2021 Trade Ideas and Deadline talk!

[CDAV45]

Do they convert Stephan to a SP again after this season? Sure like his arm and he's looked good in multiple IP at times. Could get crowded real quick if they do and he makes it.

 

[xmasbuck]

Heard the Indians have been trying to acquire Myles Straw for a few years now.

And Phil fucking Maton and Yainer Diaz is what got it done?

LOL

to be sure, the Astros said Straw could bring a trash can with him

 

[petes999]

For those wondering why Indians didn't trade Shaw and Wittgren with all the other trades, it struck me that most of the pictures of trades showed on MTR were lefty relievers or closer type deals. Just going through the trade list of non-lefty, non-closer and non-starters,

Toronto - Soria from Arz
Boston - Robles from Minn
Mets - Williams (add on to Baez)
San Diego - Hudson from Wash
Seattle -- Castillo from Tampa
WS - Tepera from Cubs
Yankees - Holmes from Pitt

So most other trades than Holmes and Tepera (and Maton which CBS left off their list) were for the 8th/9th inning guys. I would expect Wittgren to be traded this offseason but maybe the Indians want to show in Aug/Sept that he has grained his form from last 2-3 years than his -0.1 WAR this year. I also expect maybe a Allen, Mejia or Hentges to be traded this offseason for a LF/RF. However, Indians have more value this November if they can show one of them can be a starter next season during the next 2 months of auditions assuming we keep Quantrill and McK as our two BOR guys.

 

[petes999]

For those wanting the outfield trade (better than Straw) yesterday (and I was one of them), who would you have gone after? There were the usual suspects of Marsh, Adell, Pache or Waters. However, yesterday, 1/2 the GMs and scouts were scouring for immediate help for their playoff run and thus Atlanta was not wasting time trying to pawn off prospects for prospects (and Pache and Waters had value to them as even if back-up to the back-ups). Plus, for a team like Toronto, they were not trading Martin for other prospects when he was already mentioned in other trade talks that were ongoing.

Then the other 1/3 of teams who had immediate help for a contender, they were scouting who they wanted back in those trades and not answering a call from Chernoff on a trade that could happen after the season. And, even if Chernoff got through, these other teams didn't know what their Rule 5 would look like after they did their other trades to even consider Chernoff's Rule 5 list of prospects that he wanted to switch out.

Yet, just for fun, I went to FanGraph and selected the OF prospects and sorted based on ETA to see who would pop up as a possible prospect . Oakland with Barrera or Reed are a possible place to look too. Yet, notice, how highly Cleveland is ranked with Jones, Johnson and Valera for help in 2022 (so this list isn't perfect and bit outdated already). Yet, when you look at the list, over 1/2 of it can be scratched off immediately as we have better prospects than say a DJ Peters who will get traded soon. And, note, Palacios is listed as 40 FV but not on this list as DH per FanGraph. Part of me is warming up to seeing Oscar G get a shot at some point because who is out there as a potential mid-level free agent?

The Board | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

 

[Tondo]

Straw was a great get. He'll replace Cesar's bat, just with speed instead of power. I'd like to see Straw and Zimmer batting 1/2 vs RHP, that's a much better OBP than Cesar/Amed, with more runners on base for our two best hitters.

Sneaky good additions in Pilkington and Battenfield. The type of depth profiles this FO has been good at finding.

With Yainer Diaz traded, I hope Micael Ramirez finally gets his A Ball opportunity.

Cleared some 40 roster space and got some decent value in return, can't complain about that. It's actually remarkable.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Crazy to think the amount of pitching the Indians have acquired in (about) the past calendar year....

- Cal Quantrill
- Gavin Williams
- Joey Cantillo
- Tanner Burns
- Logan Allen
- Tommy Mace
- Josh Wolf
- Doug Nikhazy
- Trevor Stephen
- Damon Casetta-Stubbs
- Peyton Battenfield
- Konnor Pilkington

While losing Clevinger, Carrasco, Ollie Perez, and Hand. Out with the old, in with the new. Hand has five wins and 21 saves for the Nationals this year. The others have combined to pitch four innings (by Carrasco last night).

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I was going to check out Straw on Fangraphs but Pluto beat me to it, pointing out that Fangraphs has Straw as the best defensive centerfielder in baseball.

In fact, it's not even close. They give him a grade of 8.1 for this season. The second highest is Kevin Kiermaier, who has three Gold Gloves to his credit, with a grade of 6.6. Byron Buxton is 5th with a grade of 5.1.

For the current Indians who have played center, Fangraphs ranks them this way:

46 Amed Rosario -0.3
51 Bradley Zimmer -0.7
56 Jordan Luplow -1.0

I was surprised to see Zimmer ranked that low. I was wondering why they traded for Straw since Zimmer is basically the same player, but I was assuming they were pretty equal defensively. Fangraphs says it's not even close and that Zimmer is slightly below average while Straw is elite and far and away the best in the game.

