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The Guardians, having lost 5 of 7 and sitting at 17-20, take to the road for a three-game series against the scorching hot Houston Astros, winners of 16 of their last 20. The Astros are 15-3 since Jose Altuve came off IR.
On paper this should be a 3-0 sweep for the Stros.
The Astros are average offensively, ranking 14th in runs per game. They tend to score off the long ball, ranking 1st in isolated power and 2nd in home runs per game. But they are 28th in BABIP, suggesting they’ve been unlucky and should be scoring more.
That being said, they’re hitting much better lately. In the month of May, the club leads the majors in homers, slugging and OPS.
What is carrying them is pitching; they are 2nd in the majors in team ERA at 2.86. They keep the bases clean (6th in WHIP) and don’t allow home runs (3rd in home runs per 9 innings).
The good news is that we miss their ace, ageless Justin Verlander, who is 6-1 with a 1.22 ERA. Also, their home batting line is .227/.690 against .234/.738 away. They do hit righties better than lefties, however.
In the opener Luis Garcia, a 25-year-old righty, takes on Tristan McKenzie. Garcia was 11-8, 3.30 ERA last year and is 3-2, 3.35 this year. With runners in scoring position opposing hitters are only 4-for-38.
On Tuesday Plesac goes against Framer Valdez, a 28-year-old lefty. Valdez is 3-2, 2.68 ERA. He has allowed just four earned runs in his last three starts. Hitters are 5-for-43 off him with RISP. However, the third time through the order batters are hitting .326/.789 off him, and his home ERA this year is 4.67. These are small samples.
Wednesday it’s Quantrill against Cristan Javier, another 25-year-old righty. He has been starting and relieving this year. The first time through the order batters are hitting .164, the second time .273, and the third time .375/1.000. He appears to be a reliever who has been pressed into service as a starter due to Odorizzi being out.
If the G’s can get some runners on base early against Valdez and Javier so we get through the order twice by the 4th or 5th inning we could score some runs the third time through before the bullpen is summoned.
LF Yordan Alvarez is their top hitter in terms of OPS at .256/.945. The 24-year-old is a 6’4”, 225 pound left-handed slugger from Cuba. He’s hitting .195 against lefties and .286/1.101 against righties. 11 of his 12 home runs have come against right-handed pitchers and he only needed 84 at-bats. I would walk this guy if he comes up with men on base and be ready to go to Hentges or Gose if he comes up late in a close game.
Jose Altuve is hitting .275/.900. At home he’s even better; .400/1.202. In May he’s at .333/1.109. Another guy to pitch around whenever possible.
SS Jeremy Pena is hitting .360/.969 in May and .345 with RISP.
Michael Brantley, now 35, is hitting .289/.798 overall, .327/.878 at home, and .429 with runners on base. He had this hitting thing all figured out years ago.
So I’m thinking it’s an Astros sweep as they are at home, on a roll, and have more talent across the board. The Guardians best chance is probably to get to Valdez or Javier the third time through the order, when they have been ineffective, and put some runs on the board while getting a great performance from the pitching staff.
The G’s have given their starters two runs or less of support in nine of their last ten games. I don’t have the numbers at hand but my impression of the G’s offense is they are capable of scoring runs in bunches against bad pitching but good pitching stops them cold.
Nearly one-quarter of the way through the season and Franmil Reyes is hitting .198 and on pace to challenge the season record for strikeouts. When batting fourth he’s hitting .161, which is killing this offense. Hitting .161 batting 8th or 9th wouldn’t be so bad, but right after Ramirez he’s a rally killer. Time for him to start hitting, and doing some damage.
The lineup I would like to see is:
Miller CF
Rosario LF
Ramirez 3B
Naylor 1B
Miller 2B
Gimenez SS
Reyes DH
Kwan RF
Hedges/Maile C
On paper this should be a 3-0 sweep for the Stros.
The Astros are average offensively, ranking 14th in runs per game. They tend to score off the long ball, ranking 1st in isolated power and 2nd in home runs per game. But they are 28th in BABIP, suggesting they’ve been unlucky and should be scoring more.
That being said, they’re hitting much better lately. In the month of May, the club leads the majors in homers, slugging and OPS.
What is carrying them is pitching; they are 2nd in the majors in team ERA at 2.86. They keep the bases clean (6th in WHIP) and don’t allow home runs (3rd in home runs per 9 innings).
The good news is that we miss their ace, ageless Justin Verlander, who is 6-1 with a 1.22 ERA. Also, their home batting line is .227/.690 against .234/.738 away. They do hit righties better than lefties, however.
In the opener Luis Garcia, a 25-year-old righty, takes on Tristan McKenzie. Garcia was 11-8, 3.30 ERA last year and is 3-2, 3.35 this year. With runners in scoring position opposing hitters are only 4-for-38.
On Tuesday Plesac goes against Framer Valdez, a 28-year-old lefty. Valdez is 3-2, 2.68 ERA. He has allowed just four earned runs in his last three starts. Hitters are 5-for-43 off him with RISP. However, the third time through the order batters are hitting .326/.789 off him, and his home ERA this year is 4.67. These are small samples.
Wednesday it’s Quantrill against Cristan Javier, another 25-year-old righty. He has been starting and relieving this year. The first time through the order batters are hitting .164, the second time .273, and the third time .375/1.000. He appears to be a reliever who has been pressed into service as a starter due to Odorizzi being out.
If the G’s can get some runners on base early against Valdez and Javier so we get through the order twice by the 4th or 5th inning we could score some runs the third time through before the bullpen is summoned.
LF Yordan Alvarez is their top hitter in terms of OPS at .256/.945. The 24-year-old is a 6’4”, 225 pound left-handed slugger from Cuba. He’s hitting .195 against lefties and .286/1.101 against righties. 11 of his 12 home runs have come against right-handed pitchers and he only needed 84 at-bats. I would walk this guy if he comes up with men on base and be ready to go to Hentges or Gose if he comes up late in a close game.
Jose Altuve is hitting .275/.900. At home he’s even better; .400/1.202. In May he’s at .333/1.109. Another guy to pitch around whenever possible.
SS Jeremy Pena is hitting .360/.969 in May and .345 with RISP.
Michael Brantley, now 35, is hitting .289/.798 overall, .327/.878 at home, and .429 with runners on base. He had this hitting thing all figured out years ago.
So I’m thinking it’s an Astros sweep as they are at home, on a roll, and have more talent across the board. The Guardians best chance is probably to get to Valdez or Javier the third time through the order, when they have been ineffective, and put some runs on the board while getting a great performance from the pitching staff.
The G’s have given their starters two runs or less of support in nine of their last ten games. I don’t have the numbers at hand but my impression of the G’s offense is they are capable of scoring runs in bunches against bad pitching but good pitching stops them cold.
Nearly one-quarter of the way through the season and Franmil Reyes is hitting .198 and on pace to challenge the season record for strikeouts. When batting fourth he’s hitting .161, which is killing this offense. Hitting .161 batting 8th or 9th wouldn’t be so bad, but right after Ramirez he’s a rally killer. Time for him to start hitting, and doing some damage.
The lineup I would like to see is:
Miller CF
Rosario LF
Ramirez 3B
Naylor 1B
Miller 2B
Gimenez SS
Reyes DH
Kwan RF
Hedges/Maile C
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