2022 Season | Series #47 | Guardians @ White Sox | Sep. 20-22, 2022

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

Wham with the Right Hand

Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Oct 3, 2019
Messages
5,902
Reaction score
14,125
Points
123
Having won 10 of 12 (and the two losses were with Gaddis and Morris starting) the Guardians head to Chitown for a huge three-game series against the White Sox, who trail the G’s by four games. The Sox are also red hot, having won 13 of their last 18. This is going to be a heck of a series between two smoking hot teams.

The Sox are 76-71 overall but only 35-37 at home. They hit a little better on the road, averaging 4.2 runs per game at home. Their team OPS is .788 against lefties and .688 against righties. We have three right-handed starters going.

The Guardians lead the season series 9-7 and need one win to secure the tiebreaker. Tim Anderson is apparently still out but otherwise the Sox are not missing any key players.
The matchups are Cease v. Civale Tuesday, Lynn v. McKenzie Wednesday, and Cueto v. Bieber Thursday. Pitching should dominate and runs will be tough to come by. The Sox don’t hit as well at home and they don’t hit nearly as well against righties as lefties.

The Sox are one of the worst defensive teams in the majors and that could be a factor if the games are close. Fangraphs ranks the Sox defense 28th and the Guardians 5th.

The Sox have a very good bullpen; they rank 6th in xFIP since the break. The G’s are 2nd.

Elvis Andrus said that as the Sox get closer to first place the Guardians will “crumble”. We’ll see if that happens over the next three nights.

Dylan Cease, 14-7, 2.16 gets tonight’s start. In two August starts against the Guardians Cease pitched 13.2 scoreless innings. He came within one out of a no-hitter three starts ago. He’s about as dominant as they come. Getting a hit or two with RISP will be key.

In three starts against the G’s this year he has allowed 20 hits and 6 walks in 17.1 innings, so we have been able to get on base. But those 26 baserunners accounted for just 4 runs as getting them in was a big issue. Cease has a .177 BAA with RISP.

Civale is 2-6, 5.40, and appears to be no match for Cease. Aaron has not pitched in three weeks after suffering a forearm strain. He was on a roll, having allowed 9 runs in his previous 5 starts. It’s hard to say how effective he can be after taking three weeks off, especially since he depends on pinpoint control. But it’s either him or Hunter Gaddis and we’ve seen how Gaddis worked out.

Our best chance seems to be Bieber against Cueto on Thursday. In Lynn’s last three starts against the G’s he’s allowed 3 runs in 18 innings. But Cueto went 8.2 shutout innings against the G’s last month, so we’re getting their best this series. The Sox have rearranged their rotation to pull out all the stops. They want to sweep and finish this series one game back and owning the tiebreaker.

Josh Naylor is hitting .352/.960 against the Sox this year. Amed is hitting .400/.964, Kwan .328/.842, and Gimenez .278/.773. The Sox have neutralized Jose (.220/.523). That has to change.
 

KilgoreTrout

Hall-of-Famer
Joined
Jul 3, 2009
Messages
19,249
Reaction score
12,156
Points
123
Having won 10 of 12 (and the two losses were with Gaddis and Morris starting) the Guardians head to Chitown for a huge three-game series against the White Sox, who trail the G’s by four games. The Sox are also red hot, having won 13 of their last 18. This is going to be a heck of a series between two smoking hot teams.

The Sox are 76-71 overall but only 35-37 at home. They hit a little better on the road, averaging 4.2 runs per game at home. Their team OPS is .788 against lefties and .688 against righties. We have three right-handed starters going.

The Guardians lead the season series 9-7 and need one win to secure the tiebreaker. Tim Anderson is apparently still out but otherwise the Sox are not missing any key players.
The matchups are Cease v. Civale Tuesday, Lynn v. McKenzie Wednesday, and Cueto v. Bieber Thursday. Pitching should dominate and runs will be tough to come by. The Sox don’t hit as well at home and they don’t hit nearly as well against righties as lefties.

The Sox are one of the worst defensive teams in the majors and that could be a factor if the games are close. Fangraphs ranks the Sox defense 28th and the Guardians 5th.

The Sox have a very good bullpen; they rank 6th in xFIP since the break. The G’s are 2nd.

Elvis Andrus said that as the Sox get closer to first place the Guardians will “crumble”. We’ll see if that happens over the next three nights.