As for the offense, Zimmer is hitting .250 but his BABIP this season is .410 which is unsustainable. His career average BABIP is .340 and that includes this season. I don't think Zimmer will be able to maintain that .410 BABIP which means his batting average and on-base percentage should decline.

Zimmer swings and misses 14.3% of the time compared to 4.8% for Straw. Straw's K rate is 19.2% against 34.8% for Zimmer.

For the Indians it seems they view centerfield much like they view catcher; the key is defense and the opportunity to get the best defensive centerfielder in baseball who is only 26 and making $600K per year was an attractive proposition. I'm guessing their internal stats were in agreement with Fangraphs and that Zimmer is not as good a defensive centerfielder as most fans, including myself, thought. Going back to 2018 before his injuries Zimmer was ranked 27th by Fangraphs.

Phil Maton is having a good season so they took advantage and sold high. Yainer Diaz is an interesting prospect but they have Bo Naylor and Brian Lavastida in the system so it seems they were OK with losing Diaz if it got them a player they've been after for over a year. Fortunately the Astros are loaded in the outfield and need help in the bullpen so the stars lined up for the Tribe.

More evidence the Indians were not thrilled with Zimmer's defense in center, or Mercado's either:

Antonetti made it clear that Straw will be the starting centerfielder. He said Zimmer, Mercado, Johnson and Ramirez will get most of their playing time in left and right field.

The Indians have been pursuing Straw, 26, over the last year.

“He’s a premium defender in center fielder and elite base runner,” said Antonetti. “We’re looking forward to him coming over and playing center field for us.” - Terry Pluto

 

[sportscoach]

I also like the fact, with Francona still supposed to be the coach in 22, that Straw has played 2B and SS in games as well. He gives us a plus defensive CF, plus someone who can fill in in other positions as welll

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I also like the fact, with Francona still supposed to be the coach in 22, that Straw has played 2B and SS in games as well. He gives us a plus defensive CF, plus someone who can fill in in other positions as welll

I can't see the Indians possibly taking the best defensive centerfielder at a key defensive position and putting him in the infield. Not unless they have an ungodly spate of injuries at SS and 2B. Especially since starting next year they will have middle infield prospects bubbling up every year; Freeman, Clement, Miller, Arias, Gimenez, etc. Heck, seven of their top 15 prospects in the BA list are shortstops.

Fangraphs has Zimmer with a WAR of 0.6 in 49 games and Straw with a WAR of 2.0 in 98 games. So doubling Zimmer's numbers gives him a WAR of 1.2 in 98 games although he would still be about 50 plate appearances short, so let's make it 1.3. So according to Fangraphs Straw is about 50% better than Zimmer in terms of WAR if you equalize the playing time.

I'm starting to get why the Indians have been after him. I'm not crazy about his bat, but if he can maintain the .339 OBP combined with his ability to steal bases and take extra bases then he's not a bad offensive player, just somewhat limited. His wRC+ is 93, so he's not far below average.

 

[MadThinker88]

I find it interesting that the Tribe was after Straw "for about a year". Makes me wonder what changed yesterday to get the deal completed:
Did CLE finally agree to a 2nd piece to their side of the deal?
Did CLE internally lower its value of Maton so they would agree to the Astros price tag of Maton plus Y Diaz??
Did CLE hold to its line of Maton & Y Diaz and it was the Astros that finally said yes to the package (lowering its internal value of Straw)???

I doubt we will ever hear the real reason it took so long to finish the trade, but I would be very interested in the story if it was released.

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

I was going to check out Straw on Fangraphs but Pluto beat me to it, pointing out that Fangraphs has Straw as the best defensive centerfielder in baseball.

In fact, it's not even close. They give him a grade of 8.1 for this season. The second highest is Kevin Kiermaier, who has three Gold Gloves to his credit, with a grade of 6.6. Byron Buxton is 5th with a grade of 5.1.

For the current Indians who have played center, Fangraphs ranks them this way:

46 Amed Rosario -0.3
51 Bradley Zimmer -0.7
56 Jordan Luplow -1.0

I was surprised to see Zimmer ranked that low. I was wondering why they traded for Straw since Zimmer is basically the same player, but I was assuming they were pretty equal defensively. Fangraphs says it's not even close and that Zimmer is slightly below average while Straw is elite and far and away the best in the game.

As for the offense, Zimmer is hitting .250 but his BABIP this season is .410 which is unsustainable. His career average BABIP is .340 and that includes this season. I don't think Zimmer will be able to maintain that .410 BABIP which means his batting average and on-base percentage should decline.

Zimmer swings and misses 14.3% of the time compared to 4.8% for Straw. Straw's K rate is 19.2% against 34.8% for Zimmer.

For the Indians it seems they view centerfield much like they view catcher; the key is defense and the opportunity to get the best defensive centerfielder in baseball who is only 26 and making $600K per year was an attractive proposition. I'm guessing their internal stats were in agreement with Fangraphs and that Zimmer is not as good a defensive centerfielder as most fans, including myself, thought. Going back to 2018 before his injuries Zimmer was ranked 27th by Fangraphs.

