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2022 Post-Season | Wild Card Series | Rays @ Guardians | Oct. 7-9, 2022

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Wham with the Right Hand

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The unexpected (by most) Cleveland Guardians post-season is here! The Tampa Bay Rays arrive in frigid northeastern Ohio for a three-game win-or-go-home playoff series. Highs are expected to be in the mid-50’s and about 61 on Sunday. Hopefully this will throw the boys from the Sunshine State off their game.

These teams are moving in opposite directions; the Guardians are 24-6 in their last 30 while the floundering Rays have lost 12 of 16. To be fair, all of their last 16 games have been against Houston, Toronto, Cleveland, and Boston.

The Guardians are 46-35 at home while the Rays are 35-46 on the road. The G’s won the season series 4-2, but the cumulative score was 22-18, so these teams were essentially even in the head-to-head matchups.

The Guardians pitching staff has a 2.73 ERA against Tampa. If you remove Zach Plesac, who won’t be starting, the ERA drops to 2.12.

Tampa ranks 21st in the majors in runs per game. Recently they have really struggled, scoring just 25 runs in their last 11 games. That includes 8 runs in 3 games against Cleveland last week, four of them came in one inning. The Rays are carried by their pitching. For the season they are 4th in the majors in ERA. That breaks down to 3.01 at home and 3.83 on the road.

This has all the earmarks of a close, low scoring series which is what we’ve seen in the previous six games between these teams.

The Rays’ top hitters this year in OPS are Yandy Diaz (.824), Randy Arozarena (.773), Harold Ramirez (.747), and Wander Franco (.746). For all their reputation for having a great farm system, two of their top four hitters are guys they got from us.

Arozarena is 1-for-23 against the G’s this year, but he’s hitting an astonishing .354/1.196 in 96 post-season at-bats with 11 home runs. Christian Bethancourt is hitting .414 against the Guardians this year, not bad for a 31-year-old journeyman catcher with a .252 BA overall. But Tampa pitchers have an ERA of over 4.00 when he’s catching.

Harold Ramirez hit .300 this year and .324 with runners on, but only .143 against the Guardians. Brandon Lowe hit .364 agains the G’s but he is out with an injury.

The Rays rank 25th of 30 teams in both home runs per game and slugging percentage. They are 35-35 since the All-Star break and Fangraphs ranks them 9 of 15 A.L. teams in WAR since the break.
However, we won’t face the entire Rays pitching staff this weekend, just their three best starters and their best relievers.

In Game 1 it’s Bieber vs. Shane McClanahan, a 25-year-old lefty in a battle of two of the best young starters named Shane in baseball. McClanahan is 12-8, 2.54, but that may be a little misleading. His first half sOPS+ was a glittering 43 (57% better than average) while his second half number was a pretty good but not great 89.

In September and October McClanahan is 1-3 with a 5.21 ERA. He started going downhill on July 31 when the Guardians scored 5 runs off him in 4.1 innings. He did not pitch from Aug. 24 to Sep. 15 after being placed on the 15-day IL with a shoulder impingement. In his last three starts he’s allowed 11 runs in 14 innings, although he did hold the Astros to 2 runs in 5 innings in his last start.

In four September starts McClanahan has thrown between 67-83 pitches. They just want 5-6 good innings from him.

Bieber has started twice against the Rays with a 3.46 ERA in 13 innings. Four of the five runs they scored off him came in one inning where they hit two doubles, a single, and a home run in a 12-pitch sequence. The other 12 innings they scored one run.

Since the All-Star break the Rays’ bullpen ranks 4th in the majors in xFIP (the Guardians are 2nd). Their bullpen is excellent so runs will be tough to come by.

Tristan McKenzie faces Tyler Glasnow on Saturday and Cal Quantrill goes on Sunday, if necessary, against lefty Jeffrey Springs, who shut out the Guardians on 3 hits over 6 innings last week. We better win the first two, but if it goes to Sunday I’m banking on Quantrill having never lost at the Prog.

Depending on how it goes with the Browns and Guardians, Sunday could be a great day or a very bad one. Or something in between.

My feeling is we didn’t expect a 92-win season or a playoff appearance so from here on out we’re playing with house money. No matter how this series goes this season was a massive success.
 
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Batting averages against the Rays this year:

Kwan .393 (.414 OPB)
Hosey .296
Brennan .444 (4-for-9)
Amed .280
Straw .263
Oscar .231
Gimenez .211
Arias 2-for-9
Miller 2-for-9
Naylor 0-for-8

With a lefty starting Friday I'm wondering if Tito should start Miller at first base over Naylor. Josh is hitting .173 against lefties. He could be brought in as a pinch hitter when the Rays go to their bullpen. In his last game Miller hit a home run and in the game before that he hit two line drives and a fly ball that was caught against the wall. He hit .275 in September.

I don't like Miller as a hitter or a first baseman but McClanahan is a very tough lefty and Naylor doesn't hit lefties.
 
I'm really tempted to start Miller at 1st and maybe Naylor ready off the bench..

Miller's been hitting better lately and as mentioned Naylor isn't great against the southpaws and this one is gooooooood.

Talk me out of it or convince me.

