2023 Guardians Offseason Thread!

[Benway]

{sensitive violin music}

 

[CDAV45]

It is hardly a given that replacing Amed with one of Arias, Freeman, or Rocchio...whether at short or second...would mean improved defense.

Amed was an elite prospect, a top three, based mostly upon his DEFENSE.

His defense was rated higher than any prospect we have.

Just type 'Amed Rosario scouting report' in your search engine and enjoy the glowing reports.

Who gives a shit and it’s not relevant. There’s projection with prospects and they misjudged Ames’s upside. That doesn’t mean that every highly ranked prospect is destined for the same. He’s fucking average and when we play teams with a better SS then that’s a disadvantage. Not one single person is suggesting to replace Amed with a lesser option. Regardless he’s a goner and I can’t wait. I hate sitting around and trying to pretend the inevitable isn’t going to happen. We’re not talking about a high level player here.

 

[CDAV45]

Wouldn't the As have noticed these things in the physicals?

C’mon man! You know all these highly rated doctors posting here know all there is to know. They can even read between the lines of organizational speak.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I recall reading a while back that the human body is not designed to throw 100 mph and young guys who are not physically mature and throw that hard are going to get hurt. Jaret Wright is a possible example - at age 21 he was starting Game 7 of the World Series on three days rest. His career was plagued with injuries and he ended up with a career ERA of 5.09.

Same for Jason Knapp, the 19-year-old we got from the Phillies in the Cliff Lee deal. These teenagers who can hit triple digits almost always end up having Tommy John, usually early in their careers. At least that's what I recall of the article.

Maybe that's why the Guardians have adopted a practice of drafting pitchers with command of several pitches and then adding velocity through physical training. Ethan Hankins is another first round pick who threw very hard and he hasn't pitched in two years due to getting TJ at age 20.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Of all the MLB pitchers who threw 95 mph or harder on average in 2017, 80 percent of them appeared on the disabled list at some point during the season. Only 29.6 percent of pitchers who averaged between 93 mph and 95 mph landed on the DL.

Let’s look over a longer period of time. Jeff Zimmerman correlated the relationship between fastball velocity and injury among MLB pitchers from 2002 to 2014. Pitchers who threw 96 mph or more had over a 27% chance of appearing on the DL the following season. That risk was almost double that of the pitchers who threw 90 to 93 mph. Plus these hard-throwing pitchers were on the DL for longer amounts of time.

Research studies have shown a risk between increased pitch velocity and injury, especially a UCL injury that leads to Tommy John surgery.

A 2010 study in the American Journal of Sports Medicine followed 23 professional pitchers for three seasons. The 14 pitchers who remained injury free had a mean pitch velocity of 85.22 mph. The nine pitchers who were injured averaged 89.22. The three pitchers with the highest maximum velocity all needed Tommy John surgery.

Similarly, a 2016 study in same journal looked at the velocity of every pitch thrown in MLB between 2007 and 2015. Not only was the peak pitch velocity a predictor for a pitcher who would one day need Tommy John surgery, it was the most predictive risk factor.

Does higher pitch speed lead to more injuries? | Dr. David Geier - Feel and Perform Better Than Ever

Major League Baseball pitchers now routinely hit 100 mph. Here is the data that shows throwing harder isn't worth the risk of injury.

www.drdavidgeier.com

 

[Criznit]

Any word on the 2 PTBNL from the Will Benson and Owen Miller deals?

 

[Gson]

A chat with Jason Kipnis...

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023...mer-all-star-second-baseman-jason-kipnis.html

The chat is slate for 12:30 Eastern time.. there is a link in the link posted above..

 

[CATS44]

Something to consider when contemplating what to expect from the Guardians vis a vis the White Sox...

Chicago's two catchers, Grandal and Zavala have combined to throw out about 17.5% of base runners over the last two seasons. Last year the Guards were 9 for 10 in SB attempts vs those two.

They were also picked off three times, but by pitchers no longer with Chicago.

Gimenez has stolen 91% of bases he has attempted. He was 20 of 23 last season, but at least two of the three were pick offs.

Get ready to see flashing green lights all over the place when we play the White Sox.

 

[CATS44]

Lots of talk about the White Sox being unlucky last season, while we were lucky...but it doesn't apply that much to the rotation. Lynn missed about six starts due to an early non arm injury, but over all their basic five started only five less games than ours.

The difference in total IP was about 60. Our five go deeper than theirs. To make matters worse for Chicago, they swapped out about 157 IP from Cueto for 112 from Clevinger. Before expecting Clev to make up that difference this year, consider that he has thrown more than 126 IP in his MLB only once.

