back against the messiah treatment he was given. I remember reading that his floor was Mark Loretta, a 19 WAR player. Anyone remember Jason Donald? He made people optimistic due to some BABIP driven batting averages, played mediocre defense, and ultimately didn't make enough contact to make up for his lack of power. That seems more like a realistic floor for Owen Miller.

I see nothing that points to a stalled development here..

Again - only 48 games in AAA to date and his stat line is better than it was in AA in 2019. Only 23 MLB games to date. I will say his K rate is slightly alarming (I have many times regarding Miller) but if he can offset with a decent walk rate and high contact skills (like he has done in the minors) he should be OK

A learning curve should not be mislabeled as a development stall.

He is pretty much a finished product though and now he just needs to take the final step, a step many many falter on. Especially in their initial exposure.

Will he be anything more than a role player? Who knows. However it is far too early to stick a fork in him.

 

[CDAV45]

The problem is you can't "maintain a line like that" with the kind of contact that he makes on top of the K's. It's as simple as that. The reason why I care about the K's is because it is a leading indicator of actual results.

My judgment of him is based on his combined AAA/MLB numbers and all I said is he has to improve, and he does. And he shouldn't be thrown out there when we're contending when he hasn't shown signs of that improvement.

His development appears to have stalled, I'm not sure if there's an easy explanation but some players make improvements and some really just never get that much better.

I mainly just post about Miller to push back against the messiah treatment he was given. I remember reading that his floor was Mark Loretta, a 19 WAR player. Anyone remember Jason Donald? He made people optimistic due to some BABIP driven batting averages, played mediocre defense, and ultimately didn't make enough contact to make up for his lack of power. That seems more like a realistic floor for Owen Miller.

Jason Donald is a poor comparison I don't recall anyone thinking as highly of him as they do Miller and for just cause. His numbers at Miller's age aren't even comparable. Miller is and has been a very good hitter and all I'm suggesting is that he shouldn't be condemned because he came out of the gate slowly. Many of the best hitters in MLB struggled initially and many that came out on fire fizzled. All you can use to judge a player is his past performance and 68 AB is not a good indicator regardless of how you interpret it.

I agree that Miller shouldn't be looked upon as some sort of messiah. He's historically been a very good hitter and all we can do is hope that continues. His swing is low maintenance and he's never really struggled to barrel balls outside of very brief slumps.

Miller's success as a hitter is not driven by any BABIP averages. That seems like a stretch to build a case that isn't there to me. What I do know is that as sabermetrics advance BABIP is proving itself worthless. It treats a bloop single the same as a double in the gap which is pointless with Miller because clearly there have been an exuberant amount of doubles in the gaps which explains his career OPS of over .800.

We can agree to disagree. I certainly don't think less of you or anyone else for having a different opinion than myself.

 

[Benway]

In my mind, its like the end of Boy Named Sue...Bill or George, anything but these three.

Without looking, can you name the man who Wrote that son?

edit: *Song, not son. But I'm leaving that up, son!

 

[xmasbuck]

Without looking, can you name the man who Wrote that son?

edit: *Song, not son. But I'm leaving that up, son!

yea I can - as I read my kids and my brothers kids some poetry from this writer, my brother told me had written a boy named sue - I told him he was crazy - he had misread something - he was right, I was wrong