2023 Cleveland Guardians Season Thread

[Juice is Loose]

I'd figure we close the books on spring training and move on to the real thing.

Cleveland Guardians, Trevor Stephan reach deal on 4-year extension

Right-hander Trevor Stephan had a breakout year in 2022 in Cleveland's bullpen.

www.cleveland.com

Myles Straw will lead the league in hits, walks and HRs

Let's go boys!

 

[MadThinker88]

oh hell yes!!!!
----------------------------------

 

[Meatwad]

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Fangraphs is out with their power rankings going into the season. They are extremely unimpressed with the Guardians, ranking them in Tier 4 ("The Melee") behind eight teams ranked in Tiers 1, 2, and 3. The Angels, Twins, and Mariners are also in Tier 4 plus three N.L. teams. Fangraphs projects the Guardians to finish with a record of 82-80, a full ten wins fewer than last year and behind 14 other teams that Fangraphs expects to win more games.

Wow, did I miss something? Did Jose Ramirez retire? Is Bieber out for the year?

Obviously Fangraphs thinks the 92 games the Guardians won last year was a fluke. They probably expect big regressions from Kwan, Gonzalez, Gimenez, McKenzie, and Stephan. On paper the Guardians have exactly the same roster except for Byan Shaw (5.40 ERA) being replaced by some combination of Herrin, Gaddis, or Morris, Owen Miller and Ernie Clement being replaced by Gilbert Arias, Benson/Jones/Mercado being replaced by Will Brennan, and Hedges/Maile being replaced by Zunino/Gallagher.

All of those moves appear to be upgrades. I'm trying to be objective but I can't find one spot on the 26-man roster where it appears we are weaker than last year. And don't forget Josh Bell replacing Reyes and Miller at 1B/DH.

If anything Hosey, Naylor, and Gimenez will have bigger years due to the elimination of the shift. All the players that had productive seasons this year are either in their primes or still approaching their primes. There are three 30-year-olds on the roster; Zunino (32), Hosey (30), and Bell (30). Zunino won't be expected to catch every game or even close.

Everything points to the Guardians having a better roster than last year except for the injury to McKenzie. You could also point out that they don't need to go through a period of experimentation like last year where it took them a couple of months to shake things out and find the best lineup. Finally, their top prospects are either ready or very close to being able to play at the major league level if necessary, unlike last year. With eight prospects in MLB's top 100, they have all the ammunition they need to make a trade or two at the deadline to fill in any cracks or to replace an injury with a prospect who is ready, like Kwan and Gonzalez last year.

82-80? Win one, lose one? Ten fewer wins than last year? 15th most wins out of 30 teams? I don't see it.

I get that the White Sox have a talented roster that was ravaged by injuries last year. Fangraphs has them at 80-82, essentially the same as last year. The Twins, whose big move was to trade the A.L. Batting Champion for a pitcher that won 10 games last year, are projected to go 83-79, essentially the same as last year. So Fangraphs has the Guardians, Twins, and White Sox all in the 80-83 win category.

 

[CDAV45]

Fangraphs is out with their power rankings going into the season. They are extremely unimpressed with the Guardians, ranking them in Tier 4 ("The Melee") behind eight teams ranked in Tiers 1, 2, and 3. The Angels, Twins, and Mariners are also in Tier 4 plus three N.L. teams. Fangraphs projects the Guardians to finish with a record of 82-80, a full ten wins fewer than last year and behind 14 other teams that Fangraphs expects to win more games.

Wow, did I miss something? Did Jose Ramirez retire? Is Bieber out for the year?

Obviously Fangraphs thinks the 92 games the Guardians won last year was a fluke. They probably expect big regressions from Kwan, Gonzalez, Gimenez, McKenzie, and Stephan. On paper the Guardians have exactly the same roster except for Byan Shaw (5.40 ERA) being replaced by some combination of Herrin, Gaddis, or Morris, Owen Miller and Ernie Clement being replaced by Gilbert Arias, Benson/Jones/Mercado being replaced by Will Brennan, and Hedges/Maile being replaced by Zunino/Gallagher.

