2022 NBA Draft Safari

[Benway]

Eason was such a bad, bad miss.

I'm kind of glad we missed on him because he'd be playing for Danny Ainge now!

 

[Cavatt]

Was unfortunate he went before us. Those don't sting as much as having the player fall to you, passing and then having that guy be exactly what you think he might have been.

Eason was such a bad, bad miss. Since they have kept track of the RAPTOR stats, Eason is 9th in rookie season WAR at the SF position. The 8 guys ahead of him, over 10 drafts:

Tatum, Luka, Mirotic, Herb Jones, Scottie Barnes, Franz, Mikal Bridges and OG.

OUCCCCH. That is brutal having had the chance to draft one of the (potentially) let's just say 15 best SF's in the last 10 years or so. He needs to develop but just how physically ready he was to play, that is tough.

Kessler also had a a historically great rookie year. Since they have kept track of the RAPTOR stats, Walker is 4th in rookie season WAR at the C position. The 3 guys ahead of him, over 10 drafts:

Jokic, Porzingis and KAT.

As a GM, that is just a really bad outcome in year 1. Both of those players went in the next 8 picks after your selection......and the guy you took was a 4 year, low ceiling prospect that has looked pretty underwhelming through a season. If I were Gilbert, I'd be offering the lead draft person or Memphis 3-4x what they currently make to overhaul our scouting process.

I'm convinced Eason seems really dumb or had a bad background check. Lots of guys passed on him. Usually guys like him get drafted higher just from physical measurements. The fact his rebounding and defensive numbers and scoring were all so good. Just doesn't make sense.

I'd love to hear what it was. Word was his workouts weren't good. Maybe it was just that. We know cavs put a lot of stock in workouts

You have the idea Koby about SFs which is funny, but seriously why did he even fall past us? Why didn't anyone else want him? Something is up there IMO

I like Eason still, but it's pretty obvious they could not start him with Allen and Mobley, so it would have been him of the bench, I dunno. They drafted for fit and it sucks.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I'm convinced Eason seems really dumb or had a bad background check. Lots of guys passed on him. Usually guys like him get drafted higher just from physical measurements. The fact his rebounding and defensive numbers and scoring were all so good. Just doesn't make sense.

I'd love to hear what it was. Word was his workouts weren't good. Maybe it was just that. We know cavs put a lot of stock in workouts

You have the idea Koby about SFs which is funny, but seriously why did he even fall past us? Why didn't anyone else want him? Something is up there IMO

I like Eason still, but it's pretty obvious they could not start him with Allen and Mobley, so it would have been him of the bench, I dunno. They drafted for fit and it sucks.

I'm sure his workouts were underwhelming. I think guys of his profile aren't going to do things in workouts that are particularly exciting.

Like he's not a shooter.......not in the sense that he's going to hit 9 or 10 3's in a row. A game shooter who's a tick below average is likely to look like a below average shooter in workouts too. His dribble is effective but not exciting, he's a great athlete for his size but not Vince Carter, etc, etc. He's more of just a ball mover passing wise. But he does a lot of things that help a team.

That is always the problem with relying too much on workouts. This isn't unique to just Eason.......Kawhi basically slid for the same reason and I'm sure there are countless other examples where teams are ignoring a large set of data in favor of an hour or two of a guy doing random shit at 75% speed in an empty gym.

I also am unsure Eason wouldn't work with Mobley and Allen. He shot 34% on 172 attempts from 3. That is passable, especially for the versatility you get at that spot and the small ball lineups with him and Mobley would have been insane. It more-so was such a weird pick in the context of Garland specifically. Eason was basically created in a lab to pair with a small guard and we instead picked a low ceiling 4 year college shooter. Oh well.....I swear guys, I won't talk about this for all of eternity. Just some draft retro, a year in.

 

[Cavatt]

I'm sure his workouts were underwhelming. I think guys of his profile aren't going to do things in workouts that are particularly exciting.

