2022 NBA Draft Safari

[MD13]

Lots of debate about which of the 3 late lottery-ish Cs was the best, and maybe all of them are legit starting NBA Cs with all star upside? Obviously Kessler is getting the most shine right now playing well for a borderline playoff team, but Duren has had wow flashes and Mark Williams has been incredible since they started giving him minutes (no idea why that wasn't the case all year).

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

Lots of debate about which of the 3 late lottery-ish Cs was the best, and maybe all of them are legit starting NBA Cs with all star upside? Obviously Kessler is getting the most shine right now playing well for a borderline playoff team, but Duren has had wow flashes and Mark Williams has been incredible since they started giving him minutes (no idea why that wasn't the case all year).

Watching him play yesterday, I too dont understand what Steve Clifford is doing not playing him much earlier

They spent like 3/4 of the season watching the carcass of Mason Plumlee... why?

 

[MD13]

Watching him play yesterday, I too dont understand what Steve Clifford is doing not playing him much earlier

They spent like 3/4 of the season watching the carcass of Mason Plumlee... why?

I have no idea! I think it’s just Steve Clifford being Steve Clifford. He hates playing young guys for whatever reason. I was pretty high on Mark Williams relative to consensus, and it was a bit shaky through summer league, but now he’s at the very top of my expectations.

The dude is absolutely massive and powerful, and he makes you feel that on the court. He’s also got some interesting footwork and touch that maybe could be developed into something more. Not sure he’s ever going to switch onto guards on the perimeter, but he should continue to be a beast in drop coverage.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I'll try to tag some draft nerds.

@MD13 @Randolphkeys @RchfldCavRaised @InBoobieWeTrust @Smooth @adam81king @Sir'Dom Pointer @Cavatt @stick @MirORich @Cement @NMCav @ajz20 @TyGuy @Derek @foucault87

Temp check on this draft. I want to continually post these, just to track the model but it seems to have put another strong performance in in 2022. The point of anything like this is continuing to be transparent about how it has performed, so that is why I like to do these.

The top 10 players in this draft in VORP, to date, came from the high success bucket. Ditto for BPM. The one breakthrough in win shares is Braun (10th) but the data just consistently has said, for 10 years here, that you need to be taking players in above median (0.79) PDIFF bucket.

Pick wise, 5 of the top 10 were non lottery picks and it just absolutely loved Walker, as a guy outside the draft think consensus. So that was a really big hit after a season.

And then the guys it didn't like also held up......sniffing out Johnny Davis as a landmine in the lottery. Maybe a couple guys who could stick in the league? But no one breaking through as of year 1.

 

[MD13]

I'll try to tag some draft nerds.

@MD13 @Randolphkeys @RchfldCavRaised @InBoobieWeTrust @Smooth @adam81king @Sir'Dom Pointer @Cavatt @stick @MirORich @Cement @NMCav @ajz20 @TyGuy @Derek @foucault87

Temp check on this draft. I want to continually post these, just to track the model but it seems to have put another strong performance in in 2022. The point of anything like this is continuing to be transparent about how it has performed, so that is why I like to do these.

The top 10 players in this draft in VORP, to date, came from the high success bucket. Ditto for BPM. The one breakthrough in win shares is Braun (10th) but the data just consistently has said, for 10 years here, that you need to be taking players in above median (0.79) PDIFF bucket.

Pick wise, 5 of the top 10 were non lottery picks and it just absolutely loved Walker, as a guy outside the draft think consensus. So that was a really big hit after a season.

And then the guys it didn't like also held up......sniffing out Johnny Davis as a landmine in the lottery. Maybe a couple guys who could stick in the league? But no one breaking through as of year 1.

I’ve been meaning to ask you, what are your thoughts on Paolo? Seems like the media is rushing to proclaim him as the next superstar and I think everyone is way overreacting so far.

I had him on fantasy last year so I watched him a fair bit, and he was frankly bench/waiver wire caliber most of the year. The talent is obvious, but the lack of efficiency from all 3 levels just ruined whatever value he had. So I guess my overall thoughts are I see the talent, but I would like good signs that it’s contributing to winning before I hop on the bandwagon?

 

[AustinCarr]

I’ve been meaning to ask you, what are your thoughts on Paolo? Seems like the media is rushing to proclaim him as the next superstar and I think everyone is way overreacting so far.

I had him on fantasy last year so I watched him a fair bit, and he was frankly bench/waiver wire caliber most of the year. The talent is obvious, but the lack of efficiency from all 3 levels just ruined whatever value he had. So I guess my overall thoughts are I see the talent, but I would like good signs that it’s contributing to winning before I hop on the bandwagon?

Something about the guy gives me Antoine Walker vibes. He seems like he should be a star but just misses the mark. I can imagine him as a really good #2 or 3 option on a deep playoff team. Lucky for him, that might be all that is ever required of him. The Magic team is real nice.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I’ve been meaning to ask you, what are your thoughts on Paolo? Seems like the media is rushing to proclaim him as the next superstar and I think everyone is way overreacting so far.

I had him on fantasy last year so I watched him a fair bit, and he was frankly bench/waiver wire caliber most of the year. The talent is obvious, but the lack of efficiency from all 3 levels just ruined whatever value he had. So I guess my overall thoughts are I see the talent, but I would like good signs that it’s contributing to winning before I hop on the bandwagon?

