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2021 Series #6 | White Sox @ Indians | April 20, 2021

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The BEST announcers are great regardless. Hamilton is an adrenaline junkie addicted to the sound of his own voice. He can't wait until his next hit. To the extent that this team isn't consistently dramatic, Hamilton is helpless, because he's incapable of telling a story without adjusting the volume up. Subtlety completely escapes him. Taken together with the TV crew, Cleveland is a wasteland for baseball broadcasting, and is one reason the fan base (such as it is) reacts with such ignorance to what transpires with the team.

Have you heard some of the announcers around the league? Indians announcers at least have some personality to them. I've heard some that are so monotone, that I turned off the game... Indians announcers actually aren't that bad at all. We are just ready for a different set of banter at times.
 
"...Got my first look at Sam Hentges. Wow! He looks like the Big Unit's little brother. He made one bad pitch to Abreu, who was locked in tonight, but struck out his other three batters with a combination of 97 mph heat and a hook that reminded me of Andrew Miller. Enormous potential for this kid. I can see why Tito is so excited about him...."
Hentges was impressive.. the pitch Abreu belted was right in his nitro zone... and a clear "miss" at the target Perez put out for him.. inner half.. mid thigh high.. Hentges' fastball was electric.. & everything he threw was down hill.. We need to see more of him in similar situations and higher leverage situations... In time.. Hentges may prove to be a middle to back of the rotation starter...

We'll see..
 
Hentges was impressive.. the pitch Abreu belted was right in his nitro zone... and a clear "miss" at the target Perez put out for him.. inner half.. mid thigh high.. Hentges' fastball was electric.. & everything he threw was down hill.. We need to see more of him in similar situations and higher leverage situations... In time.. Hentges may prove to be a middle to back of the rotation starter...

We'll see..
I’d be shocked if Hentges amounted to anything as a starter. His future appears to be in the pen.
 
I’d be shocked if Hentges amounted to anything as a starter. His future appears to be in the pen.

Most said Civale wouldn't be able to handle being a starter as well but Hentges hasn't shown anything in my mind as a starter with his numbers and whatnot.
 
The problem isn't power.

The Tribe is 5th in the AL in SLG and SECOND in ISO....1st in HRs.

The problem isn't Ks or BBs. The team is fifth in fewest Ks and third in BBs.

While it doesn't seem like it...and thats an understatement...the batters are doing almost everything right.

Taking their walks, and making consistent hard contact.

The problem is the lowest BABIP in the league.

If production matched what the batters are actually doing at the plate, we would have a record more like 11-5 than 8-8.

We obviously need our big bats to hit, and for the most part they are....without any reward.

Joses BABIP is 184...101 pts below his career. Yet his Ave exit velo is 92.3, compared to a career 88.7. He so far his hard hit % is the highest of his career by over 20%. He has as many BBs as Ks. He is doing everything right. His OPS is .727. Given how he has hit the ball, his OPS should be .986.

Hernandez has the same situation, a miserable .536 OPS that, based upon how he has hit the ball, should be in the .890 range.

Although not nearly as dramatic, both Rosarios and Naylor are in the same situation.

And thats the heart of our order, the guys who have to produce.

What do you tell players who are doing everything right, but not being rewarded?
 
The problem isn't power.

The Tribe is 5th in the AL in SLG and SECOND in ISO....1st in HRs.

The problem isn't Ks or BBs. The team is fifth in fewest Ks and third in BBs.

While it doesn't seem like it...and thats an understatement...the batters are doing almost everything right.

Taking their walks, and making consistent hard contact.

The problem is the lowest BABIP in the league.

If production matched what the batters are actually doing at the plate, we would have a record more like 11-5 than 8-8.

We obviously need our big bats to hit, and for the most part they are....without any reward.

Joses BABIP is 184...101 pts below his career. Yet his Ave exit velo is 92.3, compared to a career 88.7. He so far his hard hit % is the highest of his career by over 29%. He has as many BBs as Ks. He is doing everything right. His OPS is .727. Given how he has hit the ball, his OPS should be .986.

Hernandez has the same situation, a miserable .536 OPS that, based upon how he has hit the ball, should be in the .890 range.

Although not nearly as dramatic, both Rosarios and Naylor are in the same situation.

And thats the heart of our order, the guys who have to produce.