Like he's not a shooter.......not in the sense that he's going to hit 9 or 10 3's in a row. A game shooter who's a tick below average is likely to look like a below average shooter in workouts too. His dribble is effective but not exciting, he's a great athlete for his size but not Vince Carter, etc, etc. He's more of just a ball mover passing wise. But he does a lot of things that help a team.

That is always the problem with relying too much on workouts. This isn't unique to just Eason.......Kawhi basically slid for the same reason and I'm sure there are countless other examples where teams are ignoring a large set of data in favor of an hour or two of a guy doing random shit at 75% speed in an empty gym.

I also am unsure Eason wouldn't work with Mobley and Allen. He shot 34% on 172 attempts from 3. That is passable, especially for the versatility you get at that spot and the small ball lineups with him and Mobley would have been insane. It more-so was such a weird pick in the context of Garland specifically. Eason was basically created in a lab to pair with a small guard and we instead picked a low ceiling 4 year college shooter. Oh well.....I swear guys, I won't talk about this for all of eternity. Just some draft retro, a year in.

When I watch him play he doesn't really seem to have much chemistry with anyone. He kinda does his own thing, which is ok if you are a star. I guess I think he is limited because his numbers are good while his feel seems bad. Not sure how to describe it. I've seen 5 games or so tho

 

[foucault87]

Workouts favor the guys who have "baller" skills. Shooting in motion, dribble moves etc. I dont think you can really see basketball IQ that easily in a workout which I am convinced is the single best predictor of basketball success (beyond just the math). Eason has a great motor, great tools, meh skills, and a good, if inconsistent, IQ. That profiles as a solid starter at median to me.

 

[Smooth]

I'll try to tag some draft nerds.

@MD13 @Randolphkeys @RchfldCavRaised @InBoobieWeTrust @Smooth @adam81king @Sir'Dom Pointer @Cavatt @stick @MirORich @Cement @NMCav @ajz20 @TyGuy @Derek @foucault87

Temp check on this draft. I want to continually post these, just to track the model but it seems to have put another strong performance in in 2022. The point of anything like this is continuing to be transparent about how it has performed, so that is why I like to do these.

The top 10 players in this draft in VORP, to date, came from the high success bucket. Ditto for BPM. The one breakthrough in win shares is Braun (10th) but the data just consistently has said, for 10 years here, that you need to be taking players in above median (0.79) PDIFF bucket.

Pick wise, 5 of the top 10 were non lottery picks and it just absolutely loved Walker, as a guy outside the draft think consensus. So that was a really big hit after a season.

And then the guys it didn't like also held up......sniffing out Johnny Davis as a landmine in the lottery. Maybe a couple guys who could stick in the league? But no one breaking through as of year 1.

I still don't get how Koby passed on Griffin.. He fit all the NBA guardrails he seemed to prefer: former top recruit, one-and-done player, Team USA product, had requisite shooting %'s and he also filled a major need... I get the injury concerns but he had the size and the skillset more than Agbaji did..

I remember Jalen Williams name be floated closer to the draft, and it would have been interesting had he been there at 14...

I just am thankful the Thunder were so aggressive in going after Dieng -- I think if he's at 14 Koby would have pulled the trigger.. I know there's not really enough to say if he's successful or not yet because of the situation and how raw he was, but I'm just not convinced he will turn into much..

What's really interesting in that second group of guys is all the one-and-done droppers who got drafted off talent more so than production: Watson, Christie, Houstan, Baldwin, and even Hardy and Wesley to an extent... Those guys were pure talent swings.. Is there hope that a guy like Emoni Bates can show some of the same signs they did despite poor collegiate statistics? I also wonder if there's anything to do with all them being young wings -- is that position easier to breakthrough with talent despite lackluster collegiate showing/stats?

 

[MD13]

I still don't get how Koby passed on Griffin.. He fit all the NBA guardrails he seemed to prefer: former top recruit, one-and-done player, Team USA product, had requisite shooting %'s and he also filled a major need... I get the injury concerns but he had the size and the skillset more than Agbaji did..

