2022 Minor League Thread

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petes999

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I think the 2 are comparable and their stats show that they performed very similar over the course of the entire season. The difference is that Allen pitched much better in Akron than Curry did. Curry has more giddy-up on his FB buy Allen's slider is a plus offering and he's not exactly a soft tosser either. I would agree with you that Allen should be ahead of Curry, but it's close.

Williams is on a whole different level. He should instantly be in the top 100 prospects due to his immense upside. From there his performance should dictate if he moves up the rankings or off the list IMO.

I was giving Allen the benefit of doubt as Coveringtgecorner fans just ranked him 7th .... a little high for me. Curry on pipeline is #30 and #36 on FanGraph board, a bit low but showing how deep our system is. Key with Curry is he started at Lynchburg and Allen started at LC ... it kind of shows how FO thinks of them when Curry was drafted a year earlier. FO even had Gaddis in LC ahead of Curry but Curry jumped him even though Gaddis has a pretty good year too.

Shows big improvement w Curry but not top 100 worthy. One thing I worry about w Curry is jump in HR per 9. It was 1.3 in LC leading to 2.66 ERA. Allen HR also jumped in Akron but was .4 in LC for 1.58 ERA. As both were 2nd half stats it could be either a small sample size blip or hitting the proverbrial wall after taking 2020 off.

Yet, I have been looking at that stat as a drawback to pitchers trying to be too precise to stay wirhin with zone (to inflate k/w) rather than painting the corners even when behind in count. I look at Bieber and having both good command and being able to throw precisely enough to limit hr balls. I hate it when an announcer says a pitcher is accurate due to k/w ratio but you see catcher moving the glove to other side of plate or from top to bottom constantly.
 
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Tondo

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I think the 2 are comparable and their stats show that they performed very similar over the course of the entire season. The difference is that Allen pitched much better in Akron than Curry did. Curry has more giddy-up on his FB buy Allen's slider is a plus offering and he's not exactly a soft tosser either. I would agree with you that Allen should be ahead of Curry, but it's close.

Williams is on a whole different level. He should instantly be in the top 100 prospects due to his immense upside. From there his performance should dictate if he moves up the rankings or off the list IMO.
Curry had a 3.99 FIP and 3.91 xFIP in A+, because he had the highest LOB% at the level and one of the lowest BABIP against. He had a very good season, but also a lot of luck involded.
 

CDAV45

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Curry had a 3.99 FIP and 3.91 xFIP in A+, because he had the highest LOB% at the level and one of the lowest BABIP against. He had a very good season, but also a lot of luck involded.
You could be right, but walking less than 2 per 9IP and striking out almost 11 per 9IP while in A+ helps too, and that isn't luck.
 

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For those who want a good laugh ... it's from the end of last season but look who is at #100 from JustBaseball


I know Curry shot up the ranks by playing in 3 different levels last year ... but now way is he ahead of Williams and Allen.
Herein lies some of the "subjectivity" of ratings lists.. Some are more subjective than others..
 

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The coming of C-Var.. about to be real..

 

MadThinker88

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I didn't see it mentioned anywhere but the news should be shared....

They put an Akron RubberDuck on the cover of the Baseball Prospectus Futures Guide 2022...

519l2hh8o0L._SX342_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg


That gets me pumped for the upcoming season....
The book gets released at the end of February...
 

CDAV45

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So why don't I know much about Timmy Herrin. Evidently they invited him to ST and he had a very good 2021 campaign. I guess his FB is in the mid to upper 90's now.
 

sportscoach

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So why don't I know much about Timmy Herrin. Evidently they invited him to ST and he had a very good 2021 campaign. I guess his FB is in the mid to upper 90's now.

Cause he doesn't have the same talent some other guys do and how often do we hear about bullpen arms outside of the top ones?

Next off he is 25, hasn't pitched above A ball and by the numbers has some command issues. 22 feels like a make or break year since there is spots at AAA available for guys like him in the bullpen. Lets see how he handles 22
 

CATS44

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So why don't I know much about Timmy Herrin. Evidently they invited him to ST and he had a very good 2021 campaign. I guess his FB is in the mid to upper 90's now.
You are not the only one. I never heard of him.

29th rounder....left handed...tall....made big strides from 2019.
 

Tondo

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So why don't I know much about Timmy Herrin. Evidently they invited him to ST and he had a very good 2021 campaign. I guess his FB is in the mid to upper 90's now.
You're welcome.....

