2021 Spring Training Thread

[Gson]

3 hits.. that's it?.. only three hits.. can't win games not scoring.. close the book on this one.. tomorrow is another day..

 

[Derek]

@Wham with the Right Hand, you are completely missing the point and I'm not interested in talking in circles with you again.

I didn't say BABIP was a singular measure. It was just one of the few I could have cited as an example of needing a larger sample size to eliminate as much noise as possible.

You're not actually arguing against anything I'm saying, so I'll just assume that you agree with me that 131 innings into Civale's career, there are still a lot of question marks about what caliber pitcher he will be.

 

[WhoAzcue]

It looks like he pitched better in general but made a few more bad pitches that resulted in a lot of runs.

Actually that's the way it looked to me last summer. I can't believe so many people are jumping off the Civale bandwagon over last year's meager results. I still saw a guy who had a winning arsenal and a mind to put it to good use. The fact that he made changes to his delivery only indicates a desire to be better and throw more efficiently, not a fear that he was slipping into mediocrity or something.

Thanks for the fine analysis.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Actually that's the way it looked to me last summer. I can't believe so many people are jumping off the Civale bandwagon over last year's meager results. I still saw a guy who had a winning arsenal and a mind to put it to good use. The fact that he made changes to his delivery only indicates a desire to be better and throw more efficiently, not a fear that he was slipping into mediocrity or something.

Thanks for the fine analysis.

Something happened to Civale. He had 12 starts in 2020. In his first six starts his ERA was 3.15. In his last six his ERA was 6.62. It more than doubled. In those final six starts his WHIP was 1.68. In his first six starts he walked 4 batters; in his last six he walked 12. His strikeouts dropped from 40 to 31. He was a totally different pitcher in those last six starts.

For example, the first time he faced the Pirates he went 9 innings, allowing 5 hits and one earned run. The second time they blasted him for 10 hits and 8 runs, including three home runs, in only five innings. Night and day. His best start of the year and his worst, both against the same team.

It couldn't have been fatigue. Did he lose his mechanics? Did hitters stop chasing and get better counts to hit?

According to FanGraphs, batters actually chased MORE of Civale's pitches in 2020 than 2019; his O-swing percentage increased from 30.5% to 32.4%. Also, they made less contact with pitches outside the zone; 64.6% versus 73.2% in 2019. So hitters chased a few more bad pitches in 2020 and made a lot less contact. Obviously that's not the problem.

Digging into the numbers, his barrel percentage almost tripled from 2019 to 2020; 2.4% to 6.9%. His line drive percentage increased nearly 7%. For some reason hitters were squaring up his pitches much more frequently while at the same time chasing more and striking out more. His home run rate doubled.

In 2019 only 6.6% of Civale's fly balls left the park. In 2020 it was 15.7%. By the way, 3 of his 11 home runs allowed came in his final start against the Pirates. It was easily his worst start of the year.

I don't know why Civale's performance dropped off so dramatically after six starts. Batters hit more line drives, squared up a lot more of his pitches, and his HR/FB percentage more than doubled. It looks like he just made more really bad mistakes, but otherwise his stuff was just as good if not better.

Another odd thing was his reverse spits. Lefties hit .231/.660 off him; righties hit an astonishing .333/.961. Eight of his 11 home runs were to right-handed hitters and nine were hit at home. Almost all the home run damage was done by right-handed hitters in his own ballpark. His ERA at the Prog was 6.09 versus 3.60 on the road.

When Civale fell behind in the count he was dead meat. With a 1-0 count batters hit .333/1.368. With a 2-0 count they were 2-for-2. With a 2-1 count the hit .318/.757. And with a 3-1 count they were 3-for-6. Add it up and batters hit .375 off him when ahead in the count.

When batters got their third look at Civale they hit .326/.949 off him as opposed to OPS's of .731 and .751 the first two times at bat. Five on his 11 home runs came on the third at-bat.

So Civale's mission is clear. One, he needs to find a way to pitch more effectively at home and to right-handed hitters. Two, he needs to stay ahead in the count as much as possible and when he gets behind he needs to avoid throwing fat pitches. Three, he needs to find a way to get hitters out the third time through the order.

