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The unexpected (by most) Cleveland Guardians post-season is here! The Tampa Bay Rays arrive in frigid northeastern Ohio for a three-game win-or-go-home playoff series. Highs are expected to be in the mid-50’s and about 61 on Sunday. Hopefully this will throw the boys from the Sunshine State off their game.
These teams are moving in opposite directions; the Guardians are 24-6 in their last 30 while the floundering Rays have lost 12 of 16. To be fair, all of their last 16 games have been against Houston, Toronto, Cleveland, and Boston.
The Guardians are 46-35 at home while the Rays are 35-46 on the road. The G’s won the season series 4-2, but the cumulative score was 22-18, so these teams were essentially even in the head-to-head matchups.
The Guardians pitching staff has a 2.73 ERA against Tampa. If you remove Zach Plesac, who won’t be starting, the ERA drops to 2.12.
Tampa ranks 21st in the majors in runs per game. Recently they have really struggled, scoring just 25 runs in their last 11 games. That includes 8 runs in 3 games against Cleveland last week, four of them came in one inning. The Rays are carried by their pitching. For the season they are 4th in the majors in ERA. That breaks down to 3.01 at home and 3.83 on the road.
This has all the earmarks of a close, low scoring series which is what we’ve seen in the previous six games between these teams.
The Rays’ top hitters this year in OPS are Yandy Diaz (.824), Randy Arozarena (.773), Harold Ramirez (.747), and Wander Franco (.746). For all their reputation for having a great farm system, two of their top four hitters are guys they got from us.
Arozarena is 1-for-23 against the G’s this year, but he’s hitting an astonishing .354/1.196 in 96 post-season at-bats with 11 home runs. Christian Bethancourt is hitting .414 against the Guardians this year, not bad for a 31-year-old journeyman catcher with a .252 BA overall. But Tampa pitchers have an ERA of over 4.00 when he’s catching.
Harold Ramirez hit .300 this year and .324 with runners on, but only .143 against the Guardians. Brandon Lowe hit .364 agains the G’s but he is out with an injury.
The Rays rank 25th of 30 teams in both home runs per game and slugging percentage. They are 35-35 since the All-Star break and Fangraphs ranks them 9 of 15 A.L. teams in WAR since the break.
However, we won’t face the entire Rays pitching staff this weekend, just their three best starters and their best relievers.
In Game 1 it’s Bieber vs. Shane McClanahan, a 25-year-old lefty in a battle of two of the best young starters named Shane in baseball. McClanahan is 12-8, 2.54, but that may be a little misleading. His first half sOPS+ was a glittering 43 (57% better than average) while his second half number was a pretty good but not great 89.
In September and October McClanahan is 1-3 with a 5.21 ERA. He started going downhill on July 31 when the Guardians scored 5 runs off him in 4.1 innings. He did not pitch from Aug. 24 to Sep. 15 after being placed on the 15-day IL with a shoulder impingement. In his last three starts he’s allowed 11 runs in 14 innings, although he did hold the Astros to 2 runs in 5 innings in his last start.
In four September starts McClanahan has thrown between 67-83 pitches. They just want 5-6 good innings from him.
Bieber has started twice against the Rays with a 3.46 ERA in 13 innings. Four of the five runs they scored off him came in one inning where they hit two doubles, a single, and a home run in a 12-pitch sequence. The other 12 innings they scored one run.
Since the All-Star break the Rays’ bullpen ranks 4th in the majors in xFIP (the Guardians are 2nd). Their bullpen is excellent so runs will be tough to come by.
Tristan McKenzie faces Tyler Glasnow on Saturday and Cal Quantrill goes on Sunday, if necessary, against lefty Jeffrey Springs, who shut out the Guardians on 3 hits over 6 innings last week. We better win the first two, but if it goes to Sunday I’m banking on Quantrill having never lost at the Prog.
Depending on how it goes with the Browns and Guardians, Sunday could be a great day or a very bad one. Or something in between.
