2022 Season | Series #44 | Guardians @ Twins | Sep. 9-11, 2022

[petes999]

2022 MLB Predictions

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I am not worried about the Twins, I am worried about the Sox - just because of our hitting It is still not 100% back. We beat up on Bundy and a bunch of AAAA guys this weekend but still chasing too many pitches. And our pen is going to get fried with no off days and Morris, Curry, Pilk as starters.

(home bold)

Sox - Rockies(2), Guardians(1), Tigers(3), Guardians (3), Tigers (3), Twins(3), Padres(3), Twins(3)

Guardians - Angels(3), Sox(1), Twins(5), Sox(3), Rangers(3), Tampa(3), KC(6)

Good: Sox has 8 games vs teams out of race ... Rockies, Tigers Guardians have 12 Angels, Rangers and KC. But, it all depends in Twins and if they give up after we kick their ass next weekend. As Twins can give up due to all injuries and starters down giving Sox a few gimmie wins at the end.

We need to split the Sox games ... Pitchers are Giolito vs McK at home and possible Mck vs Cease, Bieber vs Giolito, Pilk vs Lynn at Chi ... doable but not the best esp Pilk vs Lynn and need to face Cease (most likely 1-3).

For Twins - Polanco maybe back by the weekend. Buxton before year-end. Dobnak is on rehab in AAA but is only doing 1-2 innings so not a starter role soon. Ober is doing AAA rehab as well and has 3 starts with 3-4 innings each, so probably see him this weekend.

Archer did go on 15-day DL today. Hopefully, Archer only needs 2 weeks but with his history and if Twins out of race, they will probably shut him down for Sox.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Huge sweep of the Twins especially since we face three good lefties against the Angels. Fortunately Oakland finally took a game from the White Sox so we're up 2.5. Gotta find a way to scratch some runs together against LHP's.

The Twins are collapsing under the weight of their injuries.

 

[thestatman]

Huge sweep of the Twins especially since we face three good lefties against the Angels. Fortunately Oakland finally took a game from the White Sox so we're up 2.5. Gotta find a way to scratch some runs together against LHP's.

The Twins are collapsing under the weight of their injuries.

4 games up in the loss column

 

[thestatman]

Is Ohtani slated to pitch vs us?

No.

 

[CATS44]

In one of the anomalies of this season...

The Guards are the third worst offense in the AL against LH pitching, but their record against LH starters is 22-16...a .579 winning percentage.

I dont know how that is possible, but its factual.

 

[CATS44]

If we go 12-12 to finish the season, including one win each against Chicago and Minnesota....

Chicago has to finish 14-7.

Minnesota has to go 17-6.

 

[bob2the2nd]

If we go 12-12 to finish the season, including one win each against Chicago and Minnesota....

Chicago has to finish 14-7.

Minnesota has to go 17-6.

If the Gs win one each against Chicago and Minnesota what is their record against everyone else to.go 12-12

 

[daddywags]

If the Gs win one each against Chicago and Minnesota what is their record against everyone else to.go 12-12

Well, it would be 1-4 vs Minnesota and 1-3 vs CWS, so 12-2=10 wins and 12-7=5 losses. So 10-5. I think. If my math is correct.

 

[KilgoreTrout]

Add it up and the Twins were outscored 15-0 — 7-0 on Friday, 6-0 on Saturday and 2-0 on Sunday — in the three games before they put any runs of their own on the board, losing by just a combined six runs.

Against Seattle and Baltimore, we basically NEVER scored first - if we scored at all. Falling behind early creates a lot of pressure and frustration. I’m happy to be on the other end of that.

 

[KilgoreTrout]

Well, it would be 1-4 vs Minnesota and 1-3 vs CWS, so 12-2=10 wins and 12-7=5 losses. So 10-5. I think. If my math is correct.

So we have to beat up on Texas and the Angels.

 

[KilgoreTrout]

In one of the anomalies of this season...

The Guards are the third worst offense in the AL against LH pitching, but their record against LH starters is 22-16...a .579 winning percentage.

I dont know how that is possible, but its factual.

Have we PITCHED better in this games (even for no obvious reason)?

 

[petes999]

In one of the anomalies of this season...

The Guards are the third worst offense in the AL against LH pitching, but their record against LH starters is 22-16...a .579 winning percentage.

I dont know how that is possible, but its factual.

Sorry, I don't know how to link the chart here but I assume you are looking at some iteration of (not inc today's game when I write this)

2022 Cleveland Guardians Batting Splits | Baseball-Reference.com

Complete splits including home/road, lefty/righty, clutch situations, vs. opponent, by month, by role, and many more

www.baseball-reference.com

It shows the .229 vs .258 BA for LHP and RHP ... which goes to the third worst offense. And, we have 1302 AB versus LHP in total

If you look at it, we have 1410 AB vs Lefty starters and all relievers (no matter righty or lefty). Here our BA numbers are just slightly lower than RH starters but nothing significant. So if our #s are equivalent for LHS and RHS ... records should be somewhat in line.
Being 73-65 ... it means, we are 51-49 vs right handed starters to your 22-16 vs LHS (not that big of a difference.

So why do we do so poorly against LHP but do okay against LHStarters overall?
The key is that in total we have 2802 AB versus all starters and 1876 for all relievers. That is a 60/40 split. So, the starter is just 60% of the issue. It is waiting for the relief pitchers that everything catches up (holding back our lefties to sub against their RH relief pitchers).

The other reason is usually if you are a LH reliever, you are a specialized Loogy only going against LHB (doing especially well in BAA) but LH starters are not as good (usually) thus we can have a higher BAA against those starters compared to the relievers that focus on Kwan, Jose and Naylor when bunched up (note Naylor sucks against LHP).

 

[Criznit]

The Angels might be the best bad team out there, hopefully we can keep this momentum going. It's amazing how decent the offense starts looking when we are able to mix in more than 1 or 2 XBHs.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

According to Fangraphs our wRC+ is 97 against right-handed starters and 90 against left-handed starters for the full game, not just the innings pitched by the starter. So we definitely score more runs when a right-hander starts but somehow we're 22-16 in games started by lefties (I'm assuming that's correct). That's kind of an interesting stat but in the long run it should regress to the mean. Hopefully that doesn't happen these next three games when we'll face three lefties.

 

[petes999]

According to Fangraphs our wRC+ is 97 against right-handed starters and 90 against left-handed starters for the full game, not just the innings pitched by the starter. So we definitely score more runs when a right-hander starts but somehow we're 22-16 in games started by lefties (I'm assuming that's correct). That's kind of an interesting stat but in the long run it should regress to the mean. Hopefully that doesn't happen these next three games when we'll face three lefties.

You would have to go through each team and see who we faced ... for example
Yankees - 1 lefty
Blue Jays - only 1 lefty (Ryu out since June)
Houston - Only Valdez is lefty
Twins - All righties
Royals - Lynch and Bubic
Det - Skubal, Rodriquez, Wentz
Angles - have mostly lefties

Don't know for sure ... but looking at games we play, it could be we faced a disapportionate amount of lefties from bad teams and more righties from good/better teams. But, yeah, we suck vs lefties as Jose needs to flip and Naylor is just bad thus we rely on Straw and Miller as our RHH.