Dylan Cease, 14-7, 2.16 gets tonight’s start. In two August starts against the Guardians Cease pitched 13.2 scoreless innings. He came within one out of a no-hitter three starts ago. He’s about as dominant as they come. Getting a hit or two with RISP will be key.

In three starts against the G’s this year he has allowed 20 hits and 6 walks in 17.1 innings, so we have been able to get on base. But those 26 baserunners accounted for just 4 runs as getting them in was a big issue. Cease has a .177 BAA with RISP.

Civale is 2-6, 5.40, and appears to be no match for Cease. Aaron has not pitched in three weeks after suffering a forearm strain. He was on a roll, having allowed 9 runs in his previous 5 starts. It’s hard to say how effective he can be after taking three weeks off, especially since he depends on pinpoint control. But it’s either him or Hunter Gaddis and we’ve seen how Gaddis worked out.

Our best chance seems to be Bieber against Cueto on Thursday. In Lynn’s last three starts against the G’s he’s allowed 3 runs in 18 innings. But Cueto went 8.2 shutout innings against the G’s last month, so we’re getting their best this series. The Sox have rearranged their rotation to pull out all the stops. They want to sweep and finish this series one game back and owning the tiebreaker.

Josh Naylor is hitting .352/.960 against the Sox this year. Amed is hitting .400/.964, Kwan .328/.842, and Gimenez .278/.773. The Sox have neutralized Jose (.220/.523). That has to change.
Sure would feel better if we had won that make-up game, taking the pressure off…
 

petes999

Sixth Man
Joined
Jun 21, 2011
Messages
1,858
Reaction score
1,635
Points
113
Just to recap what is on the line this 3-game series now that we are 4 games up on Chicago and 7 up on Minni

If we win 0 (16% chance) - Chicago need 1 more win in final 12 games than us to win division
If we win 1 (41%) - Chicago needs to win 4 more in final 12 gams than us to win division - so us 6-6 would take 10-2 to beat us
If we win 2 (34%) - Chicago needs to win 6 more in final 12 to win division - so us 6-6 would take 12-0 to beat us
If we win 3 (9%) - Chicago need to win 8 more games than us, so even if we are 4-8, it would take 12-0 to beat us and would then solidify Cleveland as the most jinxed sports town in all the USA (possibly ahead of STL) as 2022 will then rank up there against 2007 and 2016 Tribe collapses.

Out of 14 times it has happened, the only other MLB team to lose 3 straight games in 7 game series more than once is St Louis Cardinals (twice in WS and twice in NLCS)

Odds are based on 538 and ESPN gamecast (they assume different odds each game but, in the end, came to similar outcome (within 1% or so) - 538 Chicago odds (61%, 53%, 48%) and ESPN (66%, 56%, 44%)
 
Last edited:

The Oi

Ahhhh chachachacha
Joined
Jul 11, 2005
Messages
47,552
Reaction score
68,645
Points
148
I see Guardzillas getting swept given the pitching discrepancies.

Those Royals series will give us that needed cushion.
 

Wham with the Right Hand

Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Oct 3, 2019
Messages
5,902
Reaction score
14,125
Points
123
I see Guardzillas getting swept given the pitching discrepancies.

Those Royals series will give us that needed cushion.
We have six games at home against the Royals (31 games under .500) and three away games against the Texans (30-41 at home). I guess that's our ace in hole if this series goes sough

The Sox have six games against the Twins. Hopefully the Twins can win at least a couple.

If we win 1 (41%) - Chicago needs to win 4 more in final 12 games than us to win division - so us 6-6 would take 10-2 to beat us - petes999

This works for me. No way Chicago goes 10-2 (well, actually they could but it would be very tough) and I have to believe with 9 games against KC and Texas plus three at home against Tampa we will do better than 6-6.
 

Wham with the Right Hand

Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Oct 3, 2019
Messages
5,902
Reaction score
14,125
Points
123
From The Athletic's White Sox beat writer:

I hope I don’t offend anyone, but the 2022 Cleveland Guardians are not the best team ever built. But they do seem to be designed in a lab to flummox this White Sox group. Their tenacious team speed and aggression on the basepaths seem conjured to stick a finger in the eye of the glacial White Sox defense. Their contact-oriented approach stymies a Sox pitching staff that is largely trying to blow you away. Adjusting to and conquering this style of baseball would serve as a sort of deliverance from the flaws and mistakes that have defined most of the White Sox season.