I remember Jalen Williams name be floated closer to the draft, and it would have been interesting had he been there at 14...

I just am thankful the Thunder were so aggressive in going after Dieng -- I think if he's at 14 Koby would have pulled the trigger.. I know there's not really enough to say if he's successful or not yet because of the situation and how raw he was, but I'm just not convinced he will turn into much..

What's really interesting in that second group of guys is all the one-and-done droppers who got drafted off talent more so than production: Watson, Christie, Houstan, Baldwin, and even Hardy and Wesley to an extent... Those guys were pure talent swings.. Is there hope that a guy like Emoni Bates can show some of the same signs they did despite poor collegiate statistics? I also wonder if there's anything to do with all them being young wings -- is that position easier to breakthrough with talent despite lackluster collegiate showing/stats?

My gut feeling on all of this is that if we got Jalen Williams or Dieng, we wouldn't have made the Mitchell trade. I have absolutely no Intel on this, but given how much we liked and pursued both it just seems to fit for me.

 

[Lee]

I'll try to tag some draft nerds.

@MD13 @Randolphkeys @RchfldCavRaised @InBoobieWeTrust @Smooth @adam81king @Sir'Dom Pointer @Cavatt @stick @MirORich @Cement @NMCav @ajz20 @TyGuy @Derek @foucault87

Temp check on this draft. I want to continually post these, just to track the model but it seems to have put another strong performance in in 2022. The point of anything like this is continuing to be transparent about how it has performed, so that is why I like to do these.

The top 10 players in this draft in VORP, to date, came from the high success bucket. Ditto for BPM. The one breakthrough in win shares is Braun (10th) but the data just consistently has said, for 10 years here, that you need to be taking players in above median (0.79) PDIFF bucket.

Pick wise, 5 of the top 10 were non lottery picks and it just absolutely loved Walker, as a guy outside the draft think consensus. So that was a really big hit after a season.

And then the guys it didn't like also held up......sniffing out Johnny Davis as a landmine in the lottery. Maybe a couple guys who could stick in the league? But no one breaking through as of year 1.

Can you go farther back or was 2022 the first year you started doing this?

 

[Muffinalt]

When I watch him play he doesn't really seem to have much chemistry with anyone. He kinda does his own thing, which is ok if you are a star. I guess I think he is limited because his numbers are good while his feel seems bad. Not sure how to describe it. I've seen 5 games or so tho

I remember the moment I soured on him. He had it all, the tools, the athleticism, defense, creation upside, shooting upside etc etc.

Just such a perfect prospect on the outside. And then you watch him play and he seems fidgety, forces things, doesn't make the reads often, plays dumb for the lack of the better word unfortunately.

It's the one thing I can't get over. You need the bball iq, that's the number one quality. Feel for the game. He has it in many cases to be fair, I like his passing, but too often he didn't.

I got the same feeling I had when watching Wiseman or Kuminga. I just can't be high on players like that.

We will see how his career turns out. I'm sure we'll be getting the updates about him here often

 

[I'mWithDan]

Can you go farther back or was 2022 the first year you started doing this?

I have it through the possession era. I didn’t start actively doing it until about 7 years ago. But the model looks back beyond that, to see how it viewed prior classes as well.

 

[Lee]

I have it through the possession era. I didn’t start actively doing it until about 7 years ago. But the model looks back beyond that, to see how it viewed prior classes as well.

Can see top players of 7 years ago, curious to see how it performed

 

[I'mWithDan]

Can see top players of 7 years ago, curious to see how it performed

Yeah, you can go back starting in 2011, with a complete data set.

I have players prior to that but they have generated possession data, that uses PACE and some math to get their figures. So still accurate but not as accurate as the actual possession era, where it is exact.

The typical year, you’ll see 8 of the best 10 guys come from the higher success (median or better bucket).