Civale was very walk-averse, allowing one walk every 4.6 innings. He could benefit from walking a few more batters in lieu of throwing a hittable pitch when behind in the count. He gave up too many home runs and line drives last year. Maybe he was so determined not to allow any free passes that he gave in and grooved pitches when down in the count.

He also needs to figure out the reason for his dramatic decline between his first six starts and his second six and correct the problem.

In 2019 Civale's ERA was 1.09 at home, so he can pitch at the Prog. He dominated right-handers in 2019 with a line of .203/.602. And opposing batters hit WORSE against him the third time through the order; 5-for-42 for a batting average of .119. He got better the deeper he got, which was the opposite in 2020.

Maybe 12 starts is just too small a sample and we should throw his 2020 season out. Lindor hit .258 last year and that's not who he is. The weird season of a short spring training followed by a long break and then an even shorter spring training threw a lot of players off. But it didn't bother Bieber, Plesac, Clevinger or Carraso. And Civale pitched well his first six starts but could not sustain it.

I hope he finds some answers and gets back to pitching the way he did in 2019 when his FIP was 3.40 and batters hit .216 against him.

 

[MadThinker88]

Something happened to Civale. He had 12 starts in 2020. In his first six starts his ERA was 3.15. In his last six his ERA was 6.62. It more than doubled. In those final six starts his WHIP was 1.68. In his first six starts he walked 4 batters; in his last six he walked 12. His strikeouts dropped from 40 to 31. He was a totally different pitcher in those last six starts.

For example, the first time he faced the Pirates he went 9 innings, allowing 5 hits and one earned run. The second time they blasted him for 10 hits and 8 runs, including three home runs, in only five innings. Night and day. His best start of the year and his worst, both against the same team.

It couldn't have been fatigue. Did he lose his mechanics? Did hitters stop chasing and get better counts to hit?
...............

@Wham with the Right Hand

During the past week I heard/ read an interview where Civale speculated he might have been tipping his pitches during 2020...
If so (& the opposition had picked up on that) it could be a contributing reason to day/ night difference in the early/ later performance (especially vs someone like the Pirates).

To combat tipping pitches a pitcher will make some sort of adjustment/ change to their setup & delivery...

 

[petes999]

In 2019 Civale's ERA was 1.09 at home, so he can pitch at the Prog. He dominated right-handers in 2019 with a line of .203/.602. And opposing batters hit WORSE against him the third time through the order; 5-for-42 for a batting average of .119. He got better the deeper he got, which was the opposite in 2020.

You have some good stats in there ... Thanks. It is hard to gauge pitchers though with a few games in their stat lines. Civale pitched well in 2019 at home because he only faced 3 teams -- Texas, Detroit and Chicago WS. Chicago was his worst - 3 runs 1 earned in 5 innings (still good). The others were 1 run in 6 innings vs Tex and 1 run in 7.2 vs Det. So a bit padded based on playing 2 bottom feeders. However, in 2020, the stats were reversed 23 runs in 34 innings at home vs 16 runs in 40 innings away. Yet, again, he started 4 out of first 6 on the road and finished at home 4 of his last 6 games. So the home/away stats are a bit skewed based on starting strong.

So sometimes, things look good or bad but with a small sample size, the teams you play and when do have an impact.

That is also why I sometimes don't like the 2nd vs 3rd time through line up. It is good to see if a pitcher is losing steam and show increase in BA. However, you almost need to strip out all the times he didn't go 3 times through the line up to make it meaningful. For example, if a pitcher sucks on one day, he may not get to the 3rd time through before being pulled (so you just inflated 1st and 2nd time through). Yet, when he is on, he can get to the 3rd time through and make those numbers look really good especially if those numbers don't include any (or very limited) data for when he had a bad day.

 

[Andrew Scheid]

Does Jake Bauers start at 1B in the beginning of the regular season solely because he's out of options and Bobby Bradley has one remaining? I really hope the team just cuts bait with Bauers at this point and lets either Bradley get a real opportunity, or put Naylor at 1B and let Daniel Johnson play in a RF platoon with Luplow.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Does Jake Bauers start at 1B in the beginning of the regular season solely because he's out of options and Bobby Bradley has one remaining? I really hope the team just cuts bait with Bauers at this point and lets either Bradley get a real opportunity, or put Naylor at 1B and let Daniel Johnson play in a RF platoon with Luplow.

