2022 Minor League Thread

[sportscoach]

Another yearly listing posted,,,

Posted: 12/20/21
Source: Baseball Prospectus (the list & write-ups are behind a paywall)
List goes to 13 along with others noted/ discussed

The State of the System: Cleveland can only play one shortstop per game, which might pose an issue for a system this deep in middle infielders. It’s deep generally, too.

2021 Cleveland Guardians Prospect List

The Top Ten:

1. George Valera, OF
2. Daniel Espino, RHP
3. Brayan Rocchio, SS
4. Gabriel Arias, SS
5. Gavin Williams, RHP
6. Tyler Freeman, SS
7. Nolan Jones, 3B/OF
8. Jose Tena, IF
9. Jhonkensy Noel, 1B/3B
10. Steven Kwan, OF
11. Logan T Allen, LHP
12. Petey Halpin OF
13. Tonny Mace, RHP

There are additional write-ups on Xzavion Curry, Alexfri Planez, Tanner Burns, Richie Palacios, Ethan Hankins & Bo Naylor...
Other very good info/ write-ups on the organization & its youthful major league team.

Well worth the $7 monthly subscription amount...

Noel and Halpin are both higher on their list than others, but other places may be sleeping on those two.... Noel can rake and Halpin I though honestly forced himself into the top 15 talk personally...

I guess Freeman is lower cause of limited/no power?

 

[Gson]

Another yearly listing posted,,,

Posted: 12/20/21
Source: Baseball Prospectus (the list & write-ups are behind a paywall)
List goes to 13 along with others noted/ discussed

The State of the System: Cleveland can only play one shortstop per game, which might pose an issue for a system this deep in middle infielders. It’s deep generally, too.

2021 Cleveland Guardians Prospect List

The Top Ten:

1. George Valera, OF
2. Daniel Espino, RHP
3. Brayan Rocchio, SS
4. Gabriel Arias, SS
5. Gavin Williams, RHP
6. Tyler Freeman, SS
7. Nolan Jones, 3B/OF
8. Jose Tena, IF
9. Jhonkensy Noel, 1B/3B
10. Steven Kwan, OF
11. Logan T Allen, LHP
12. Petey Halpin OF
13. Tonny Mace, RHP

There are additional write-ups on Xzavion Curry, Alexfri Planez, Tanner Burns, Richie Palacios, Ethan Hankins & Bo Naylor...
Other very good info/ write-ups on the organization & its youthful major league team.

Well worth the $7 monthly subscription amount...

Wow.. they really like Gavin Williams (up until now.. the highest I've seen him rated was 8th).. there's a lot to like about his game.. that's a certainty.. IDK that he's "earned" his way into the cherished top five.. but, he's certainly knocking on the door.. Do you think he'll start in A+ ball this year?...

 

[sportscoach]

Wow.. they really like Gavin Williams (up until now.. the highest I've seen him rated was 8th).. there's a lot to like about his game.. that's a certainty.. IDK that he's "earned" his way into the cherished top five.. but, he's certainly knocking on the door.. Do you think he'll start in A+ ball this year?...

Since he was a college pitcher, I think he will split the season between Lynchburg and Lake County... he likely will be limited in innings since he has never once done 100 innings anywhere, so expect him to split stay around 20-25 starts in 22, but increase the workload in 23 at LC and Akron... so late 24 or early/mid 25 as his MLB debut... that at least would be my plan following how the pitchers got handled in the past...

 

[FFRva]

I hope they start him at Lake County and take an approach like Tanner Burns, seems like a different situation but similar with total innings logged in college.

 

[sportscoach]

I hope they start him at Lake County and take an approach like Tanner Burns, seems like a different situation but similar with total innings logged in college.

I think he will end up with more innings at LC than Lynchburg, but that being stated, look at the depth with SPs... it's hard to merit a guy out of college who has less than 100 innings as a starter in front of other guys who have more experience and whatnot... Thats why in my mind, he starts at Lynch and work his way from there

 

[KluberSociety]

That list has Williams, Halpin, and Mace up pretty high and first time I've seen Tena (very reactive to recent performance, which I actually really like) and especially Kwan in top 10 (I was expecting Fangraphs to have him around 15). No Pilkington, Naylor, Palacios...

From the looks of it, this list is a lot more bold than stupid (stupid is the word I'd use to describe some of these "fantasy" lists I've seen floating around which look like they are mainly just rehashing really old reports from other sources and looking at triple slash stats). Might be worth a subscription to see what they have to say, particularly on Williams and Mace.

For the "big 5", Freeman isn't actually in the top 5 here and I think I generally was thinking Espino > Valera/Rocchio > Arias/Freeman so it's similar to my intuition.

Another yearly listing posted,,,

Posted: 12/20/21
Source: Baseball Prospectus (the list & write-ups are behind a paywall)
List goes to 13 along with others noted/ discussed

The State of the System: Cleveland can only play one shortstop per game, which might pose an issue for a system this deep in middle infielders. It’s deep generally, too.

2021 Cleveland Guardians Prospect List

The Top Ten:

1. George Valera, OF
2. Daniel Espino, RHP
3. Brayan Rocchio, SS
4. Gabriel Arias, SS
5. Gavin Williams, RHP
6. Tyler Freeman, SS
7. Nolan Jones, 3B/OF
8. Jose Tena, IF
9. Jhonkensy Noel, 1B/3B
10. Steven Kwan, OF
11. Logan T Allen, LHP
12. Petey Halpin OF
13. Tonny Mace, RHP

There are additional write-ups on Xzavion Curry, Alexfri Planez, Tanner Burns, Richie Palacios, Ethan Hankins & Bo Naylor...
Other very good info/ write-ups on the organization & its youthful major league team.