68 LHP Tim Herrin (25.2yo)

On age/level, Herrin is behind some of the aforementioned pitchers, but 6’5 LHP with mid 90s heat and wipeout slider don’t grow on trees. That, and Herrin has been used as multi innings RP. The former 29th rd pick has struggled with control since college, not unusual for tall lefties. It has gotten gradually better since turning pro and Herrin enjoyed a breakout season in A+ (73.2 IP). Out of 139 pitchers at the level with 60+ IP, Herrin ranked 2nd in ERA (1st among 70+ IP) and 7th in FIP. His peripherals were on par or better than those of X. Curry at Lake County (but 2 years older). Herrin needs to repeat that at the upper levels, but if he does, he’s an instant LHRP option for the G’s.

 

MadThinker88

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You're welcome.....

68 LHP Tim Herrin (25.2yo)

On age/level, Herrin is behind some of the aforementioned pitchers, but 6’5 LHP with mid 90s heat and wipeout slider don’t grow on trees. That, and Herrin has been used as multi innings RP. The former 29th rd pick has struggled with control since college, not unusual for tall lefties. It has gotten gradually better since turning pro and Herrin enjoyed a breakout season in A+ (73.2 IP). Out of 139 pitchers at the level with 60+ IP, Herrin ranked 2nd in ERA (1st among 70+ IP) and 7th in FIP. His peripherals were on par or better than those of X. Curry at Lake County (but 2 years older). Herrin needs to repeat that at the upper levels, but if he does, he’s an instant LHRP option for the G’s.

Hmmmm. Sounds like you agree with the author of that report...
;)
 

petes999

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For those who havent seen, Jake Lefwich velo seems to be up (or short stint for relief role). Was low to mid 90s, top 96. Now supposedly sits 96-97. Maybe Guardians saw a quick fix to someone who was/is inconsistent. Not bad for 7th round gamble

 

petes999

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You're welcome.....

68 LHP Tim Herrin (25.2yo)

On age/level, Herrin is behind some of the aforementioned pitchers, but 6’5 LHP with mid 90s heat and wipeout slider don’t grow on trees. That, and Herrin has been used as multi innings RP. The former 29th rd pick has struggled with control since college, not unusual for tall lefties. It has gotten gradually better since turning pro and Herrin enjoyed a breakout season in A+ (73.2 IP). Out of 139 pitchers at the level with 60+ IP, Herrin ranked 2nd in ERA (1st among 70+ IP) and 7th in FIP. His peripherals were on par or better than those of X. Curry at Lake County (but 2 years older). Herrin needs to repeat that at the upper levels, but if he does, he’s an instant LHRP option for the G’s.

For those who like tunneling videos ... here is his (another video shows fb at 94.8 ...)

 

petes999

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So, going off on a long tangent here, as some of us were targeting who would be the 2022 pitching prospects to break into the 4th/5th starter roles. There are a whole lot of variables that go into trying to project minor leaguers on a major league level … You have things like velocity, tunnelling, consistent release point on different pitches, movement from the tunnel, injury, and a whole lot of other things like BAA, Ks, W that you can look at. One of the focus points was on K/W ratio being a big factor and why the new guys standout better than the national rankings.

For last year (other than Morgan which I did his career instead due to his few innings last year in Columbus)

Tobias Myers – 5/1 K/W last year, .228 BAA, 11.2 K per 9, .293 BAA

Pilkington – 3/1 K/W, .178 BAA, 10.9 K per 9, .234 BABIP (huge decrease)

Allen – 5.5/1 K/W, .193 BAA, 11.6 K per 9, .265 BABIP

Battenfield – 6.9/1 K/W, .175 BAA, 11.5 per 9, .234 BABIP

Morgan (career milb) -- 4/1 K/W career, .230 BAA, 10 k per 9, .304 BABIP

Morris – 4.7/1 K/W, .189 BAA, 13.7 K per 9, .311 BABIP (was .371 first season)

Now, just on first glance, I previously discounted K/W ratios because you can throw a beachball down the middle and walk no one but get the career AAAA guy to swing through your sliders. Yet, the issue I have with Morgan is that doesn’t work in the MLB as hitters will crush anything (90 mph fastball) that has too much of the plate (his .304 BABIP).

Pilkington has me the most concern (as his rankings suggest). The .178 BAA looks great but it is based on his BABIP going down from the .310+ range to .234. Now, if he found a pitch that hitters, even if they make contact, can’t barrel, great. But, sometimes as others say here, it is just plain luck (like getting heads 5 times in a row) that will even out next year.