All of those moves appear to be upgrades. I'm trying to be objective but I can't find one spot on the 26-man roster where it appears we are weaker than last year. And don't forget Josh Bell replacing Reyes and Miller at 1B/DH.

If anything Hosey, Naylor, and Gimenez will have bigger years due to the elimination of the shift. All the players that had productive seasons this year are either in their primes or still approaching their primes. There are three 30-year-olds on the roster; Zunino (32), Hosey (30), and Bell (30). Zunino won't be expected to catch every game or even close.

Everything points to the Guardians having a better roster than last year except for the injury to McKenzie. You could also point out that they don't need to go through a period of experimentation like last year where it took them a couple of months to shake things out and find the best lineup. Finally, their top prospects are either ready or very close to being able to play at the major league level if necessary, unlike last year. With eight prospects in MLB's top 100, they have all the ammunition they need to make a trade or two at the deadline to fill in any cracks or to replace an injury with a prospect who is ready, like Kwan and Gonzalez last year.

82-80? Win one, lose one? Ten fewer wins than last year? 15th most wins out of 30 teams? I don't see it.

I get that the White Sox have a talented roster that was ravaged by injuries last year. Fangraphs has them at 80-82, essentially the same as last year. The Twins, whose big move was to trade the A.L. Batting Champion for a pitcher that won 10 games last year, are projected to go 83-79, essentially the same as last year. So Fangraphs has the Guardians, Twins, and White Sox all in the 80-83 win category.

If the Twins and White Sox stay healthy then it's going to be a dogfight as things stand currently. I have to ask of the 3 teams we're discussing, which one has the ammunition to acquire a major talent upgrade? Do the White Sox or Twins have a Tanner Bibee or Gavin Williams that could make their debut this season? Hell, I don't think they have a Cody Morris. I will say that the Twins' pitching staff should be improved this season and if the White Sox keep their rotation healthy then it is formidable, but Cleveland has the advantage at this point. I don't know what to expect offensively though. Could we see some regression from guys like Gimenez, Kwan and OGon or should we expect them to continue to mature and get better? If Straw continues to struggle and/or we don't get any offensive output from our C then our lineup is short again and that's not good. In the end it doesn't make a damn bit of difference what FG predictions say. Play ball and let the chips fall where they may.

Make a note of this though, the Twins and the White Sox better get something done this season because there is a freight train of talent coming to Cleveland that could force both of them into rebuilds.

 

[petes999]

Here are the details for Stephan. Note, the high options ... With Clase having $10 million options, do you think they will spend $17+ million on the relief options??? I assume the 4-year $10 million, is something like $1, $2, $3, $4 million to get something close and reasonable. Expect a trade if he can become another team's closer after a few years.

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

Here are the details for Stephan. Note, the high options ... With Clase having $10 million options, do you think they will spend $17+ million on the relief options??? I assume the 4-year $10 million, is something like $1, $2, $3, $4 million to get something close and reasonable. Expect a trade if he can become another team's closer after a few years.

Middle relievers in this off-season were getting in the $7 million range per year in free agency. It seems high for the team to keep him based on their past spending decisions but with rising salaries, it could be a low-middle salary by 2028.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Here are the details for Stephan. Note, the high options ... With Clase having $10 million options, do you think they will spend $17+ million on the relief options??? I assume the 4-year $10 million, is something like $1, $2, $3, $4 million to get something close and reasonable. Expect a trade if he can become another team's closer after a few years.

I'm with @CalBuckeyeRob

People are evaluating these deals in 2023 dollars.

I promise you the Guardians are looking at them in terms of 2028 dollars.

 

[thestatman]

Fangraphs is out with their power rankings going into the season. They are extremely unimpressed with the Guardians, ranking them in Tier 4 ("The Melee") behind eight teams ranked in Tiers 1, 2, and 3. The Angels, Twins, and Mariners are also in Tier 4 plus three N.L. teams. Fangraphs projects the Guardians to finish with a record of 82-80, a full ten wins fewer than last year and behind 14 other teams that Fangraphs expects to win more games.