I think it largely depends on his willingness to bang and rebound as he matures. After watching him play, he seems like a modern 4 but he wants to give effort on the glass like a 3 who can chip in.

The Orlando guards truly stink, so that is also what makes it harder. They are thrusting a guy in to a 25+% USG role, without guards who can help buoy his efficiency. Wether it is with shooting gravity or easy scoring opportunities.

Banchero drew fouls at a quality rate, especially for a rookie......so he would see a big uptick in efficiency if he just moderately improves from the FT line and from 3. For example, he was 11th in the NBA in FTA per game but only 48th in FGA per game. That is a really, really nice spread.

The tools are there to me. I don't know if he's going to be a star but I would say underlying metrics of FTR, ASTR and the ability to score at a young age would say it is possible. He has a pretty unique combination of skills at his size, it is just a matter of if he can improve moderately as a shooter (as that will improve his overall efficiency and also make it easier to leverage his passing and handle), cut down his turnovers and chip in a bit more on the glass.

My comp wouldn't be Walker but maybe more like a PF version of Melo (in a non disparaging way)? I think Banchero can be a truly electric offensive player.....but he'll need the right team around him to make up for his shortcomings as a defender and his so so willingness to bang on the glass.

 

[Cavatt]

I'll try to tag some draft nerds.

@MD13 @Randolphkeys @RchfldCavRaised @InBoobieWeTrust @Smooth @adam81king @Sir'Dom Pointer @Cavatt @stick @MirORich @Cement @NMCav @ajz20 @TyGuy @Derek @foucault87

Temp check on this draft. I want to continually post these, just to track the model but it seems to have put another strong performance in in 2022. The point of anything like this is continuing to be transparent about how it has performed, so that is why I like to do these.

The top 10 players in this draft in VORP, to date, came from the high success bucket. Ditto for BPM. The one breakthrough in win shares is Braun (10th) but the data just consistently has said, for 10 years here, that you need to be taking players in above median (0.79) PDIFF bucket.

Pick wise, 5 of the top 10 were non lottery picks and it just absolutely loved Walker, as a guy outside the draft think consensus. So that was a really big hit after a season.

And then the guys it didn't like also held up......sniffing out Johnny Davis as a landmine in the lottery. Maybe a couple guys who could stick in the league? But no one breaking through as of year 1.

You are on a good run. Have you posted anything about Craig Porter Jr? Just seems like a guy your model would like, but he is quite old

 

[pinoycavsfan]

RCF hands down has the best draft content. Thanks to all of you!

 

[I'mWithDan]

You are on a good run. Have you posted anything about Craig Porter Jr? Just seems like a guy your model would like, but he is quite old

It doesn't hate him doesn't love him. He's worth a shot, especially relative to his skillset and physical readiness to play.

 

[Cavatt]

It doesn't hate him doesn't love him. He's worth a shot, especially relative to his skillset and physical readiness to play.

Is it just his age? Seems like stuffing the stat sheet like that as a guard would be really good. 3 pt volume?

 

[I'mWithDan]

Is it just his age? Seems like stuffing the stat sheet like that as a guard would be really good. 3 pt volume?

The bar is just so astronomically high at the guard position. Guys that go on to succeed almost always have exceptional production markers. So it isn’t that he didn’t produce, just that he didn’t produce in a way that was all that unique, relative to the way a median guard does.

Doesn’t mean he can’t make it, just that he’s a lower success case. I think the way he plays and the role he is going to be asked to fill is a match. So I would imagine his odds are better than usual at actually coming out of the wash.

 

[Cavatt]

The bar is just so astronomically high at the guard position. Guys that go on to succeed almost always have exceptional production markers. So it isn’t that he didn’t produce, just that he didn’t produce in a way that was all that unique, relative to the way a median guard does.

Doesn’t mean he can’t make it, just that he’s a lower success case. I think the way he plays and the role he is going to be asked to fill is a match. So I would imagine his odds are better than usual at actually coming out of the wash.

Right so any bad indicators are amplified at this position.

 

[Cavatt]

Man, bums me out we didn't get Jalen Williams. We basically settled on him and Eason as a board and either would have been great

 

[I'mWithDan]

Man, bums me out we didn't get Jalen Williams. We basically settled on him and Eason as a board and either would have been great

Was unfortunate he went before us. Those don't sting as much as having the player fall to you, passing and then having that guy be exactly what you think he might have been.

Eason was such a bad, bad miss. Since they have kept track of the RAPTOR stats, Eason is 9th in rookie season WAR at the SF position. The 8 guys ahead of him, over 10 drafts:

Tatum, Luka, Mirotic, Herb Jones, Scottie Barnes, Franz, Mikal Bridges and OG.

OUCCCCH. That is brutal having had the chance to draft one of the (potentially) let's just say 15 best SF's in the last 10 years or so. He needs to develop but just how physically ready he was to play, that is tough.

Kessler also had a a historically great rookie year. Since they have kept track of the RAPTOR stats, Walker is 4th in rookie season WAR at the C position. The 3 guys ahead of him, over 10 drafts:

Jokic, Porzingis and KAT.

As a GM, that is just a really bad outcome in year 1. Both of those players went in the next 8 picks after your selection......and the guy you took was a 4 year, low ceiling prospect that has looked pretty underwhelming through a season. If I were Gilbert, I'd be offering the lead draft person for Memphis 3-4x what they currently make to overhaul our scouting process.