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Fresh off a three-game sweep of Kansas City the Twins come in for a five-game series in four days. The White Sox and Twins are 6.5 and 7.5 games behind Tampa for the third wild card spot. There will be no wild card coming out of the Central - it’s winner take all. The Twins are four games back of the Guardians and in third place. They are running out of time.
Having been swept by the Guardians at home last week the Twins desperately need to win at least three games this weekend. Their backs are to the wall.
The Twins have gone 22-26 since the All-Star break and have lost 9 of their last 14 with three of those five wins coming against the Royals. They’re 2-9 against Cleveland, New York, the White Sox, and Boston in their last 14.
The Twins have been affected by injuries as much as any team in baseball. Buxton and Polanco are still out and Arraez and Polanco are day-to-day. They have multiple starters and relievers on the IL. They are averaging 3.3 runs per game in September. It’s amazing they are 72-70.
The Guardians lead the season series 9-5 and need just one win to clinch a tiebreaker.
In their three-game sweep in Minnesota last week the Guardians started McKenzie, Bieber, and Quantrill. This weekend all three will start along with Morris and Pilkington. The Twins will start Josh Winder (3.83 ERA), Joe Ryan (3.83), Sonny Gray (2.91), Bailey Ober (4.01), and a TBD. For the season the Twins staff has a 3.79 ERA against Cleveland.
The Twins have some hot hitters. In 13 September games Carlos Correa is hitting a blistering .373/1.232. Against the Guardians this year he’s even better at .415/1.283. Luis Arraez is hitting .333 this month and Jose Miranda is at .298/.900. Nick Gordon is hitting .361/1.036 against the Guardians while Gio Urshela is at 345/1.012.
Most of those big numbers were compiled earlier in the season. In the series last week the Twins scored just 11 runs in three games. But they do have some hot hitters who have had a lot of success against the G’s this year, Correa in particular.
The Twins bullpen has been below average since the break (ERA- of 108) while the Guardians’ pen has been the best in baseball (54). If we can get to the 6th or 7th inning either tied or ahead we should be in great shape.
In terms of defense, Fangraphs ranks the Guardians 5th and the Twins 18th for the season.
Tristan McKenzie takes the ball tonight. McKenzie is 10-11, 3.05. He was roughed up twice by the Twins in late June (13 runs in 10 innings) but rebounded six days ago to shut them out over seven innings.
Normally Chris Archer would be starting for the Twins but he tweaked something in his start against the G’s last week and is out. Bailey Ober, coming off the IL, will make his first start since June 1. Ober, 29, is in his second year in the majors. He has started only seven games this year and is 1-2, 4.07. Ober is 6’9”, 260 pounds so I don’t expect any Guardians to put up a fuss if they get plunked.
Ober has problems against lefties, who are hitting .333/.812 off him. With runners on base opponents are hitting .327 and with RISP it’s .370. His numbers don’t look too bad overall but once somebody gets on base he’s in trouble. Pitching from a windup he’s holding opponents to a .234 BA, but once he goes to the stretch the numbers skyrocket. At 6’9” I’m guessing he would be pretty easy to steal on.
The Guardians are only averaging 4.4 runs per game against the Twins this year, but they’ve been winning the close ones to go 9-5 so far. Amed leads the team with a .350 BA against the Twins with Kwan is second at .314 and a whopping OBP of .435. The guys at the top have been setting things up for the offense. Oscar is hitting .250 but has three home runs and 11 RBI’s in 10 games. Owen Miller is 3-for-38 against the Twins so we may not see much of him this series. Tyler Freeman has not faced them yet.
I assume Ober will be on a pitch count tonight since he hasn’t pitched in a game in 3.5 months. If we can get him out of the game after 3-4 innings and make their bullpen throw a lot of pitches tonight in front of a doubleheader tomorrow it will give us a big advantage. They still haven’t listed a starter for tomorrow’s second game - that could be a bullpen game.
If McKenzie and Bieber can get us wins in the first two games of this series while we make their bullpen throw some innings we’ll be poised to pretty much end their season in the last three games.
The Twins are 42-32 at home and 29-38 on the road, so they have a dramatic home/away split which also is in the Guardians’ favor. The stars seem to be lining up for a successful weekend but the games are still to be played and the Twins know they can’t afford to lose this series. If Buxton, Kepler, and Polanco can play at all I expect to see them give it a go. None of them played last night.
