2022 NBA Draft Safari

[I'mWithDan]

Tari Eason


Jeremy Sochan

 

[BimboColesHair]

Here's a mid point or so heat check on these guys.

Given Paolo's skillset, it is interesting Smith has so much momentum. My model likes both Paolo and Chet more.

My model absolutely loves AJ Griffin.......which is unfortunately bad news for that pipe dream.

Tari Eason and Jeremy Sochan are the other guys that jump off the page as a small forwards.

It continues to love Champagnie, going on 3 straight years now.

Pegs TyTy as the most attainable young SG prospect with a rock solid profile.

Williams and Kessler are worth monitoring as backup bigs, with one of our late 30's picks.

Then there is Keegan Murray......attempting to break the model.

Sorted by consensus mock draft rankings.

I was talking about Sochan in here like a week or 2 ago, glad he grades out well.

And in my fun time off from work, delving down the hole of NBA prospects as basketball is all I have at the moment (besides my family), I have come to the conclusion that Tari Eason is the best wing defender projected to be in this class, and it isn't all that close either.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I was talking about Sochan in here like a week or 2 ago, glad he grades out well.

And in my fun time off from work, delving down the hole of NBA prospects as basketball is all I have at the moment (besides my family), I have come to the conclusion that Tari Eason is the best wing defender projected to be in this class, and it isn't all that close either.

From a Cavs centric perspective.......there are just a lot of really interesting wing profiles in this draft, in the Cavs range.

Trade up for Griffin is maybe on the table.......although analytically he's so far out there, there seems there's little chance. He looks so much like Franz did last year.......who eventually bubbled all the way up to the top 10.

But seeing Chmpagnie, Ingram, Sochan, Eason......it is alot of productive wing talent.

The other potential boost to the Cavs, from what I see, is this PG class absolutely stinks.

So if they decide to move on from Collin, anyone needing lead guard help should view Sexton with increasing value.

 

[BimboColesHair]

From a Cavs centric perspective.......there are just a lot of really interesting wing profiles in this draft, in the Cavs range.

Trade up for Griffin is maybe on the table.......although analytically he's so far out there, there seems there's little chance. He looks so much like Franz did last year.......who eventually bubbled all the way up to the top 10.

But seeing Chmpagnie, Ingram, Sochan, Eason......it is alot of productive wing talent.

The other potential boost to the Cavs, from what I see, is this PG class absolutely stinks.

So if they decide to move on from Collin, anyone needing lead guard help should view Sexton with increasing value.

I like seeing Wendell Moore Jr grading out well too.

You know he is skilled if a 6'6 220 wing is running Coach K's offense and getting them into their sets. Like the steps his shooting and shot selection are taking this year too (outside of his FT% going down fairly significantly).

This really is the perfect draft for what the Cavs needs are on the wing. There is a legit chance they can come out of this draft with 2 of those guys too with where their 2nd round picks are projected to be or if they package them to move up.

 

[Cavatt]

Tari Eason


Jeremy Sochan

Whoa. I really like Eason. Has that smooth movement like Shai or Baron Davis. Not super fast, but deliberate and under control. Looks like long arms and good anticipation on D. He's big at 6'8" and I would say that handle is well above average. I guess if he were a good shooter he would be mocked higher. Obvs doesn't have the playmaking of Barnes, but the way he protects the ball with his body and he glides down the court.

You could see him moving to the open areas of the court. Seems to have a good IQ

 

[I'mWithDan]

Whoa. I really like Eason. Has that smooth movement like Shai or Baron Davis. Not super fast, but deliberate and under control. Looks like long arms and good anticipation on D. He's big at 6'8" and I would say that handle is well above average. I guess if he were a good shooter he would be mocked higher. Obvs doesn't have the playmaking of Barnes, but the way he protects the ball with his body and he glides down the court.

You could see him moving to the open areas of the court. Seems to have a good IQ

He's definitely the most interesting guy to me, watching his film.

I think he at least has the baseline tools to extend range and become a decent shooter.

He's a 79% FT shooter on 70 attempts this year. A big upswing from his Freshman year.

As you said, stylistically, definitely has that Barnes glide physically. Postive scoring and hustle markers.

Curious to see if he is a riser. Hopefully not and an option for the Cavs.

 

[adam81king]

Here's a mid point or so heat check on these guys.

Given Paolo's skillset, it is interesting Smith has so much momentum. My model likes both Paolo and Chet more.

My model absolutely loves AJ Griffin.......which is unfortunately bad news for that pipe dream.

Tari Eason and Jeremy Sochan are the other guys that jump off the page as a small forwards.

It continues to love Champagnie, going on 3 straight years now.

Pegs TyTy as the most attainable young SG prospect, with a rock solid profile.

Williams and Kessler are worth monitoring as backup bigs, with one of our late 30's picks.

Then there is Keegan Murray......attempting to break the model.

Sorted by consensus mock draft rankings.

I'm gonna die on that Max Christie hill all by myself....

 

[adam81king]

@I'mWithDan - I don't think your models pinpoint specific skillsets, but who do you have as the best "scorers" from the wing position in this draft? SGs and SFs...

 

[MirORich]

 

[I'mWithDan]

@I'mWithDan - I don't think your models pinpoint specific skillsets, but who do you have as the best "scorers" from the wing position in this draft? SGs and SFs...

