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2022 Post-Season | Division Series | Yankees vs. Guardians | Oct. 11 - ?, 2022

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Wham with the Right Hand

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Coming off a two-game “sweep” of the Rays the Guardians take on the Yankees. The Yankees finished with 99 wins but were only 35-35 since the All-Star break. They have been outstanding at home (54-27) but mediocre on the road (42-39). They have the home field advantage, however.

This has been a tale of two seasons for the Yankees as they rolled into the All-Star break with a 64-28 record and on pace for a 112-win season. There were comparisons to the ’27 Yankees. Then injuries in the second half took their toll and they finished 35-35.

Against teams that finished below .500 the Yankees were 20-10 in the second half. Against teams over .500 they were 15-25. The Guardians were 46-26 in the second half.

However, in a short series you only face the opponent’s best starters and they are getting Luis Severino back. Severino is scheduled to start Game 3. He was out for two months but has been great in three starts since returning. He no-hit the Rangers for seven innings in his last start. He’s 7-3, 3.18 on the season in 19 starts.

Garrit Cole is 13-8, 3.50, and has a 1.42 ERA against the G’s this year. Nestor Cortes, a lefty, is 12-4, 2.44. And then Severino. Runs will again be hard to come by.

The Yankees dominated the season series 5-1 but those games were in April and July when the Yankees were better and the Guardians were worse. I don’t think those games have much relevance now. A quick review:

Game 1) 4-1 loss. Eli Morgan started, followed by Logan Allen, Tully, and Pilkington. Judge hit home runs off Morgan and Tully. We won’t see any of those guys this series, except possibly Morgan in relief.

Game 2) 5-4 loss. Quantrill pitched into the 7th, allowing three runs. Cortes allowed two. Franmil, Clement, and Mercado were a combined 0-for-10. They’re all gone.

Game 3) 10-2 loss. Civale allowed 6 runs and Kirk McCarty 4. Cole pitched 6.2 shutout innings. Civale is pitching much better now than he was in April.

Game 4) 13-4 loss. McCarty, Gose, Castro, and Ernie Clement pitched.

Game 5) 6-1 loss. Civale gave up 4 runs in 6.1 innings. Cortes allowed one run.

Game 6) 2-0 win. McKenzie shut them out on 1 hits for 7 innings.

The Yankees did not face Bieber this year, McKenzie dominated them, and Quantrill was solid. Most of their damage was done against guys who aren't on the roster anymore.

The Guardians are 26-6 in their last 32 and are on a roll. The Yankees have been beating up on weak teams and mostly losing to the better teams since the break. Andrew Benintendi is out, which is great because he hit over .400 against the Guardians when he was with the Royals. Relievers Britton, Green, and King are out. Aroldis Chapman has been deactivated.

The Yankees bullpen is 11th in the A.L. in FIP but 3rd in ERA. This is due to the Yankee’s exceptional defense. Fangraphs ranks them as the best defense by far in baseball with a score of 42.8. The Guardians are 3rd at 18.8. We may have to hit home runs to score- their defense is that good.

The opener will be Quantrill against Cole, who has allowed just 2 runs against the Guardians in 13.2 innings this year. However, that was in the first half. In the second half he is 4-6 with a 4.12 ERA.

Quantrill has a 2.15 ERA in his last nine starts. So game 1 could be a good matchup. Quantrill has been the better pitcher since the break according to the numbers.

Offensively the Yankees are averaging 4.4 runs per game since the break. Decent, but not exceptional. In the first half they averaged 5.4 runs per game so their offense is down by a full run.

Aaron Judge is having a historic season and the second half is no exception - he hit an insane .349/.502/.784/1.286 over the last 70 games. But after Judge it drops off. Here are their next best second half hitters by OPS:

Rizzo .222/.771 (515 OPS lower than Judge)
Cabrera .247/.740
Torres .243/.702
Donaldson .219/.661
Kiner-Falefa .246/.639
LeMahieu .228/.635
Stanton .151/.583

Outside of Judge, nobody really scares you that much. Take away Judge and the Yankees have hit 68 home runs in 70 games since the break. I expect Judge to get walked a lot in this series. Judge bats second, so the key is to get their 9 and 1 hitters out so there is nobody on base when Judge comes up.

LeMahieu, their leadoff hitter, has a .267 on-base percentage since Aug.1 so he has been struggling. At age 34 he may be worn down. It will be key to keep him off the bases ahead of Judge.

To summarize, they have excellent starting pitching in Cole, Cortes, and Severino, although Cole has been below average in the second half. Their defense is elite. The bullpen is just OK. Their hitting in the second half is good but not great at 4.4 runs per game. They’re 15-25 against teams over .500 in the second half. But they are very well rested and have the home field advantage, where they have been dominant.

I think the key is to get a win in either Game 1 or Game 2 in New York, which would mean we either get to Cole for some runs in Game 1 or Bieber shuts them down in Game 2 while we scrape together a couple of runs off Cortes and their bullpen. Then come back for two games at home tied 1-1. The Yankees are barely over .500 on the road, so hopefully we close them out at home.

If it goes to Game 5 anything could happen. Sponge Bob could pull another Rajai Davis.

The Game 3 matchup of McKenzie against Severino could be epic.
 
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Schedule:

Game 1 @ Yankees - 7:37PM Tue 10/11
Game 2 @ Yankees - 7:37PM Thu 10/13
Game 3 vs. Yankees - TBD Sat 10/15
Game 4 vs. Yankees* - TBD Sun 10/16
Game 5 @ Yankees* - TBD Mon 10/17

*if necessary.
All games on TBS & MLBN (spanish)
 
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Man fuck Rizzo, I had that dude on my fantasy team and he was so inconsistent. I think the Guards have a real shot in this series.
 
I think the Guards have a real shot in this series.

I kinda do as well. I was doing a position by position breakdown over the weekend and the Yankees have some holes in that roster.

Should be fun
 
Man fuck Rizzo, I had that dude on my fantasy team and he was so inconsistent. I think the Guards have a real shot in this series.
1. True
2. Of course they have a chance. They have to keep momentum and keep the Yanks hitters on their heels. My concern is if the Gs can manufacture runs; the first two playoff games they couldn't at all. The only team I think that their odds are low is the Astros, I'm still convinced Straw is a double.agent.
 
National TV broadcast team for the Guards- Yanks series:

Bob Costas play by play with Ron Darling analyst and reporter Lauren Shehadi.
 

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