Well worth the $7 monthly subscription amount...

 

[MadThinker88]

............
I guess Freeman is lower cause of limited/no power?

From the write-up
The Good: Freeman has fantastic bat-to-ball skills even though his swing is not visually pleasing. He rarely strikes out and bloops the ball all over the field into green grass. He’s hit for consistently high averages at all levels. He’s likely to stay somewhere on the dirt up the spectrum from first.

The Bad: Freeman has no discernible power projection to speak of. He almost never walks because he puts the ball in play before the pitcher gets to four balls, so nearly the entirety of his contribution is driven by his batting average on balls in play. He just missed most of the season after re-tearing his labrum, and recurring shoulder injuries are a major concern for a prospect whose entire profile is driven by his hit tool. He might be a second baseman instead of a shortstop.

 

[Gson]

From the write-up
The Good: Freeman has fantastic bat-to-ball skills even though his swing is not visually pleasing. He rarely strikes out and bloops the ball all over the field into green grass. He’s hit for consistently high averages at all levels. He’s likely to stay somewhere on the dirt up the spectrum from first.

The Bad: Freeman has no discernible power projection to speak of. He almost never walks because he puts the ball in play before the pitcher gets to four balls, so nearly the entirety of his contribution is driven by his batting average on balls in play. He just missed most of the season after re-tearing his labrum, and recurring shoulder injuries are a major concern for a prospect whose entire profile is driven by his hit tool. He might be a second baseman instead of a shortstop.

Freeman has profiled as a 2B for some time now.. It's a good spot for him, too.. The reliance on BABIP has been something he's overcome his entire minor league career..no reason to believe this path won't bear fruit..

...it also makes him less likely to be a trade candidate.. FWIW..

 

[KluberSociety]

I remember some posters here talking about how Freeman had some power potential. Is BP right or wrong?

I do like that they picked up on the early action approach which is a bit troubling to me. Though it doesn't seem like he's the biggest chaser of bad pitches so I don't think the aggressive approach is going to exactly get him in K trouble.

 

[MadThinker88]

I remember some posters here talking about how Freeman had some power potential. Is BP right or wrong?

I do like that they picked up on the early action approach which is a bit troubling to me. Though it doesn't seem like he's the biggest chaser of bad pitches so I don't think the aggressive approach is going to exactly get him in K trouble.

There were reports of Tyler Freeman hitting for more power during the Alt site work during summer 2020.
Unfortunately his battles with injuries limited his time and at-bats during 2021 so no one can be really sure if that was a mirage during summer 2020 or will be seen with extended playing time & health..

Guess we will need to see how 2022 unfolds...

 

[sportscoach]

@KluberSociety

I'd also say, good ABs/good swings also can help with getting more HRs, but I don't ever personally really see him above the 10-15 mark... To me I think he's more of the 30-40 2Bs, 10 HRs that has a .280-.300 batting average with a .310-.330 OPS and somewhere around .430-.450 SLG%. DJ LeMahieu I think is the closest comp, but Freeman walks and SOs less than he does, while DJ can have more power at times as well, so I dont think we have a true comparison in the modern game off the top of my head...

 

[Gson]

@KluberSociety

I'd also say, good ABs/good swings also can help with getting more HRs, but I don't ever personally really see him above the 10-15 mark... To me I think he's more of the 30-40 2Bs, 10 HRs that has a .280-.300 batting average with a .310-.330 OPS and somewhere around .430-.450 SLG%. DJ LeMahieu I think is the closest comp, but Freeman walks and SOs less than he does, while DJ can have more power at times as well, so I dont think we have a true comparison in the modern game off the top of my head...

Luis Arraez

 

[sportscoach]

Luis Arraez

That's not a bad one either... I think he will have more 2Bs than Arraez does...

 

[KluberSociety]

Yeah I think Arraez makes some sense from the BABIP angle but with more extra base hits, less walks, and more strikeouts.

Steamer projections has him at .266 / .307 / .375 with 4.1 BB%, 13.8 K%. That's worth a wRC+ of 86. I'd actually be pretty happy if that's where he was now, with room to grow.

A 2-3 WAR player is not a bad thing though, if that's what he ends up being (seems somewhat high floor, low ceiling).

 

[CATS44]

I'd love to have a team full of 2.5 WAR players to go along with JRam.

8 X 2.5 = 20
20 + 6 =26

If we got 26 oWAR from our starting lineup, and another 3 combined from the back ups, we'd have 29 total.

Only two teams have projected oWAR above that....the Dodgers and Yankees at 30.1 and 30 respectively.

Even if all we got was 2.5 by position to go along with JRam, we'd have an offense equal to Chicago's.

*********

There are four pests that we have had to face regularly within our division that were somewhat comparable to Freeman at the same age. We'd be happy if Freeman turned into three of them, but somebody will be happier if he waits a while.

Arreaz
Madrigal
Anderson

And the late bloomer, Whit Merrifield.

High contact, low walk rate, high BA, very little power.

********

For those that are into risk assessment, Freeman is one of the lowest risk prospects in baseball.

Only six fangraphs top 100 prospects at the end of the season were rated as low risk. Freeman was ranked third among them.