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The Guardians return home, having lost 10 of their last 14, for three games against the 16-30 Royals, losers of 8 of 10. Two wounded and bleeding gunfighters staggering out into the street to shoot it out. The Royals are 8-15 on the road. These teams met in the first series of the year with each team winning two games. The Guardians are 8-8 at home.
One good in the Guardians' favor is they've played 16 home games this year against 27 road games, so they will have 11 more home than road games the rest of the way. They're 11-16 on the road.
The Royals are weak offensively, although not as bad as Detroit, which started six players with batting averages below .200 yesterday (but still won). But they will miss our best starters so far, Bieber and McKenzie. The Royals rank 24th in runs per game, but are doing much better on the road (4.86 runs) than at home (2.87 runs). Their batting average is not bad, ranking 13th, but they're well below average in power (26th in home runs per 9 innings, 23rd in slugging and OPS).
Some of their top hitters in the past seem to be aging out. Whit Merrifield, 33, is hitting .217/.569. Salvador Perez, 32, is at .201/.620. Carlos Santana, 36, is at a shocking .155/.545 with 2 HR's and 10 RBI's over a quarter of the way through the season.
Andrew Benintendi is having a terrific year at .327/.821. He's hitting .342 against RHPs. However, he hits much better at home. He was 7-for-13 against the Guardians in the opening series of the season.
Hunter Dozier is hitting .309/.832 in May and .298/.825 on the road. And 21-year-old rookie phenom Bobby Witt Jr is at .289/.881 and is 10-for-27 in the last week.
The Royals have ramped it up lately, hitting .256/.710 as a team in May after .209/.593 in April. The Guardians, OTOH, are hitting .234/.659 in May, so the Royals have been the better offensive team over the last 29 days.
Pitching has been their problem as they rank 27th in team ERA. We could see some runs scored on both sides this series. Royals' pitchers walk a lot of hitters, ranking 28th, so the G's hitters need to be patient. At least the Royals' fielders should be busy. Royals' pitchers rank 29th in strikeouts while Guardians hitters have the third lowest K-rate in baseball. There should be a lot of balls in play.
The Royals' staff ranks 29th in WHIP so we should be able to get some runners on base. So far this year the biggest win/loss factor for the Guardians seems to be hitting with RISP. When they get two or more hits with RISP they win almost every time, and vice versa.
Jonathan Heasley, a 25-year-old right-hander, goes for the Royals in the opener. This will be his seventh career start. This year he's 0-2 with a 4.73 ERA. His last two starts he's gone 5 innings and allowed 3 runs in each start. Heasley has walked 13 batters in 13.1 innings so the key is to wait him out. He's also allowed 12 hits, so he's averaging nearly two base runners per inning.
But Heasley has been an escape artist. With the base empty batters are hitting .421 with an OBP of .560. He's incredibly bad with nobody on. But once he goes to the stretch batters are hitting just .138 (4-for-29). It's like he's two completely different pitchers. So it will probably come down to whether the G's can get hits with RISP, as usual.
Zach Plesac gives it another shot for the Guardians. Talk about two different pitchers. In his first three starts this season Plesac had an ERA of 1.53. In his last five starts it's 8.07. The bottom has fallen out. Plesac is the polar opposite of Heasley in that batters are hitting .333 with runners on and .452 with RISP. He falls to pieces with runners on.
Plesac's home ERA is 3.52 against 7.52 away, so maybe that will help him. He's been successful against the Royals; players currently on their roster are hitting .155/.496 against him. But he's got to avoid getting hammered by Dozier, Benintandi, and Witt.
When Plesac first came up he impressed everyone with his ability to pick runners off first base. I think he had something like six pickoffs as a rookie. He's super athletic and has a great move. But the word got around. Since then he hasn't picked anybody off but he keeps trying repeatedly, like it's a priority for him to lead the league in this area. I think his focus on the base runners is affecting his pitching because his numbers with runners on are horrific. My advice would be for him to focus on the batter and stop trying to pick runners off when they're well aware of his excellent pickoff move.