What do you tell players who are doing everything right, but not being rewarded?
Row the boat, tap the rock... whatever little saying you want to use. Keep doing things the right way, and eventually, it will work out.

The Tribe's process is correct right now, they just aren't getting the results. Hopefully, they stick to their current process because the temptation in these situations is to switch things up, and that's when you really screw yourself.
 
Civale at least had minor league success as a starter.

Hentges has a spotty record at best.

The minors arent all about success. They are about development than on field success.

Hentges needs a lot of improvement on control and command. He sure seems to have the "stuff.

He fits the dynamics of a slow developer...comes from a cold weather location...TJS surgery...big guy with a growth spurt after he became a pro.

Kluber was awfully spotty in the minors, too. Im not saying that Hentges is another Kluber...very very few ever are.

But lefties that big who throw that hard, with decent secondary offerings, dont grow on trees.

I hope the org is in no rush to pigeonhole him as a reliever.
 
Civale at least had minor league success as a starter.

Hentges has a spotty record at best.
I've heard that it takes taller pitchers longer to figure out how to coordinate all those long levers to make the ball go where they need it to. Randy Johnson was 7-13, 4.82 as a 25-year-old rookie. The next three years he was good, but not dominant, with a record of 39-35 and ERA+ numbers between 103 and 108. He struck out over 10 batters per 9 innings but averaged 5.9 walks. He didn't become really good until age 29 when he reduced his walks from 5.9 to 3.5. He finished second in the CY that year.

Andrew Miller never had an ERA+ above 89 or a FIP below 4.00 until age 27; another tall lefty who didn't figure out how to make all his parts work together until his late 20's.

Sam Hentges will be 25 in July. Hopefully he's getting to the point now, or soon, where he'll be able to command both his 96-97 mph heater and that nasty hook that he got three K's on yesterday. If he does, will he be a starter like Johnson or a reliever like Miller? I just hope he becomes one or the other, but Johnson would be nice.

Basically we told him, ‘Sam, the day that you kick our door down and we can’t keep you out of the major leagues, it’s going to be a great day for all of us. That’s how we feel. And we think that day is coming.- Tito on Sam Hentges, 3/14/21

I'm wondering if that day is here. Does Quantrill have any options left? I haven't seen anything from him. He was supposed to compete with Allen for the #5 starter job but got hit hard in Arizona and never came close. He hasn't shown much since the season started, either. 8 innings, 8 hits, 5 walks, 4 K's. He needs to go to Columbus and pitch regularly.

Or do the Indians want Hentges starting in Columbus for now? We're a couple of weeks away from their actual season starting.
 
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The minors arent all about success. They are about development than on field success.

Hentges needs a lot of improvement on control and command. He sure seems to have the "stuff.

He fits the dynamics of a slow developer...comes from a cold weather location...TJS surgery...big guy with a growth spurt after he became a pro.

Kluber was awfully spotty in the minors, too. Im not saying that Hentges is another Kluber...very very few ever are.

But lefties that big who throw that hard, with decent secondary offerings, dont grow on trees.

I hope the org is in no rush to pigeonhole him as a reliever.
Nobody is saying it's impossible for Hentges to have success as a starter. I'm sure there's a universe where it all works out and he wins the Cy Young. However, the fact that you have to refer to Kluber as an example shows you how unlikely it is to happen. Kluber is an all-time outlier.

I've heard that it takes taller pitchers longer to figure out how to coordinate all those long levers to make the ball go where they need it to. Randy Johnson was 7-13, 4.82 as a 25-year-old rookie. The next three years he was good, but not dominant, with a record of 39-35 and ERA+ numbers between 103 and 108. He struck out over 10 batters per 9 innings but averaged 5.9 walks. He didn't become really good until age 29 when he reduced his walks from 5.9 to 3.5. He finished second in the CY that year.

Andrew Miller never had an ERA+ above 89 or a FIP below 4.00 until age 27; another tall lefty who didn't figure out how to make all his parts work together until his late 20's.

Sam Hentges will be 25 in July. Hopefully he's getting to the point now, or soon, where he'll be able to command both his 96-97 mph heater and that nasty hook that he got three K's on yesterday. If he does, will he be a starter like Johnson or a reliever like Miller. I just hope he becomes one or the other, but Johnson would be nice.

Basically we told him, ‘Sam, the day that you kick our door down and we can’t keep you out of the major leagues, it’s going to be a great day for all of us. That’s how we feel. And we think that day is coming.- Tito on Sam Hentges, 3/14/21
See above.

