2022 Minor League Thread

[BimboColesHair]

Thanks for the digging on the stats. Also what I expected. Even distribution, but overall more low K bats get more play and the "bad" high K bats get washed out (Zimmer, B. Bradley, Chang etc)

Again, I have issues with Zimmer being lumped into that group.

But sure.

 

[sportscoach]

Again, I have issues with Zimmer being lumped into that group.

But sure.

Zimmer did have a bad K rate, so in some ways on paper, he did have some issues..issued...

But as people who lost their chances because of injuries/medical conditions, you have to factor that in as well. We respect that part way more than most. (1B was my position I liked the most, but it's not often you can find a guy who played catcher that ran 4.4 in the 40).

 

[CDAV45]

Just because I’m generally curious.

Someone in here give me the number of PAs you think is large enough to determine how a player performed for a season.

Even further, when do you think a prospect/player is done developing?

 

[BimboColesHair]

Even further, when do you think a prospect/player is done developing?

I think 28 is the sweet spot.

 

[CDAV45]

I think 28 is the sweet spot.

I’ve always thought that the age 27 season was when pitchers are beginning to fully realizing their talent. I would agree that position players as a whole are a year or so later.

 

[DCTribefan]

Jarred Kelenic shows how difficult it can be to evaluate prospects

That Jarred Kelenic is in play to be part of Seattle’s postseason ride is yet another reminder that success is neither assured for top prospects nor linear in determining if will fulfill their tout…

nypost.com

 

[CATS44]

The big difference in this discussion is that most folks talk about production and K rates once prospects get to MLB.

I talk about K rates BEFORE they ever see MLB as an indication of how they will do

And I listed the names originally given me. Of that group, only two...Judge and Chapman...struck out a lot in the minors.

But go ahead, ignore the inability to make consistent contact as a major red flag.

************

We've had seventeen rookies play this year, most of them position players.

Which three position players have had the biggest impact?

Kwan, OGonz, and Brennan.

What do they have in common?

They didn't K a lot in the minors. They also weren't highly thought of as prospects until they got to sniffing distance of Cleveland...for various reasons, but the fact that they did make consistent contact was generally ignored.

********

Jones was our concensus #1 prospect for several years. Kwan, OGonz, and Brennan generally weren't even mentioned.

If you now have a pecking order for 2023 corner OFs, what is it?

******

Two of our younger players...Gimenez and Naylor...had 'breakout' seasons, to the surprise of many. Only a few saw it coming. More were looking to replace them for various reasons.

What did they have in common? They didn't K in the minors and made consistent contact.

Several posters insisted that Arias and Bradley were better. I doubt that anybody thinks that now.

In Gimenez case, he was a 4 WAR player BEFORE this season, based on what he had already done.

********

If you build a skyscraper, the first...and most important...thing you must do is to build a foundation. You could build one with a weak foundation, and if everything went right, it might stand for a long time. No storms, no floods, etc. But if you want to ensure that your building stands the test of time, you better have a strong foundation. (Think the three little pigs and the big, bad wolf.)

The same for MLB batters. They better have a foundation, and the single biggest part of a batters foundation is the ability to put the bat on the ball consistently. Hit tool. Hit skill.

With very rare exceptions, if you can't do that in the minors, you won't be productive in MLB.

*******

A lot of posters, as many have for twenty years on various internet forums, will continue to doubt the validity of what I post. Many will argue against it.

But the success of this team, plus Brantley, plus Lindor, plus JRam, et al...and the failure of a host of former Tribe farmhands that couldn't make contact...is validation enough.

 

[Benway]

I talk about K rates BEFORE they ever see MLB as an indication of how they will do

I'm not being confrontational, but the one piece of information that's missing here is this:

What is the MLB success rate of minor leaguers who do not strike out to excess?

Is it significantly different? I honestly have no idea.

 

[Real Deal]

What's going on here

 

[Criznit]

What's going on here

Cat's ego.

 

[BimboColesHair]

I'm not being confrontational, but the one piece of information that's missing here is this:

What is the MLB success rate of minor leaguers who do not strike out to excess?

Is it significantly different? I honestly have no idea.

It's not.

 

[CATS44]

Hardly my ego.

Just the facts, whether anybody likes them or not.

I dont have high hopes for prospects that fail to make consistent contact, just as I dont have high hopes for filling an inside straight.

There are high K prospects who do become productive MLB players, but the odds against them are long.

Out of the top 20 MLB batters this season, per wRC+, how many K'd more than 25% of the time in the minors?

Two freaks...Judge and Ohtani in Japan.

Anybody see either of them in our system?

Jones has Kd at 27%...Arias at 26%.

Austin Riley had a 25% K rate in the minors, the same as Valera.

So, three out of the top 20 MLB batters Kd at least 25% of the time in MiLB.

Not good odds for our whiffers.

Many of you keep insisting that I am wrong, but the results for the players in Cleveland for a decade say I have scoreboard.

 

[BimboColesHair]

And for what it's worth, most of the productive bats in the MLB over the last 5 seasons sat between 15% to 25% (or higher in some cases) K rates in the minor leagues.

Trout (16.6%)
Judge (24.8)
Trea Turner (20.1%)
Freeman (15.1%)
Machado (15.6%)
Realmuto (15.7%)
Goldschmidt (23.5%)
Bogaerts (19%)
Chapman (26.5%)
Semien (17%)
Yelich (20.8%
Correa (17%)
Baez (25.3%)
Acuna (21.3)
Story (26.7%)
Springer (26%)
Harper (18.4)
Devers (17%)
Starling Marte (20%)
Muncy (18.4%)
Rendon (16.5%)
Tim Anderson (22.5%)

That's 22 out of the top 30 position players by fWAR over the last 5 seasons and their minor league K%. Half of them had K rates over 20% (which is considered high) in the minor leagues.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Many of you keep insisting that I am wrong, but the results for the players in Cleveland for a decade say I have scoreboard.

And whenever I sniff my own farts, it supports my hypothesis that farts don't smell bad.

Let's just ignore the overwhelming number of farts that come from other people--or the overwhelming number of players outside of Cleveland.

I got scoreboard.

 

[KluberSociety]

I’ve always thought that the age 27 season was when pitchers are beginning to fully realizing their talent. I would agree that position players as a whole are a year or so later.

It feels like in terms of peaks:
Running comes first
Then fielding
Then hitting
Then (if they stay healthy) pitching