Yeah, my model is a little different in that sense. It doesn't try to project specific skillsets, it just looks at total impact relative to positional peers.

When I got interested in this stuff 7 or 8 years ago and started building various models to test, I was fascinated by how guys like Kawhi fell through the cracks.......players that eventually went on to just absolutely out kick their draft capital. I don't think it is hard to identify the Anthony Davis types but I do think it is hard to find value beyond the first few picks. So I personally just wanted to study what profiles had more success than others.

Using Kawhi as an example, his really only truly standout trait was rebounding.....he was an elite rebounder.......but everything else was kind of just above average to slightly above average, relative to the prospect database. Would you really draft a 3 because he could rebound? I would imagine not. But when you added up all those more marginally good things he does, he ranked out really well relative to a typical NBA SF prospect. Draymond is a very similar profile for example. So was Paul George. These guys that don't have supernova type skills but can simply impact a game overall.

In terms of scoring, you can peek at things like PTS per 100 / PTS per FGA / FTA per FGA / FTA per 2PFGA / 3PM per PTS to get a sense for how they generate offense across these categories. Warmer colors in all of these things would be a good indicator for trying to sort them.

The guys who stand out as scoring prospects, to me.......would be:

Paolo, Ivey, Mathurin, Davis and Murray

Ivey specifically, just looks like an absolute scoring rockstar. Just no weaknesses.

Guys who are almost there:

Griffin, Moore, Eason, Champagnie

Eason just is, again.......the craziest prospect to me.

I see Chad Ford sniffing around Eason, so only a matter of time but it is laughable that his consensus mock rating is 34 right now.

 

[sportscoach]

Yeah, my model is a little different in that sense. It doesn't try to project specific skillsets, it just looks at total impact relative to positional peers.

When I got interested in this stuff 7 or 8 years ago and started building various models to test, I was fascinated by how guys like Kawhi fell through the cracks.......players that eventually went on to just absolutely out kick their draft capital. I don't think it is hard to identify the Anthony Davis types but I do think it is hard to find value beyond the first few picks. So I personally just wanted to study what profiles had more success than others.

Using Kawhi as an example, his really only truly standout trait was rebounding.....he was an elite rebounder.......but everything else was kind of just above average to slightly above average, relative to the prospect database. Would you really draft a 3 because he could rebound? I would imagine not. But when you added up all those more marginally good things he does, he ranked out really well relative to a typical NBA SF prospect. Draymond is a very similar profile for example. So was Paul George. These guys that don't have supernova type skills but can simply impact a game overall.

In terms of scoring, you can peek at things like PTS per 100 / PTS per FGA / FTA per FGA / FTA per 2PFGA / 3PM per PTS to get a sense for how they generate offense across these categories. Warmer colors in all of these things would be a good indicator for trying to sort them.

The guys who stand out as scoring prospects, to me.......would be:

Paolo, Ivey, Mathurin, Davis and Murray

Ivey specifically, just looks like an absolute scoring rockstar. Just no weaknesses.

Guys who are almost there:

Griffin, Moore, Eason, Champagnie

Eason just is, again.......the craziest prospect to me.

I see Chad Ford sniffing around Eason, so only a matter of time but it is laughable that his consensus mock rating is 34 right now.

Which years do you have a list like this for? I am curious to see how accurate it has been...

It sounds like Ivey is your number one and Eason is your sleeper?

 

[I'mWithDan]

Which years do you have a list like this for? I am curious to see how accurate it has been...

It sounds like Ivey is your number one and Eason is your sleeper?

The model has run every year possession data has been available for prospects. Where it really shines is narrowing the field.

Taking 100 prospects and narrowing it to 20 or so you should dive deeper on.

The idea being, the more you can narrow the pool, the better your chances of having draft success.

2022 NBA Draft Safari

I also downloaded all of 538's RAPTOR data to see things like possession era WAR performance. Here was the result to date (Drafts 2011-2021). I list Median a lot here and I think this is a good illustration of the manifestation of bucketing. So, PDIFF as a number isn't going to be predictive...

realcavsfans.com

That first post on page 9 talks through the success of the bucketing exercise.

And the last post on page 8 also talks through the correlation between PDIFF, the metric that is spit out and NBA BPM.

There's still a lot of room for qualitative measures here.......but using overall impact to sort catches a vast, vast majority of the successful guys.

Will it catch everyone? No. There will be some outliers but the posts talk through success to date.

 

[I'mWithDan]

It sounds like Ivey is your number one and Eason is your sleeper?

Eason is just a guy that is grossly underrated by mock draft sites.

It is always interesting to follow. Guys like Wagner and Barnes were this way about this time last year.

Not saying he ascends that high but prospects like Eason more so underline the group think in the mock draft community.

So much of this data will change by years' end but when you get half a season, it tends to sniff out (already), the guys that will bubble up.

Midway, those guys (to me), would be Griffin, Eason, Sochan and Moore. I would expect 2 would be lottery guys when it is all said and done but we'll see.

In terms of Ivey, I do just love him. He's fiery, competitive, ultra productive. If I were going for a realistic farm sell......lets say OKC lands at 4....they already pick at 11. Would they do something like Sexton, #21 and a future unprotected 1st? I suspect they would......but who knows. To me, there's an argument he's the best SG prospect in the last 10 years.

 

[MD13]

 

[BimboColesHair]

Good, keep pumping wings into this class!