2022 Season Series #35 | Guardians @ Tigers | August 9-11, 2022

[PPark]

American League Central Magic Numbers​

AL Central	GP/R	W	L	W%	GB	CLE	MIN	CWS	KC	DET
CLE	111/51	59	52	.531	–		51	48	38	34
MIN	110/52	57	53	.518	1.5	[54]		50	40	36
CWS	112/50	56	56	.500	3.5	[55]	[54]		41	37
KAN	113/49	47	66	.415	13	[64]	[63]	[60]		46
DET	113/49	43	70	.380	17	[68]	[67]	[64]	[54]

My reference was wins required to win division ( naively didn’t know there was actual formula). In my universe 86 wins takes the division therefore 27 to go

 

[CDAV45]

@CDAV45

I will be honest, I think your a bit too bullish on Brennan's defense. If you compare the stats between Kwan and Brennan in the minors, it says Kwan is a way superior defender. Kwan actually should win a gold glove out there in LF and Straw is without a doubt the best CF defensively in the game right now. Brennan is not any better than either guy on the defensive end. That's not an opinion, it's literally a fact. I'm not saying Brennan isn't a good fielder, it's just the fact, he isnt better than Kwan in LF or Straw in CF defensively. Don't say he is, cause with film and stats, it can be proven he isn't. Now its not the fact he isn't an above average fielder, it's just those two aren't just above average, they are elite in their positions. Brennan isn't elite...

Also Brennan hasn't shown the ability to get people out with his arm. His number of OF assists is super low, so it almost rules out being a RF.

Now that being stated, Brennan has more upside with his bat than either Kwan on Straw on paper so total WAR for Brennan is definitely going to be potentially higher. He's going to produce positive dWAR with potentially higher oWAR than Kwan and Straw on paper. So his overall WAR on paper is potentially greater cause of that.

By what standards? "Kwan is a way superior defender" is laughable coach.

First off, I never said he was better than Straw. In fact, I specifically said that he's not quite as good as Straw, but then again who is? Go back and look for yourself. In CF Kwan isn't as good as Straw obviously and he's not as good as Brennan. You are way too bullish on Kwan if anything.

 

[LL3]

By what standards? "Kwan is a way superior defender" is laughable coach.

First off, I never said he was better than Straw. In fact, I specifically said that he's not quite as good as Straw, but then again who is? Go back and look for yourself. In CF Kwan isn't as good as Straw obviously and he's not as good as Brennan. You are way too bullish on Kwan if anything.

On what elements are you basing your defensive assessments?

 

[KluberSociety]

On what elements are you basing your defensive assessments?

If it's anything other than foot speed and arm strength ping me up too

 

[CDAV45]

On what elements are you basing your defensive assessments?

Having seen them both. Speed. Arm strength. Athletic ability. You name it. Not a knock on Kwan. He does a good job out there in LF, he just isn't what Brennan is on the defensive side IMO.

 

[sportscoach]

Having seen them both. Speed. Arm strength. Athletic ability. You name it. Not a knock on Kwan. He does a good job out there in LF, he just isn't what Brennan is on the defensive side IMO.

If it's anything other than foot speed and arm strength ping me up too

On what elements are you basing your defensive assessments?

I figured I would just do all of you... I am going by range factor and stuff like that, and Kwan has shown a better range than Brennan, which means he is a lot better getting to balls and everything like that. Kwan also has one of the best zone rating and whatnot in LF in all of baseball. Compare him to every other MLB LF and he is at the top of the pack in almost every single category. Look at the stats and it's hard to say I am being Bullish on someone who is at the top on literally every single site...

 

[Derek]

On what elements are you basing your defensive assessments?

I’m curious as well because I have Kwan pegged as a middle of the road defender, which is what the numbers say as well.

 

[LL3]

I’m curious as well because I have Kwan pegged as a middle of the road defender, which is what the numbers say as well.

Last metrics I looked at had Kwan as above average, but have nothing in front of me at moment….that said, when I watch him I think “good outfielder” at this level, not potential gold glove as I have read suggested on occasion. Still, “good” is pretty cool, too.

 

[CATS44]

If you dont want to believe your eyes...

Among qualified LFs in all of baseball...there are 13...Kwan ranks...

1st in DRS with 14. (Next highest is 7)
4th in UZR
3nd in UZR/150
1st in rPM with 12. (Next highest is 4)

He is an elite defensive LF, and deserves GG consideration.

But as a CF, he is average.

 

[KluberSociety]

If you dont want to believe your eyes...

Among qualified LFs in all of baseball...there are 13...Kwan ranks...

1st in DRS with 14. (Next highest is 7)
4th in UZR
3nd in UZR/150
1st in rPM with 12. (Next highest is 4)

He is an elite defensive LF, and deserves GG consideration.

But as a CF, he is average.

Add to that some Statcast numbers:
Tied for 1st in Runs Prevented (with Brandon Marsh) with 7, next highest is 3
2nd in Outs Above Average with 7 (one behind Brandon Marsh with 8, next highest is 4)

See: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/lead...&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=7&roles=&viz=hide

Agree with your assessment You throw in an average CF and they can become a top LF. Average CF is not a slight and extremely good, likely one of the top 20 defensive OFs in baseball. Out of 90 OFs that's good.

There's also the giant caveat of "he is playing it for essentially the first time this year". While the adjustment probably isn't as big as for infield the ball moves differently, wall play is different, etc

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I have been asking myself if the bump in offense we would get by moving Kwan to center and putting Jones in right and Gonzalez in left everyday would be worth the decline in defense we would see in both center and one of the corner positions by making Straw the 4th outfielder.

At the moment I think the Guardians believe that they will eventually have so much offense between Kwan in left, Gonzo or Jones or Valera in right, the infield we have now and Bo Naylor at catcher that they can afford one weak spot in the batting order in exchange for the best defensive centerfielder in the majors.

 

[Gson]

Jays fans take: They don't give a rat's ass about UZR & DRS etc etc. of Kwan or Call or whoever.. they do think:

"...that the 28 year old [Berrios] has pitched much better with extra rest over the course of his career, and he’ll be working on six days rest when he takes the mound on Friday...."

Berrios pitches WAY better at home and doesn't show appreciable splits on handedness.. The Guardians are going to need to scratch out run after run after run.. The Jays offense isn't going to go meakly, like the tigers offense...

 

[Derek]

Last metrics I looked at had Kwan as above average, but have nothing in front of me at moment….that said, when I watch him I think “good outfielder” at this level, not potential gold glove as I have read suggested on occasion. Still, “good” is pretty cool, too.

I see, I was just thinking as an overall outfielder. It seems he’s very good LF.

Can’t say I actually pay attention to the GG. It’s an award that has very little meaning anymore. Do they give it to the three best outfielders or to the best at each OF spot?

 

[sportscoach]

I see, I was just thinking as an overall outfielder. It seems he’s very good LF.

Can’t say I actually pay attention to the GG. It’s an award that has very little meaning anymore. Do they give it to the three best outfielders or to the best at each OF spot?

Gold Glove is supposed to be the best at each individual spot from those who qualify (I think it's innings based).

 

[Gson]

Gold Glove is supposed to be the best at each individual spot from those who qualify (I think it's innings based).

Jackie Bradley Jr. is the only outfielder on either team's active roster that has won a gold glove..