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2022 Season | Series #23 | Red Sox @ Guardians | June 24-26

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Wham with the Right Hand

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The Guardians return home after a successful road trip, going 7-2 and catching the Twins in the A.L. Central. First up is the Red Sox, winners of 16 of 20. Two teams on a roll collide in a weekend series. The Red Sox have won 10 of their last 13 series while the G’s have won seven in a row.

On closer inspection, the Red Sox have been feasting on weak teams, just like the Guardians before they got to Los Angeles. Over their last 20 games the Sox are 5-1 against Oakland (23-48), 3-0 against Detroit (26-43), 3-1 against the Angels (34-38 and had lost 11 straight when they played Boston), 2-1 against Seattle (32-39), and 1-0 against Cincinnati (23-46). The only winning team they played was St. Louis (40-32) who they beat 2-1 in Boston.

Chris Sale has yet to pitch this season and Nathan Eovaldi (4-2, 3.16) is out. Michael Wacha (6-1, 2.34) pitched Wednesday and will miss this series. So in terms of pitching matchups we got lucky.

That doesn’t mean the Red Sox are out of starting pitchers. Right-hander Nick Pivetta, 29, goes tonight. Pivetta has been outstanding with a 7-5 record and a 3.31 ERA. He has allowed 0 or 1 run in seven of his nine starts. Batters are hitting .160 against him in June. He’s only 37-43, 4.93 for his career, but it appears he figured something out this year or maybe developed a new pitch. He had a 4.53 ERA in 31 starts last year.

The Guardians have not seen much of him having spent most of his career in the N.L. Amed Rosario is 4-for-11 against him.

Cal Quantrill, coming off his worst start of the season, attempts to bounce back tonight. Josh Winckowski, a 23-year-old rookie making his fourth career start, goes against Bieber on Saturday. On Sunday, 42-year-old lefty Rich Hill faces Aaron Civale.

The Sox rank 7th in the majors in runs per game. They are 18th in home runs and 11th in on-base percentage but they excel in clutch hitting. They are tied with the Guardians for batting average with RISP in the 7th inning or later at .283.

The Red Sox are 24th in walks so they are a free swinging bunch. Hopefully the G’s pitchers can get them to chase. But they make great contact, ranking 3rd in batting average. One important note is that they are hitting .249/.702 on the road against .267/.764 at Fenway.

The Sox may no longer have Mookie Betts, but Rafael Devers is hitting .328/.921 with a wRC+ of 173. J.D. Martinez (.326/.922, wRC+ 158) and Xander Bogaerts (.335/.883, wRC+ 150), round out their Big Three. None of their other players with over 100 at-bats have a wRC+ over 104.

The Sox have hit 28 home runs in 34 road games. They have 39 home runs at Fenway.

Fangraphs has them 4th in team defense. The Guardians are 2nd.

In summary, the Red Sox are red hot, winning 16 of 20, but they are 14-3 against losing teams over that stretch, including 9-1 against Oakland, Detroit, and Cincy. They don’t hit as well on the road (62 points lower in OPS) and we don't have to face their two best starters, Eovaldi and Wacha.

This should be a close, very competitive series. I like the Bieber-Winckowski matchup Saturday. Sunday will be tough as we have all kinds of problems hitting soft-tossing lefties, and ancient Rich Hill is as crafty as they get, but he is averaging under five innings per start. Pivetta will be tough tonight but at least he’s right-handed and I expect Quantrill to bounce back.
 
I never thought Id care this much about attendance numbers, but I am really hoping to see this set of games average 10+% more butts in the seats than current numbers and I am hoping that is on the conservative side of things. The Red Sox + an inspiring 1st place team + nice weather = ____________________________ .
 
Everyone in attendance gets a Jose shirt tonight, so hopefully it's a sellout.
 
While historically we have been befuddled by soft tossing lefties, but I wonder if it holds for this squad, one of the best against off speed pitches this season.

I have no idea.
 
Anyway, Quantrill breezes thru the first.
 
Atta boy, Kwanny.

Leadoff base hit.
 
Standing O in red as the Hamster comes to the plate...
 
Foul pop to Cordero, who did a complete circle before catching it.
 

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