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2022 Season | Series #10 | Guardians @ White Sox | May 9-11, 2022

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Wham with the Right Hand

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On a roll after winning three straight against Toronto and 7 of their last 9, the Guardians hit the road to take on the White Sox, who are also rolling with six straight wins. Two hot teams collide in the Windy City for three games.

The Sox are 14-13 after starting 8-13, including a sweep by the Guardians in Cleveland in which the Sox were outscored 19-5. They’ll obviously be looking for some payback after that beatdown.

The Sox have been doing it with pitching. In their six-game streak they have outscored opponents 20-9. Every game has been close and low scoring.

The Sox have the third worst offense in baseball, averaging just 3.31 runs per game. They are 27th in OBP, 21st in slugging percentage, and 23rd in OPS. To make things worse, Eloy Jimenez is out after needing hamstring surgery. Their best hitter this year in terms of OPS, DH Andrew Vaughn, is also out. This could be a low scoring series.

The Sox hitters are feast or famine. Tim Anderson is hitting .337/.886 and contending for another batting championship. However, he has one walk in 92 at-bats. Throw him pitches just off the plate because he will not take a walk. He’s hitting .293 against RHP’s and .529 against lefties. He was 1-for-8 in the first series between these teams.

Jose Abreu is heating up, hitting .296/.836 in May. But he’s hitting only .228 against RHP’s and .191 at home.

Luis Robert is hitting a blistering .440/1.081 in his last six games. But the rest of the lineup is struggling. Nobody else has an OPS over .628. They have six players with over 46 at-bats hitting under .203.

So the key is to survive the gauntlet of Anderson, Robert, and Abreu and then dominate the rest. It's shocking how badly the rest of the lineup is hitting.

The Sox will send Kopech, Giolito and Vasquez to the hill. Lance Lynn is still out. Kopech goes tonight. He’s a 26-year-old right-hander who is 0-0, 1.17. In five starts he’s pitched only 23 innings. They only let him go through the order twice. Batters are hitting .169 against him. He has given up 12 walks and hit batters against 13 hits, so it’s good to be patient against him.

Zach Plesac goes for the G’s. Plesac beat the Sox in April, going 6.2 innings and allowing just one run.

Lucas Giolito has a 3.20 ERA in four starts, pitching only 19 innings. Vince Vasquez is 2-2, 3.97 in five starts covering 22.2 innings. Dylan Cease, who won’t pitch this series, is the only Sox starter averaging five innings or more. It seems like they just try to get 4-5 good innings out of their starters and then go to the bullpen.

The Sox bullpen is 6th in the majors in WAR, according to FanGraphs. They’re tied for second in saves.

Quantrill and Civale are going for the G’s after Plesac. This will be a big start for Civale, who has given up 16 earned runs in his last three starts covering 12.2 innings. That includes 20 hits in those 12.2 innings. But he’s also had 14 K’s so he’s getting some swings and misses, but he’s allowing way too many hits.

In those three starts Civale has allowed 36 fly balls to 8 ground balls so he’s been living dangerously. He needs to do a better job of keeping the ball down, especially the off-speed stuff.

Right-handed hitters are batting a shocking .388 against Civale. The White Sox three best hitters by far are right-handed, so Aaron needs to figure out what’s going on with that. Now that Franmil has gotten untracked Civale is the last guy on the team who is really underperforming.

The White Sox best left-handed hitter this season has been DH Gavin Sheets at .203/.522, so ALL of their most productive hitters bat right-handed. The Guardians with five right-handed starters plus Shaw, Sandlin, Stephan, and Clase in the pen should match up well against the Sox as we go through the season.

This should be a good series as two teams with a lot of momentum collide.
 
Some interesting stats going into this series, and they show that defensive metrics are arbitrary at best.

Team WAR rankings according to fangraphs:

C 7th (T)
1B 2nd
2B 1st
3B 1st
SS 4th (T)
RF 10th
CF 4th
LF 4th
OF 5th
DH 11th (5 way T for last)

But some ridiculous dWAR:

C 2nd (we knew that)
1B 2nd (Really?)
2B 3rd
3B 4th
SS 4th (?)
RF 10th
CF 8th (no way in hades)
LF 7th

Anyway, the team ranks:

4th in fWAR
4th in wRC+
5th in oWAR
4th in dWAR

So far, the kids are doing OK.

And the obvious need is to improve RF.
 
If you are looking for result based stats, the team ranks:

2nd in Runs
1st in BA
1st in OBP
3rd in SLG
3rd in OPS
2nd in Doubles
1st in Triples
9th in HR
2nd in Sac Flies
3rd in K
7th in BB
9th in SB (70% success)
 
IDK about "must win".. more like.. must not be swept... sweeping is okay, though..
Nah, it's a must win if they intend to finish this homestand over .500. Otherwise, they will be under .500.
 
If you are looking for result based stats, the team ranks:

2nd in Runs
1st in BA
1st in OBP
3rd in SLG
3rd in OPS
2nd in Doubles
1st in Triples
9th in HR
2nd in Sac Flies
3rd in K
7th in BB
9th in SB (70% success)
For a team that is going to rely on good fundamentals, I do worry about those last three. They need walks and to steal bases. I don't expect straw to be as good as Rajai was as a basestealer but they need more guys who chip in there. Bo Naylor, come on downnnnnn....
 
For a team that is going to rely on good fundamentals, I do worry about those last three. They need walks and to steal bases. I don't expect straw to be as good as Rajai was as a basestealer but they need more guys who chip in there. Bo Naylor, come on downnnnnn....
But they're first in on-base percentage. They have more opportunities to steal bases than anybody.

What I worry about it that they won't be able to continue the clutch hitting. They're hitting .302 with RISP and an insane .322 with RISP and two out. That's unsustainable.

OTOH, Guardians' starters rank 25th of 30 in ERA. This was supposed to be the strength of the team, but it's been their biggest weakness. Civale has been a dumpster fire and Plesac and Bieber both have ERA's over 4.00.

The Guards will not end up leading the A.L. in runs scored and the starters won't end up 25th in ERA. Hopefully the starters will improve more than the scoring will decline.
 
You do realize this game/series against the CWSox is in chicago?..
Nah, it's a must win if they intend to finish this homestand over .500. Otherwise, they will be under .500.
 
Saying any series in early May is must win is incredibly silly...

Agreed, this is an important concept.

One could say this was a must win statement.
 
Next year the stakes of division games will be raised and you can category some as must win because there'll be 20 less games within the division. Even early May vs the CWS.

But you always play to win so why not have the mindset of must win?
 

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