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2022 Season | Series #39 | Guardians @ Padres | Aug. 23-24

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Wham with the Right Hand

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The Guardians, with a 2-game lead in the Central, embark on their last west coast trip of the season and it’s a short one; 2 games against the Padres and 4 against the Mariners, both in second place. The Padres are 35-26 at home while the M’s are 35-30. This trip will be a good test against two teams battling for a wild card spot. The G's should be ready to go after a rare two days off.

The Padres are similar to the White Sox in that their pitching is carrying them. They average just 4.0 runs per game at home. Petco Field is the most pitcher friendly park in the majors this season (as usual) so these two games could be very low scoring.

These teams split two games in Cleveland with both games being decided by one run. The Padres hit just .167/.590 in those games but scored 10 runs, thanks in large part to drawing 15 walks. The Padres rank 4th in the majors in walks per game so you have to throw strikes. Civale tends to nibble so that could be a problem.

The Padres are not great hitters, ranking 15th in scoring, 18th in batting average, 21st in slugging, and 24th home runs per game. But all those walks push their on-base percentage up to 7th. Hoynes pointed out that they lead the majors in runners left on base. They’re great at getting men on but driving them in has been an issue. They’re 25th in stolen base attempts so they don’t run much.

The Padres offense has improved on paper since the mega-trade for left-handed slugger Juan Soto, who is hitting .286/.898 since joining the Pads. He has a .979 OPS against right-handed pitching and so far Petco Park isn’t bothering him (.303/1.016).

Their other big bat belongs to Manny Machado (.302/.902) who is currently on a roll, hitting .342/1.037 in August. After Soto and Machado none of their regulars has an OPS over .737. The key seems to be not letting Soto or Machado beat you in a close game. Also, Trent Grisham has five home runs in August.

The Padres have scored 3 runs or less in five or their last six games even with Soto on board.

The Guards will face Mike Clevinger (4-4, 3.63) tonight and Yu Darvish (10-7, 3.39) tomorrow. It was two years ago next week that the Indians traded Sunshine, now 31, to the Padres. Since then he has started 18 games with a 6-5 record and a 3.47 ERA. He’s had some injury issues again this year limiting him to 14 starts. The Guardians have to be pretty happy with the deal that brought them Quantrill, Josh Naylor, Hedges, Arias, Cantillo, and Owen Miller.

After trading for Juan Soto and Clevinger in the past two years I’m wondering if the Padres have anybody left in their farm system. In fact, MLB's new ranking this week has them 28th. The Guardians are 3rd.

Clevinger has been pitching well recently, allowing a total of 8 runs in 5 of his last 6 starts. The only bad start was against the Dodgers, who lead the majors in scoring by a wide margin. Sunshine’s home ERA is 2.96 so I assume he’ll be very tough to hit in a pitcher friendly park against the team that traded him.

Clevinger has given up 8 walks in his last 9.1 innings (two starts) and has been known to have control issues, so the G’s need to be patient and try to work deep into counts and drive up his pitch count. He only has 4 K’s his last two starts so you can put the ball in play - it’s a matter of choosing the right pitch to swing at. Against Cueto on Saturday I thought the G’s hacked at a lot of marginal or bad pitches early in the count and got themselves out. Miller and Rosario in particular have this problem, IMO.

Clevinger has an interesting profile in terms of batting order. Players hitting 1st and 2nd are batting .389 and .324 against him. But then it changes dramatically; batters in the 3-7 spots are hitting .216, .167, .161, .065, and .148. The 8th and 9th hitters are batting .321 and .231.

It looks like the big swingers in the middle of the lineup (think Franmil Reyes) are vulnerable to whatever Clevinger is doing while the compact swingers who just want to put the ball in play are doing very well. Since the G’s have a lot of low-strikeout, high-contact guys they may be better suited to have success against Clev than other teams. In his one start against the G’s this season Clev allowed 3 runs in 4.1 innings.

The third time through the batting order hitters are beating up Clevinger to the tune of .333/1.103 so you definitely want to get some baserunners in the early innings if possible. Clevinger is a fly ball pitcher in a big ballpark so the key is to hit line drives and sharp ground balls that get through. And work him for walks, walks, and more walks.

Aaron Civale goes for the Guardians. This will be his third start since coming off the IL. In two starts against the weak-hitting Tigers he’s allowed 3 runs in 10 innings. Civale is also a fly ball pitcher (118-72 on the season) so this should be a good park for him. He just needs to walk Juan Soto three times and keep everything down and away to Machado and Grisham.

Civale’s curve ball was unhittable by the Tigers and I’m sure the Pads will get a healthy dose. Hopefully they'll be as baffled as the Tigers were. The Padres have never seen Civale, but they have seen Quantrill, who faces his old team tomorrow.

The game starts at 9:40 p.m. Eastern so I’ll DVR it and watch tomorrow morning. Wednesday’s game starts at 4:10 Eastern. For once we may not have to worry about another rainout.
 
Seattle is the must sweep, this we can split lol
Ill be in Seattle for a couple of the games. This is the 1st time I will be going where it actually means something for both teams... Hopefully the Mariner fans aren't extra feisty....
 
Ill be in Seattle for a couple of the games. This is the 1st time I will be going where it actually means something for both teams... Hopefully the Mariner fans aren't extra feisty....
Enjoy the ambiance.. seattle's park is very nice.. and bring home W's...
 
Enjoy the ambiance.. seattle's park is very nice.. and bring home W's...
Always have a good time up there. 1st time in a long time i couldn't score amazing/cheap tix and had to order early. It's also Ichiro weekend with fireworks on Friday, so a packed house...

Can't wait!!!!
 
We are not to that point yet, but the race is approaching the time when mathematics become more and more important.

Right now, the Guardians have to lose four more games thru the end of the season than the White Sox in order for Chicago to end up even. Those four games in the loss column partially make up the difference in strength of schedule.

If the Guardians go .500 the rest of the way....

Chicago has to play six games over .500.

That doesn't seem like that much, but the numbers get steeper as we get closer to the end.

I still think that 86 wins will take the division. ...which means we need to go 21-19.

Another thing to consider is the last six games vs KC. In a way it's like having a bullpen that turns a game into a six inning affair.

The Twins and Guardians have 42 games left. Chicago has 40. But those last six games....which obviously have to be played...probably shorten the realistic season for the Twins to 36 games and Chicago to 34.

If we have a lead or are tied after seven innings with our pen, we are likely to win. If we have the best record or tied going into our last six games, we are likely to win.
 
One series at a time, fellas. The Padres have two very good starters going - we need to win one of these games.

Must split.
 
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Who's ready to stay up late, hopefully Cats gets an afternoon nap in so he can provide the play by play.
 
Michael Kopech of the White Sox left in the first inning yesterday with a hamstring issue (it was initially reported as a sore knee). No word yet on whether he will miss his next start. The Sox lost to KC on the road and flew to Baltimore last night for a three-game series with the O's, who are 17-12 since the break. The O's are 35-23 at home.

The Sox bullpen had to go 8 innings yesterday and they have a game every day for the next six days.
 
Different than usual, I have a bad feeling about this one, Fellas. The last time I had a bad feeling, I was RIGHT.
 

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