And, I have been a big fan of Morris as he cruised through this year with a high K rate, but his BABIP was also down from .371 to .311. Was he starting to develop a 3rd pitch to lower BABIP (keeping people off his FB) or was .311 lucky in 2021 (if it goes back up in 2022)?

Battenfield intrigued me the most because his BABIP is consistently low .245 and .234 in his 2 years (probably hard to barrel right?). Allen could be great but it was his first year which was .265 (better than Morgan .304 career without the lower levels to pad stats). Tobias also concerns me because he had more of a 2 to 2.5 K/W ratios in 2018 and 2019 to 5/1 now. Yet, it is mainly due to his K/9 going up (from 6-8 per 9 range to 11 this year). Saw a report that some of his velocity has come back which may have helped (versus just lucky).

Why did I look at these stats? My main concerns with using numbers are sometimes they mislead you. A pitcher can have a high K/W rate because he doesn’t miss the middle of the plate much (doesn’t paint corners that he needs in majors). Yet, the BABIP and K per 9 can point out issues of just throwing beachballs down the middle (if BABIP is high and K per 9 is low).

Thus, until I can see some game action, I thought I would just go back and look at how other Akron AA pitchers did in prior years and how they evolved. First, I thought a good stat is if a pitcher did a 3.0 K/W and did at least 9 to 10 K per 9 as I saw others like Louis Head have 3.4 K/W ratio but 8 K per 9 (in 2016). Then I ran across something, Bieber before he got called up had his ridiculous 267 K to 21 W but in 283 innings (8.5K per 9 which is less than my 9 K per 9 to weed out others but close enough). In MLB, Bieber K per 9 has gone up from 8.5 to 11.3.

Just some other names from 2016-2021 with 3 K/W and 30 innings (as less is just luck). For me, it is just amazing how K per 9 increase in 2021 vs prior years (shouldn’t be just that arms were stronger after a year off, even from “Great Scott”).

2016 (name, k/w and K per 9)

Louis Head 3.39 8.11

Merryweather 3.59 7.42

Perci Garner 4.27 8.29

Adam Plutko 5.25 7.91

2017

Cam Hill 3.13 7.22

D. J. Brown 3.15 7.63

Whitehouse 3.22 7.07

Pannone 3.86 8.86

Merryweather 5.20 9.23

Shane Bieber 9.80 8.12

2018

McKenzie 3.11 8.63

Martinez 3.56 8.81

Aaron Civale 3.71 6.60

David Speer 3.77 7.11

Shao Chiang 4.15 6.82

Mike Peoples 4.33 7.24

Shane Bieber 30.00 8.71

2019

Eli Morgan 3.15 9.18

Adam Scott 3.52 8.84

Rob Kaminsky 3.75 8.63

Aaron Civale 4.00 7.13

Zach Plesac 5.67 8.20

2021

Adam Scott 3.33 11.02

Tanner Tully 3.56 7.78

Battenfield 5.14 9.08

Aaron Pinto 5.15 14.02

Nic Enright 5.60 12.70

Logan Allen 5.85 11.40

Mikolajchak 6.33 12.92
 

CDAV45

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I have 0 faith in BABIP unveiling anything useful and what is his average exit velocity? Even when you look at Pilkington who has the highest BB9 of the group you'll notice it was significantly better with his promotion. I believe I read somewhere(please correct me if I'm wrong) that Pilkington's spin is up there with the best of them. I wouldn't be afraid at all to give him an opportunity should there be an injury, trade, or underperformance. He's a workhorse too. He could damn near give you a full seasons worth of IP in 22. Once he establishes himself, if he ends up pitching like anything less than a 3 or a 4 then I'll be disappointed.

Morris developed a cutter that is filthy. If there's a pitch to cut deep into a pitcher's BABIP it would be the cutter as it induces weak contact. Doesn't hurt that he frequently hits the upper 90's with his FB and has a filthy breaking ball while tunneling all of them well.

Myers was only 22 last season and what he has done is nothing short of impressive to me. I don't know who they'd go to first if needed Pilkington or Myers.

Battenfield has been consistently good since being drafted. Scouts thought he was a reliever so hype on him was diminished. Good thing Cleveland's scouts are better than the freelancers. I'm still astonished that we got him for Luplow.

You might as well add Curry and Burns to the list. Their numbers aren't any less impressive really. The ball really jumps out of Burns hand. You don't expect to see that as he's going through his motion. Curry just looks more polished than his age and level suggest.

We need to remember that we have Hankins and Torres returning from TJS as well. These 2 are super talented.
 

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