Obviously, what we have behind our starting rotation is higher in both quality and quantity.

***********

On the position side, we are worrying about how to get enough at bats for everybody, while they are worrying about having enough quality players to fill the at bats over 162 games.

Cases in point...

Chicago is hoping that Oscar Colas can give them production in right field, while we are trying to figure out how to give Arias, Freeman, and Brennan enough at bats...although all three are perhaps as much of a prospect as Colas.

 

[Gson]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/03/offseason-in-review-cleveland-guardians-2.html

A fair evaluation.. in most areas..

 

[CDAV45]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/03/offseason-in-review-cleveland-guardians-2.html

A fair evaluation.. in most areas..

Signing Bell was good and he should help protect Jose. Zunino I'm not expecting much from and I think he will be a disappointment for many who think he'll repeat his 2021 season. Other than that the offseason has been a complete failure. Not because of who they didn't sign, but because of who they didn't/couldn't trade. There's still some time left to do that, and if a team comes calling due to injuries then they should take advantage of that.

Both the White Sox and Twins had the injury bug bite them last season. Those injuries did the Twins in as they were winning the division as late as September. Some may not agree, but they got better this offseason. The advantage we have in that regard is youth. I'm not surprised we remained much healthier than either Chicago or Minnesota last season and that scenario is likely to be repeated. Should either of those 2 teams remain healthy then they are better on paper than we are. Alas, the games still need played and anything can happen.

 

[sportscoach]

Signing Bell was good and he should help protect Jose. Zunino I'm not expecting much from and I think he will be a disappointment for many who think he'll repeat his 2021 season. Other than that the offseason has been a complete failure. Not because of who they didn't sign, but because of who they didn't/couldn't trade. There's still some time left to do that, and if a team comes calling due to injuries then they should take advantage of that.

Both the White Sox and Twins had the injury bug bite them last season. Those injuries did the Twins in as they were winning the division as late as September. Some may not agree, but they got better this offseason. The advantage we have in that regard is youth. I'm not surprised we remained much healthier than either Chicago or Minnesota last season and that scenario is likely to be repeated. Should either of those 2 teams remain healthy then they are better on paper than we are. Alas, the games still need played and anything can happen.

Twins and the Soxs aren't better on paper if everyone is healthy...

 

[Gson]

Twins and the Soxs aren't better on paper if everyone is healthy...

Everyone is not going to be healthy.. so depth is key.. and the depth is clearly one sided when it comes to evaluating the Guardians/CWSox/Twins.. in five discrete areas for both offensive and defensive play (Starting Pitchers, Top Five Relief Pitchers, Infielders including Starting Catcher) Outfield and Bench.. Doing a complete regression analysis against a full set of variables (DRS, OPS+, ERA, Ratios, Counting Stats, etc.. etc..), the results are pretty clear:

Guardians are just under 13 % better than the second place CWSox...
CWSox are just over 9 % better than than the Twins..

A few notes.. the combination of Cease, Lynn and Gio along with the rest of the CWSox starting pitching results in the CWSox being just over 11 % better than the Guardians Starting staff.

Both the CWSox and the Twins depth in their relief corps makes them virtually the same and significantly poorer than the Guardians bullpen.. pretty easily too..

The three infields of each of the three teams are virtually a draw.. Correa's inclusion on the Twins is largely responsible for the Twins being considered as highly as they are..

The Outfield would be the next closest area of the three teams.. The offensive profile of the Twins LF'er and the Guardians CF'er are what drag these two teams back to the middle..

The CWSox bench is slightly worse than either of the Twins and Guardians.. The CWSox bench players have too little versatility to be considered a strength..

What this means:

-Guardians with 7 more wins than the CWSox
-CWSox with 5 more wins than the Twins..
-12 games separate first to third in the AL Central..

Comments?..

 

[CATS44]

Ask yourself this. Be honest.

Name the three best players for the three ALC contenders...nine players in all.

List them in order of the number of games you realistically expect them to start this year.

For the Guardians I choose...

Jose............157 games last season.
Gimenez......146
Kwan...........147

For Chicago...

Jimenez.......84
Robert..........98
Vaughn.......134

For Minnesota...

Buxton ........92
Correa........136
Polanco.....104

These are not fluky (unlucky) one year numbers. Jimenez, Robert, Buxton, and Correa all have long histories of not being able to consistently hold up over an entire season.

Its very unlikely that the top three of either of the other two will come close to playing as many combined games as our guys.

 

[CDAV45]

Twins and the Soxs aren't better on paper if everyone is healthy...

Yea they are….