Wow, did I miss something? Did Jose Ramirez retire? Is Bieber out for the year?

Obviously Fangraphs thinks the 92 games the Guardians won last year was a fluke. They probably expect big regressions from Kwan, Gonzalez, Gimenez, McKenzie, and Stephan. On paper the Guardians have exactly the same roster except for Byan Shaw (5.40 ERA) being replaced by some combination of Herrin, Gaddis, or Morris, Owen Miller and Ernie Clement being replaced by Gilbert Arias, Benson/Jones/Mercado being replaced by Will Brennan, and Hedges/Maile being replaced by Zunino/Gallagher.

All of those moves appear to be upgrades. I'm trying to be objective but I can't find one spot on the 26-man roster where it appears we are weaker than last year. And don't forget Josh Bell replacing Reyes and Miller at 1B/DH.

If anything Hosey, Naylor, and Gimenez will have bigger years due to the elimination of the shift. All the players that had productive seasons this year are either in their primes or still approaching their primes. There are three 30-year-olds on the roster; Zunino (32), Hosey (30), and Bell (30). Zunino won't be expected to catch every game or even close.

Everything points to the Guardians having a better roster than last year except for the injury to McKenzie. You could also point out that they don't need to go through a period of experimentation like last year where it took them a couple of months to shake things out and find the best lineup. Finally, their top prospects are either ready or very close to being able to play at the major league level if necessary, unlike last year. With eight prospects in MLB's top 100, they have all the ammunition they need to make a trade or two at the deadline to fill in any cracks or to replace an injury with a prospect who is ready, like Kwan and Gonzalez last year.

82-80? Win one, lose one? Ten fewer wins than last year? 15th most wins out of 30 teams? I don't see it.

I get that the White Sox have a talented roster that was ravaged by injuries last year. Fangraphs has them at 80-82, essentially the same as last year. The Twins, whose big move was to trade the A.L. Batting Champion for a pitcher that won 10 games last year, are projected to go 83-79, essentially the same as last year. So Fangraphs has the Guardians, Twins, and White Sox all in the 80-83 win category.

Fangraphs can go suck a dick.

 

[CBBI]

 

[Criznit]

No real surprises here... Suspect they worked a deal HARD and came up empty.. Wonder if we'll find out what it was...

 

[33Y0]

PECOTA Projected Standings...

A.L. East
1. New York 96.1-65.9 (95.9% likelihood to make the playoffs)
2. Toronto 89.3-72.7 (75.7%)
3. Tampa Bay 86.8-75.2 (58.1%)
4. Boston 79.8-82.2 (17.8%)
5. Baltimore 74.8-87.2 (4.7%

A.L. Central
1. Minnesota 87.2-74.8 (67.0%)
2. Cleveland 87.0-75.0 (63.1%)
3. Chicago 79.8-82.2 (20.0%)
4. Detroit 66.7-95.3 (0.3%)
5. Kansas City 63.2-98.8 (0.2%)

A.L. West
1. Houston 94.5-67.5 (92.9%)
2. Los Angeles 85.7-76.3 (54.0%)
3. Seattle 82.8-79.2 (34.4%)
4. Texas 79.1-82.9 (15.6%)
5. Oakland 65.4-96.6 (0.3%)

N.L. East
1. New York 94.2-67.8 (90.8%)
2. Atlanta 90.4-71.6 (79.5%)
3. Philadelphia 88.0-74.0 (67.7%)
4. Miami 79.7-82.3 (17.8%)
5. Washington 61.5-100.5 (0.1%)

N.L. Central
1. Milwaukee 86.4-75.6 (65.2%)
2. St. Louis 85.3-76.7 (55.4%)
3. Chicago 76.1-85.9 (9.8%)
4. Pittsburgh 72.1-89.9 (2.9%)
5. Cincinnati 69.9-92.1 (0.6%)