If you have to use all-time outliers like Randy Johnson or Corey Kluber, it's probably unlikely to occur, which is why I'd be shocked if it happened.
 
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It's
I’d be shocked if Hentges amounted to anything as a starter. His future appears to be in the pen.
....easy to see the comp's to Andrew Miller and a career in the bullpen.. but, if you can get a guy, a left hander, no less, to get 15 to 21 outs in an appearance.. that would be the MOST value to the Indians. As of now.. being on the hill without the trainer being called is a plus for Hentges..

Thoughts?..
 
Nobody is saying it's impossible for Hentges to have success as a starter. I'm sure there's a universe where it all works out and he wins the Cy Young. However, the fact that you have to refer to Kluber as an example shows you how unlikely it is to happen. Kluber is an all-time outlier.

If you have to use all-time outliers like Randy Johnson or Corey Kluber, it's probably unlikely to occur, which is why I'd be shocked if it happened.
Out of curiosity I checked the career records of the tallest pitchers of recent years. I looked to see how old they were when they broke out, which I defined as having an ERA+ as significantly above 100. All are between 6'6" and 6'8".

Chris Martin, 6'8", age 33
Andrew Miller, 6'7", age 27
Dellin Betandes, 6'8", age 26
Brad Wieck, 6'8", age 26
Tyer Glasnow, 6'8", age 25
Adam Wainwright, 6'7", age 24
Noah Syndergaard, 6'6", age 22
Chris Sale, 6'6", age 21
CC Sabathia, 6'6", age 21

So there are a few tall pitchers who put it all together at a young age, but there are just as many who didn't become better than average until 25 or later. That might not be any different from the average height pitchers.

The thing I noticed about Hentges is the White Sox were swinging at his curve ball when it was in the dirt. It broke so much that it looked like a strike until the batter started his swing. You see the same thing with Karinchak and again when Miller was here. So I'm not sure he has to throw strikes every time with the curve to get swings and misses.

I don't want to take too much from one inning, but his stuff really popped, and striking out three White Sox in the heart of their batting order isn't nothing. It looked like Abreu hit a badly located slider, which is probably his weakest pitch.
 
Out of curiosity I checked the career records of the tallest pitchers of recent years. I looked to see how old they were when they broke out, which I defined as having an ERA+ as significantly above 100. All are between 6'6" and 6'8".

Chris Martin, 6'8", age 33
Andrew Miller, 6'7", age 27
Dellin Betandes, 6'8", age 26
Brad Wieck, 6'8", age 26
Tyer Glasnow, 6'8", age 25
Adam Wainwright, 6'7", age 24
Noah Syndergaard, 6'6", age 22
Chris Sale, 6'6", age 21
CC Sabathia, 6'6", age 21

So there are a few tall pitchers who put it all together at a young age, but there are just as many who didn't become better than average until 25 or later. That might not be any different from the average height pitchers.

The thing I noticed about Hentges is the White Sox were swinging at his curve ball when it was in the dirt. It broke so much that it looked like a strike until the batter started his swing. You see the same thing with Karinchak and again when Miller was here. So I'm not sure he has to throw strikes every time with the curve to get swings and misses.

I don't want to take too much from one inning, but his stuff really popped, and striking out three White Sox in the heart of their batting order isn't nothing. It looked like Abreu hit a badly located slider, which is probably his weakest pitch.
My man, I said I thought he had a future in the bullpen. You don't have to convince me there.
 
I don't think Hentges is a good enough pitcher to ever be a starter in the bigs.

He's still primarily a thrower rather than a pitcher. I'm hoping he can put it together to be a quality bullpen asset, instead of ending up like another Nick Hagadone.

I'd be absolutely shocked if he ever had success again as a starter.
 
Derek:

A 6-8 left handed pitcher is already an outlier. One who throws as hard as he does with what looks to be a plus off speed pitch is an even bigger outlier.

When you are developing a kid with the physical gifts that Hentges has, you shoot for the highest outlier possible.

Would you rather have the Big Unit or Miller time? I'd choose the former.

Would you rather have the Big Unit Lite...otherwise known as the Medium Unit, or Miller time? Id still prefer the former.

Its easier to convert a failed starter into a back end reliever...esp one thats 6-8...than to convert a back end reliever back into a starter.
 

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