I'm hoping that the only reason Bauers starts at first base is if he clearly outplays Bradley in spring training and shows solid evidence that he has improved his swing and his approach to hitting. I don't want him to be given the job just because he's out of options. It's time for him to either produce or move on.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

You have some good stats in there ... Thanks. It is hard to gauge pitchers though with a few games in their stat lines. Civale pitched well in 2019 at home because he only faced 3 teams -- Texas, Detroit and Chicago WS. Chicago was his worst - 3 runs 1 earned in 5 innings (still good). The others were 1 run in 6 innings vs Tex and 1 run in 7.2 vs Det. So a bit padded based on playing 2 bottom feeders. However, in 2020, the stats were reversed 23 runs in 34 innings at home vs 16 runs in 40 innings away. Yet, again, he started 4 out of first 6 on the road and finished at home 4 of his last 6 games. So the home/away stats are a bit skewed based on starting strong.

So sometimes, things look good or bad but with a small sample size, the teams you play and when do have an impact.

That is also why I sometimes don't like the 2nd vs 3rd time through line up. It is good to see if a pitcher is losing steam and show increase in BA. However, you almost need to strip out all the times he didn't go 3 times through the line up to make it meaningful. For example, if a pitcher sucks on one day, he may not get to the 3rd time through before being pulled (so you just inflated 1st and 2nd time through). Yet, when he is on, he can get to the 3rd time through and make those numbers look really good especially if those numbers don't include any (or very limited) data for when he had a bad day.

Yes, we should get a much better picture of Civale this year assuming he stays healthy and in the rotation. When you're looking at small samples (10 starts in 2019, 12 in 2020) they can be skewed by factors such as the opponents faced home versus away.

Also, if a pitcher has a couple of really bad starts they can skew the numbers in a small sample.

 

[CATS44]

Does Jake Bauers start at 1B in the beginning of the regular season solely because he's out of options and Bobby Bradley has one remaining? I really hope the team just cuts bait with Bauers at this point and lets either Bradley get a real opportunity, or put Naylor at 1B and let Daniel Johnson play in a RF platoon with Luplow.

A very good question.

If you go solely by ST, esp the first few weeks, Bradley is kicking it one way, and Bauers is kicking it the other.

Meanwhile, both Naylor and Johnson have done fine.

Surprisingly, Johnson has not played CF yet.

But six at bats is hardly a compelling sample size.

 

[BimboColesHair]

No speculation needed. Civale was 100% tipping his pitches last year, was very noticeable to some in the org...

 

[Steve_424]

 

[Kevalier]

I’ll probably take some shit for this, but I’m not exactly outraged that they got haircuts and ate inside of a restaurant. Yes, they broke the protocol agreement they signed, but it’s quite extreme that they aren’t allowed to get a haircut or eat inside of a restaurant considering where we are now with COVID compared to when the protocols were put in place last season.

 

[jup]

I’ll probably take some shit for this, but I’m not exactly outraged that they got haircuts and ate inside of a restaurant. Yes, they broke the protocol agreement they signed, but it’s quite extreme that they aren’t allowed to get a haircut or eat inside of a restaurant considering where we are now with COVID compared to when the protocols were put in place last season.

Last season ?

Yes they were put in place last season but reviewed and reworked in some aspects this season. Particularly the differences between indoor and outdoor.

Doesn't mean I am standing up for them because the protocols are damn restrictive and one thing we really don't know is - did they already have COVID and recover. Because if they did, they should have developed immunity and players in that category are going to find the protocol restrictions even more punitive leaving them less willing to abide.

 

[WhoAzcue]

Surprisingly, Johnson has not played CF yet.

Which is why I have a very hard time buying the "Naylor to RF" mantra. Johnson is a prototypical RF. Naylor is a prototypical "where do I stick this guy? He's gotta be in the lineup..." player.