One good in the Guardians' favor is they've played 16 home games this year against 27 road games, so they will have 11 more home than road games the rest of the way. They're 11-16 on the road.
The Royals are weak offensively, although not as bad as Detroit, which started six players with batting averages below .200 yesterday (but still won). But they will miss our best starters so far, Bieber and McKenzie. The Royals rank 24th in runs per game, but are doing much better on the road (4.86 runs) than at home (2.87 runs). Their batting average is not bad, ranking 13th, but they're well below average in power (26th in home runs per 9 innings, 23rd in slugging and OPS).
Some of their top hitters in the past seem to be aging out. Whit Merrifield, 33, is hitting .217/.569. Salvador Perez, 32, is at .201/.620. Carlos Santana, 36, is at a shocking .155/.545 with 2 HR's and 10 RBI's over a quarter of the way through the season.
Andrew Benintendi is having a terrific year at .327/.821. He's hitting .342 against RHPs. However, he hits much better at home. He was 7-for-13 against the Guardians in the opening series of the season.
Hunter Dozier is hitting .309/.832 in May and .298/.825 on the road. And 21-year-old rookie phenom Bobby Witt Jr is at .289/.881 and is 10-for-27 in the last week.
The Royals have ramped it up lately, hitting .256/.710 as a team in May after .209/.593 in April. The Guardians, OTOH, are hitting .234/.659 in May, so the Royals have been the better offensive team over the last 29 days.
Pitching has been their problem as they rank 27th in team ERA. We could see some runs scored on both sides this series. Royals' pitchers walk a lot of hitters, ranking 28th, so the G's hitters need to be patient. At least the Royals' fielders should be busy. Royals' pitchers rank 29th in strikeouts while Guardians hitters have the third lowest K-rate in baseball. There should be a lot of balls in play.
The Royals' staff ranks 29th in WHIP so we should be able to get some runners on base. So far this year the biggest win/loss factor for the Guardians seems to be hitting with RISP. When they get two or more hits with RISP they win almost every time, and vice versa.
Jonathan Heasley, a 25-year-old right-hander, goes for the Royals in the opener. This will be his seventh career start. This year he's 0-2 with a 4.73 ERA. His last two starts he's gone 5 innings and allowed 3 runs in each start. Heasley has walked 13 batters in 13.1 innings so the key is to wait him out. He's also allowed 12 hits, so he's averaging nearly two base runners per inning.
But Heasley has been an escape artist. With the base empty batters are hitting .421 with an OBP of .560. He's incredibly bad with nobody on. But once he goes to the stretch batters are hitting just .138 (4-for-29). It's like he's two completely different pitchers. So it will probably come down to whether the G's can get hits with RISP, as usual.
Zach Plesac gives it another shot for the Guardians. Talk about two different pitchers. In his first three starts this season Plesac had an ERA of 1.53. In his last five starts it's 8.07. The bottom has fallen out. Plesac is the polar opposite of Heasley in that batters are hitting .333 with runners on and .452 with RISP. He falls to pieces with runners on.
Plesac's home ERA is 3.52 against 7.52 away, so maybe that will help him. He's been successful against the Royals; players currently on their roster are hitting .155/.496 against him. But he's got to avoid getting hammered by Dozier, Benintandi, and Witt.
When Plesac first came up he impressed everyone with his ability to pick runners off first base. I think he had something like six pickoffs as a rookie. He's super athletic and has a great move. But the word got around. Since then he hasn't picked anybody off but he keeps trying repeatedly, like it's a priority for him to lead the league in this area. I think his focus on the base runners is affecting his pitching because his numbers with runners on are horrific. My advice would be for him to focus on the batter and stop trying to pick runners off when they're well aware of his excellent pickoff move.
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