My feeling is we didn’t expect a 92-win season or a playoff appearance so from here on out we’re playing with house money. No matter how this series goes this season was a massive success.
These teams are moving in opposite directions; the Guardians are 24-6 in their last 30 while the floundering Rays have lost 12 of 16. To be fair, all of their last 16 games have been against Houston, Toronto, Cleveland, and Boston.
The Guardians are 46-35 at home while the Rays are 35-46 on the road. The G’s won the season series 4-2, but the cumulative score was 22-18, so these teams were essentially even in the head-to-head matchups.
The Guardians pitching staff has a 2.73 ERA against Tampa. If you remove Zach Plesac, who won’t be starting, the ERA drops to 2.12.
Tampa ranks 21st in the majors in runs per game. Recently they have really struggled, scoring just 25 runs in their last 11 games. That includes 8 runs in 3 games against Cleveland last week, four of them came in one inning. The Rays are carried by their pitching. For the season they are 4th in the majors in ERA. That breaks down to 3.01 at home and 3.83 on the road.
This has all the earmarks of a close, low scoring series which is what we’ve seen in the previous six games between these teams.
The Rays’ top hitters this year in OPS are Yandy Diaz (.824), Randy Arozarena (.773), Harold Ramirez (.747), and Wander Franco (.746). For all their reputation for having a great farm system, two of their top four hitters are guys they got from us.
Arozarena is 1-for-23 against the G’s this year, but he’s hitting an astonishing .354/1.196 in 96 post-season at-bats with 11 home runs. Christian Bethancourt is hitting .414 against the Guardians this year, not bad for a 31-year-old journeyman catcher with a .252 BA overall. But Tampa pitchers have an ERA of over 4.00 when he’s catching.
Harold Ramirez hit .300 this year and .324 with runners on, but only .143 against the Guardians. Brandon Lowe hit .364 agains the G’s but he is out with an injury.
The Rays rank 25th of 30 teams in both home runs per game and slugging percentage. They are 35-35 since the All-Star break and Fangraphs ranks them 9 of 15 A.L. teams in WAR since the break.
However, we won’t face the entire Rays pitching staff this weekend, just their three best starters and their best relievers.
In Game 1 it’s Bieber vs. Shane McClanahan, a 25-year-old lefty in a battle of two of the best young starters named Shane in baseball. McClanahan is 12-8, 2.54, but that may be a little misleading. His first half sOPS+ was a glittering 43 (57% better than average) while his second half number was a pretty good but not great 89.
In September and October McClanahan is 1-3 with a 5.21 ERA. He started going downhill on July 31 when the Guardians scored 5 runs off him in 4.1 innings. He did not pitch from Aug. 24 to Sep. 15 after being placed on the 15-day IL with a shoulder impingement. In his last three starts he’s allowed 11 runs in 14 innings, although he did hold the Astros to 2 runs in 5 innings in his last start.
In four September starts McClanahan has thrown between 67-83 pitches. They just want 5-6 good innings from him.
Bieber has started twice against the Rays with a 3.46 ERA in 13 innings. Four of the five runs they scored off him came in one inning where they hit two doubles, a single, and a home run in a 12-pitch sequence. The other 12 innings they scored one run.
Since the All-Star break the Rays’ bullpen ranks 4th in the majors in xFIP (the Guardians are 2nd). Their bullpen is excellent so runs will be tough to come by.
Tristan McKenzie faces Tyler Glasnow on Saturday and Cal Quantrill goes on Sunday, if necessary, against lefty Jeffrey Springs, who shut out the Guardians on 3 hits over 6 innings last week. We better win the first two, but if it goes to Sunday I’m banking on Quantrill having never lost at the Prog.
Depending on how it goes with the Browns and Guardians, Sunday could be a great day or a very bad one. Or something in between.
My feeling is we didn’t expect a 92-win season or a playoff appearance so from here on out we’re playing with house money. No matter how this series goes this season was a massive success.
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