Kwan
Rosario
JRam
Oscar
Gimenez
Miller
Brennan or Naylor.
Maile (Pitcher's choice really)
Straw

Arias and Benson off the bench as super subs. Naylor as the doomsday device or Brennan if you can't bench JNay.
 
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Here's a little hype video to get everyone in the mood for baseball:

I'm genuinely excited! The best thing about the 12:07pm start is that we do not have to wait very long to get things rolling!
 
I wonder if the Cavs players will be there tomorrow or Saturday. It was really cool when they would show up to the playoff games in 2016. Spida said he was looking forward to taking in some Guardians games...
 
I'm genuinely excited! The best thing about the 12:07pm start is that we do not have to wait very long to get things rolling!

PNWer here. I start work at 8 and will be watching the game an hour later. Hope I go to lunch a happy camper... Don't tell my boss.
 
I'm really tempted to start Miller at 1st and maybe Naylor ready off the bench..

Miller's been hitting better lately and as mentioned Naylor isn't great against the southpaws and this one is gooooooood.

Talk me out of it or convince me.

Kwan
Rosario
JRam
Oscar
Gimenez
Miller
Brennan or Naylor.
Maile (Pitcher's choice really)
Straw

Arias and Benson off the bench as super subs. Naylor as the doomsday device or Brennan if you can't bench JNay.
I agree with Brennan OR Naylor (or Arias even). Defense is going to be better with Brennan RF, OGonz DH, Miller 1B. Not sure about offense but Brennan hasn't been good against minor league lefties so I doubt that will change... In the case we were to go with OGonz RF, Naylor and Miller at 1B and DH in some combination. Who plays DH and who plays 1B? Or would Arias be better at 1B moving Miller to DH? I don't like Arias's lefty splits though.

Tough decisions...

Miller > all of Brennan, Naylor, and Arias though, for me now vs LHP

Is Arias off the roster for Bo? I don't even know what the roster is, so that would certainly eliminate an option.
 
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So no love even from our old friend Anthony C at mlb.com ... but at least we are not last for lineup rankings.

11. Guardians
MLB ranks:
Tied for 15th in runs (698), 16th in OPS (.699), tied for 16th in wRC+ (99), 18th in wOBA (.306)
Sample lineup
  1. LF Steven Kwan (L)
  2. SS Amed Rosario (R)
  3. 3B José Ramírez (S)
  4. DH Josh Naylor (L)
  5. RF Oscar Gonzalez (R)
  6. 2B Andrés Giménez (L)
  7. 1B Owen Miller (R)
  8. C Austin Hedges (R)
  9. CF Myles Straw (R)
Bottom line: There is a lot to like about the Guardians' brand of baseball geared around high-contact (first in MLB in contact rate) and smart and aggressive baserunning (fifth in FanGraphs' BsR rating). The contact-oriented approach could play up in the postseason, as it did for the 2014-15 Royals. But in the past four postseasons, 86.2% of games have gone to the team that outhomers the other (compared to 77.5% in the regular season). So it's hard to rate a Cleveland team with the second-lowest homer total in MLB high here.

12. Rays

MLB ranks:
Tied for 14th in wRC+ (101), 21st in runs (666), 23rd in wOBA (.302), 25th in OPS (.686)
Sample lineup
  1. 3B Yandy Díaz (R)
  2. SS Wander Franco (S)
  3. LF Randy Arozarena (R)
  4. DH Harold Ramírez (R)
  5. 2B Isaac Paredes (R)
  6. RF Manuel Margot (R)
  7. C Francisco Mejía (S)
  8. 1B Ji-Man Choi (L)
  9. CF Jose Siri (R)
Bottom line: This lineup is not exactly oozing with star power. Or power, in general. The Rays rank 25th in MLB – and last among the playoff teams -- in SLG, with a .377 mark. Limited by injury, Franco did not have the dynamic sophomore year so many expected, and a back issue cost the Rays one of their more consistent offensive weapons in recent years in Brandon Lowe. But we've seen the Rays prove pesky in the postseason before.
 
And I say that tweet about Guardians only have 4 players listed in the top-50 headlined by Clase at 25 (Gimenez-27, Jose-28, Bieber-35). But, Rays only had 1 McClanahan at 30th and Franco as an also considered.

But, yes, these mlb.com articles do favor the bigger market teams (bigger name guys); otherwise, they wouldn't put Kevin Gausman at 47 and not even have McK as an also considered (4 WAR vs 3 WAR & .951 Whip vs 1.237)?
 
But in the past four postseasons, 86.2% of games have gone to the team that outhomers the other

That's a scary stat, but the Rays have the lowest slugging percentage of any team in the playoffs so maybe we're not at a power disadvantage in the wild card round. Seattle beat us 5 out of 6 with pitching and home runs so I'm glad we're not playing them, although I don't want to play a team like Tampa with two excellent lefties going in a three-game series.

The Rays are 11 games under .500 on the road this year and they've lost 12 of their last 16. The Guardians are on a roll, but the Rays have more playoff experience and will roll with three great starting pitchers, including this year's All-Star starter. The young Guardians have a huge obstacle to overcome.
 

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