Having been swept by the Guardians at home last week the Twins desperately need to win at least three games this weekend. Their backs are to the wall.
The Twins have gone 22-26 since the All-Star break and have lost 9 of their last 14 with three of those five wins coming against the Royals. They’re 2-9 against Cleveland, New York, the White Sox, and Boston in their last 14.
The Twins have been affected by injuries as much as any team in baseball. Buxton and Polanco are still out and Arraez and Polanco are day-to-day. They have multiple starters and relievers on the IL. They are averaging 3.3 runs per game in September. It’s amazing they are 72-70.
The Guardians lead the season series 9-5 and need just one win to clinch a tiebreaker.
In their three-game sweep in Minnesota last week the Guardians started McKenzie, Bieber, and Quantrill. This weekend all three will start along with Morris and Pilkington. The Twins will start Josh Winder (3.83 ERA), Joe Ryan (3.83), Sonny Gray (2.91), Bailey Ober (4.01), and a TBD. For the season the Twins staff has a 3.79 ERA against Cleveland.
The Twins have some hot hitters. In 13 September games Carlos Correa is hitting a blistering .373/1.232. Against the Guardians this year he’s even better at .415/1.283. Luis Arraez is hitting .333 this month and Jose Miranda is at .298/.900. Nick Gordon is hitting .361/1.036 against the Guardians while Gio Urshela is at 345/1.012.
Most of those big numbers were compiled earlier in the season. In the series last week the Twins scored just 11 runs in three games. But they do have some hot hitters who have had a lot of success against the G’s this year, Correa in particular.
The Twins bullpen has been below average since the break (ERA- of 108) while the Guardians’ pen has been the best in baseball (54). If we can get to the 6th or 7th inning either tied or ahead we should be in great shape.
In terms of defense, Fangraphs ranks the Guardians 5th and the Twins 18th for the season.
Tristan McKenzie takes the ball tonight. McKenzie is 10-11, 3.05. He was roughed up twice by the Twins in late June (13 runs in 10 innings) but rebounded six days ago to shut them out over seven innings.
Normally Chris Archer would be starting for the Twins but he tweaked something in his start against the G’s last week and is out. Bailey Ober, coming off the IL, will make his first start since June 1. Ober, 29, is in his second year in the majors. He has started only seven games this year and is 1-2, 4.07. Ober is 6’9”, 260 pounds so I don’t expect any Guardians to put up a fuss if they get plunked.
Ober has problems against lefties, who are hitting .333/.812 off him. With runners on base opponents are hitting .327 and with RISP it’s .370. His numbers don’t look too bad overall but once somebody gets on base he’s in trouble. Pitching from a windup he’s holding opponents to a .234 BA, but once he goes to the stretch the numbers skyrocket. At 6’9” I’m guessing he would be pretty easy to steal on.
The Guardians are only averaging 4.4 runs per game against the Twins this year, but they’ve been winning the close ones to go 9-5 so far. Amed leads the team with a .350 BA against the Twins with Kwan is second at .314 and a whopping OBP of .435. The guys at the top have been setting things up for the offense. Oscar is hitting .250 but has three home runs and 11 RBI’s in 10 games. Owen Miller is 3-for-38 against the Twins so we may not see much of him this series. Tyler Freeman has not faced them yet.
I assume Ober will be on a pitch count tonight since he hasn’t pitched in a game in 3.5 months. If we can get him out of the game after 3-4 innings and make their bullpen throw a lot of pitches tonight in front of a doubleheader tomorrow it will give us a big advantage. They still haven’t listed a starter for tomorrow’s second game - that could be a bullpen game.
If McKenzie and Bieber can get us wins in the first two games of this series while we make their bullpen throw some innings we’ll be poised to pretty much end their season in the last three games.
The Twins are 42-32 at home and 29-38 on the road, so they have a dramatic home/away split which also is in the Guardians’ favor. The stars seem to be lining up for a successful weekend but the games are still to be played and the Twins know they can’t afford to lose this series. If Buxton, Kepler, and Polanco can play at all I expect to see them give it a go. None of them played last night.