Phil Maton is having a good season so they took advantage and sold high. Yainer Diaz is an interesting prospect but they have Bo Naylor and Brian Lavastida in the system so it seems they were OK with losing Diaz if it got them a player they've been after for over a year. Fortunately the Astros are loaded in the outfield and need help in the bullpen so the stars lined up for the Tribe.

More evidence the Indians were not thrilled with Zimmer's defense in center, or Mercado's either:

Antonetti made it clear that Straw will be the starting centerfielder. He said Zimmer, Mercado, Johnson and Ramirez will get most of their playing time in left and right field.

The Indians have been pursuing Straw, 26, over the last year.

“He’s a premium defender in center fielder and elite base runner,” said Antonetti. “We’re looking forward to him coming over and playing center field for us.” - Terry Pluto

For the rest of the season, I really don't care what they do in CF as it won't matter. But this strategy strikes me as a bit desperate and an admission that every guy they intended to play the position is awful. Straw has no power. While he has very good speed, the accepted standard on SB value is 70%.

Legally Stolen Bases | Articles | Bill James Online

Essentially the break even point where the extra base run value exceeds the loss of a runner with a caught stealing requires a 70% success rate. Straw is 17 of 22, slightly above the break even mark. So his value is entirely defense.

I can't see them committing to this for long. Kiermaier and Pillar would probably be the best comparisons if he is a truly elite defender but both had decent power though Straw has shown a better OBA to date. He is also remarkably bad against LHP too which also eliminates his SB value.

 

[xmasbuck]

the new definition of excellence for hitters in cleveland - "he's only a little bit below average"

 

[DCTribefan]

For the rest of the season, I really don't care what they do in CF as it won't matter. But this strategy strikes me as a bit desperate and an admission that every guy they intended to play the position is awful. Straw has no power. While he has very good speed, the accepted standard on SB value is 70%.

Legally Stolen Bases | Articles | Bill James Online

Essentially the break even point where the extra base run value exceeds the loss of a runner with a caught stealing requires a 70% success rate. Straw is 17 of 22, slightly above the break even mark. So his value is entirely defense.

I can't see them committing to this for long. Kiermaier and Pillar would probably be the best comparisons if he is a truly elite defender but both had decent power though Straw has shown a better OBA to date. He is also remarkably bad against LHP too which also eliminates his SB value.

Unfortunately, I cannot get the Bill James link to work but as The Godfather of baseball sabremetrics, I think his earlier views may have since been replaced by more updated, advanced metrics. Does the SB metric factor in pressure on the pitcher and occasional throwaway errors to first base? Not sure how this can be captured but it does add value.

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

Unfortunately, I cannot get the Bill James link to work but as The Godfather of baseball sabremetrics, I think his earlier views may have since been replaced by more updated, advanced metrics. Does the SB metric factor in pressure on the pitcher and occasional throwaway errors to first base? Not sure how this can be captured but it does add value.

It doesnt get that specific. It generally looks at the run expectation if you steal a base as opposed to get caught stealing and lose the base runner since runners at any base are extremely valuable. I am sure he has a greater likelihood of scoring from 2B on a single and from 1B on a double than an average runner. Not suggesting speed doesn't have value, it just doesn't change the expected runs much compared to a guy that has power.

His platoon splits are probably the most intriguing but they really lack a great option for that.

 

[CDAV45]

I can't see the Indians possibly taking the best defensive centerfielder at a key defensive position and putting him in the infield. Not unless they have an ungodly spate of injuries at SS and 2B. Especially since starting next year they will have middle infield prospects bubbling up every year; Freeman, Clement, Miller, Arias, Gimenez, etc. Heck, seven of their top 15 prospects in the BA list are shortstops.

Fangraphs has Zimmer with a WAR of 0.6 in 49 games and Straw with a WAR of 2.0 in 98 games. So doubling Zimmer's numbers gives him a WAR of 1.2 in 98 games although he would still be about 50 plate appearances short, so let's make it 1.3. So according to Fangraphs Straw is about 50% better than Zimmer in terms of WAR if you equalize the playing time.

I'm starting to get why the Indians have been after him. I'm not crazy about his bat, but if he can maintain the .339 OBP combined with his ability to steal bases and take extra bases then he's not a bad offensive player, just somewhat limited. His wRC+ is 93, so he's not far below average.

I'd tread down FG's, or any other defensive metric path cautiously. Especially one that has Zimmer as "slightly below average". They just aren't accurate or consistent. Straw may be the best defensive CF in the game, as I really don't know, but I'm confident in saying that he's not that much better than Zimmer or Mercado for that matter.

I understand why some like Straw. I'm indifferent because I value offense as much as I do defense and Straw brings very little of the former. If this team improved it's marginal at best. If Mercado and Zimmer are going to be playing the corners then we'll continue to see the least offensively productive OF in baseball. Then again maybe he'll surprise me and hit the shit out of the ball. In that case I couldn't/wouldn't be happier.