And this from the Twins' guy:

Well, Lynn and whoever else pitches in those last six meetings with the Twins (Sept. 27-29 in Minneapolis; Oct. 3-5 in Chicago) will have to do some serious research for the game plan. I’m not sure who will be in uniform for the Twins for those series aside from Carlos Correa, Luis Arraez, Nick Gordon and Jose Miranda.

After the Twins dropped four of five in Cleveland, I’m going to test Kwan’s theory about predictions. I highly doubt Buxton, Jorge Polanco or Max Kepler resurface this season. They’re all dealing with hip and knee injuries. Maybe we’ll still see Trevor Larnach and Ryan Jeffers. But the last four days have to have reduced the Twins’ urgency to push their injured guys. That could throw another wrinkle into the final two weeks.


We were assuming the Twins and White Sox would be in a dogfight coming down the stretch, but the Guardians did such a number on the Twins, winning seven of eight the last two weeks, that the beat-up Twins are now just playing out the string and may not put up much of a fight against the Sox.
 

bob2the2nd

member 32
Joined
Apr 18, 2005
Messages
21,932
Reaction score
20,957
Points
135
From The Athletic's White Sox beat writer:

I hope I don’t offend anyone, but the 2022 Cleveland Guardians are not the best team ever built. But they do seem to be designed in a lab to flummox this White Sox group. Their tenacious team speed and aggression on the basepaths seem conjured to stick a finger in the eye of the glacial White Sox defense. Their contact-oriented approach stymies a Sox pitching staff that is largely trying to blow you away. Adjusting to and conquering this style of baseball would serve as a sort of deliverance from the flaws and mistakes that have defined most of the White Sox season.

And this from the Twins' guy:

Well, Lynn and whoever else pitches in those last six meetings with the Twins (Sept. 27-29 in Minneapolis; Oct. 3-5 in Chicago) will have to do some serious research for the game plan. I’m not sure who will be in uniform for the Twins for those series aside from Carlos Correa, Luis Arraez, Nick Gordon and Jose Miranda.

After the Twins dropped four of five in Cleveland, I’m going to test Kwan’s theory about predictions. I highly doubt Buxton, Jorge Polanco or Max Kepler resurface this Iseason. They’re all dealing with hip and knee injuries. Maybe we’ll still see Trevor Larnach and Ryan Jeffers. But the last four days have to have reduced the Twins’ urgency to push their injured guys. That could throw another wrinkle into the final two weeks.


We were assuming the Twins and White Sox would be in a dogfight coming down the stretch, but the Guardians did such a number on the Twins, winning seven of eight the last two weeks, that the beat-up Twins are now just playing out the string and may not put up much of a fight against the Sox.
Ill be honest I was completely okay with the twins winning yesterday. It would have at least given them a little bit more hope. With the G's just beating the shit out of them, they dont really have much left to play for
 

The Oi

Ahhhh chachachacha
Joined
Jul 11, 2005
Messages
47,552
Reaction score
68,645
Points
148
Really just need one against the Sox. Where is it?
 

eChameleon

Sixth Man
Joined
Jul 2, 2021
Messages
1,896
Reaction score
1,693
Points
113
I told you the Twins would roll over and die for the White Sox.
I'm not sure what fanbase will be more insufferable if that happens, the Twins for fucking us over, or the White Sox for winning the division.
 

Soar

Hall-of-Famer
Joined
Feb 7, 2012
Messages
29,832
Reaction score
35,983
Points
148
I told you the Twins would roll over and die for the White Sox.
I'm not sure what fanbase will be more insufferable if that happens, the Twins for fucking us over, or the White Sox for winning the division.

You never want to count on another team to help you out.

Gotta just take care of our own business
 

DJTJ

3 ball... got it!
Joined
Feb 21, 2008
Messages
15,285
Reaction score
12,597
Points
123
I only care about 1. Any more than 1 is a blessing. And a sweep? Toll the bells.
 

RCF Podcast Network: Simply Vanished

Episode 1:6 The Disappearance of Josh Guimond "They Prey -Sexual Abuse and St. John's Abbey"

Rubber Rim Job Podcast

Episode 1:12 "Lotta Lotto Luck"
Top