N.L. West
1. Los Angeles 94.2-67.8 (91.3%)
2. San Diego 93.6-68.4 (90.6%)
3. San Francisco 80.5-81.5 (22.0%)
4. Arizona 75.1-86.9 (5.5%)
5. Colorado 64.9-97.1 (0.2%)

 

[CBBI]

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Fangraphs has an interesting column about three teams in the A.L. Central having starting rotations consisting exclusively of right-handed pitchers. This is fairly unusual for any team, much less three in the same division. It's very possible all three teams with start a righty in every single game. The G's are the most likely to start a lefty with Allen and Pilkington, but they are competing with Gaddis, Curry, and eventually Morris, Bibee, and Williams.

The Righty-Heavy Rotations of the AL Central

Do five rights make a wrong? The Twins, Guardians, and White Sox are all about to find out.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Here are the most interesting takeaways:

Only Cleveland has much when it comes to left-handed depth. Minnesota’s lone southpaw starter on the 40-man is Brent Headrick, who’s 25 years old and hasn’t pitched above Double-A, where he had mixed results last season. He’s behind several names on the depth chart, so barring an unexpected breakout, he’s not in line for a big league call-up. The White Sox have even fewer left-handed options....

How often does that happen? It’s not terribly unusual for a single team to steer clear of southpaw starters in any given year; it’s happened seven times in the last ten full seasons and ten times in the last twenty....

Of Cleveland’s five primary starters, only Zach Plesac has poor career splits against left-handed batters...Minnesota’s rotation might have a little more trouble keeping left-handed batters at bay...

It’s another mixed bag in Chicago...Only no. 5 starter Michael Kopech has reverse platoon splits, and Dylan Cease and Lance Lynn — the two most important arms in the rotation — aren’t nearly as dominant without the platoon advantage...

To make matters worse for the White Sox, their offense thrived against left-handed pitching last year. Their 119 wRC+ against southpaws was the fourth-highest in baseball; their 93 wRC+ against righties was the eighth-worst. They weren’t quite as powerful against lefties in the second half, when Tim Anderson and Luis Robert Jr. went on the IL, but those two are back to hit atop the lineup. Replacing the righty AJ Pollock with the lefty Andrew Benintendi should help to balance out the offense, but he is the only left-handed mainstay in the batting order; Chicago’s lineup is built to face lefties. That’s going to be a problem in the 28 games this team plays against Cleveland and Minnesota...

The Guardians, meanwhile, were terrible against left-handed pitching last season, posting a 104 wRC+ against righties and an 84 wRC+ against southpaws. The addition of switch-hitting Josh Bell will help to even out those splits, but Cleveland is still lucky that its division rivals are so right-handed. Terry Francona can trot out a lineup featuring as many as seven lefties or switch-hitters when he wants to, and his left-handed options will only improve once top prospect Bo Naylor is promoted...

The Twins were fine against lefties last season (101 wRC+) but significantly better against righties (109 wRC+). The now departed Luis Arraez and Gio Urshela contributed to those splits, but Minnesota is still set up to beat right-handers. The addition of Joey Gallo, the healthy returns of Max Kepler and Alex Kirilloff, and the breakout of Trevor Larnach give this lineup four lefties who can pack a punch...

The AL Central race is going to be close this season. Fewer than three wins separate the White Sox, Twins, and Guardians in our projected standings. Thus, the division winner will be decided in large part by the 42 games these three clubs play against one another. That means the White Sox could be in real trouble if their lineup can’t perform against the righty-heavy rotations of their rivals. The Guardians, meanwhile, have a leg up with a lefty-heavy lineup to grind away at opposing starting pitchers.

Handedness is only a small part of the equation, but in such a tight race, every advantage (or disadvantage) counts. The righty-heavy rotations of the AL Central are an amusing quirk, but when all is said and done, they could also play a meaningful role in deciding the division.

 

[macbdog]

No real surprises here... Suspect the worked a deal HARD and came up empty.. Wonder if we'll find out what it was...

I think what is more likely is they waited until the last minute in the hopes that it improves the odds of Bilous making it through.