2023 Guardians Spring Training Thread

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Very nice performance from Aaron Civale tonight...

Civale is the dark horse IMO. The key is staying healthy.

He was 10-2 with a 3.32 ERA when he hurt his arm in June, 2021. He missed over two months and was inconsistent in his last six starts, although he threw two 6-inning shutouts against the Yankees and Rangers. Then in 2022 he got hurt three times, but went 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in his last 10 appearances in the regular season.

When he's been healthy the last two years he's been a very good starter except for the first month of the 2022 season coming off a shortened spring training. The problem is he's gone on IR four times in the last year-and-a-half and none of those times were due to freak injuries like getting hit with a line drive. One was a pulled hammy incurred while covering first base and the other three were arm or finger injuries from pitching.

If he can avoid injuries this year I really think he could win 15 games.

Civale’s curveball and sinker helped him produce above-average strikeout and chase rates last year, while he maintained an outstanding 5.4% walk rate. Civale’s curveball ranked in the top 10 among all pitchers with a 50.9% strikeout rate, while his sinker produced a -0.6 run value per 100 pitches. - Hoynes

He struck out 10 Tigers in six innings last year and I think all 10 were on curveballs.

 

[Urban]

I think he is most likely getting a Josh Bell type deal. A 1 year contract for decent money to see if he should get more. I would be surprised if he got more than 3 years from anyone unless he takes it to a new level this year.

This

I imagine near every MLB team in the league either has their SS locked down long term or has a SS prospect in their pipeline they're really excited about who is within 3 years of debuting. I cannot see any team committing serious long term dollars to an average defender who doesn't walk or hit for power and whose production has plateaued at a "good, not great" level for 4 straight seasons.

I said it awhile back but he seems destined to be a stop gap SS until eventually finding a home at 2B or corner OF, maybe 3B

But this could easily go out the window if he has a career year. Let's hope for that.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

With regard to the McKenzie injury, when you combine that with Hentges and Morris being also out it's starting to look like this could be another typical Francona season where his team kind of sputters for the first couple of months but then gets rolling in the second half.

However, at least he won't be experimenting with the every day lineup and moving players in and out. The lineup is set. Even last year it took some time to get rid of Franmil, move Straw from leadoff to 9th, move Kwan to leadoff and insert Oscar.

 

[KluberSociety]

Civale is the dark horse IMO. The key is staying healthy.

He was 10-2 with a 3.32 ERA when he hurt his arm in June, 2021. He missed over two months and was inconsistent in his last six starts, although he threw two 6-inning shutouts against the Yankees and Rangers. Then in 2022 he got hurt three times, but went 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in his last 10 appearances in the regular season.

When he's been healthy the last two years he's been a very good starter except for the first month of the 2022 season coming off a shortened spring training. The problem is he's gone on IR four times in the last year-and-a-half and none of those times were due to freak injuries like getting hit with a line drive. One was a pulled hammy incurred while covering first base and the other three were arm or finger injuries from pitching.

If he can avoid injuries this year I really think he could win 15 games.

Civale’s curveball and sinker helped him produce above-average strikeout and chase rates last year, while he maintained an outstanding 5.4% walk rate. Civale’s curveball ranked in the top 10 among all pitchers with a 50.9% strikeout rate, while his sinker produced a -0.6 run value per 100 pitches. - Hoynes

He struck out 10 Tigers in six innings last year and I think all 10 were on curveballs.

It's amazing how people are so down on Civale just because he had one bad playoff start in Yankee Stadium after not pitching for a few weeks and coming off an injury. I even had him in my prediction to be 2nd lowest ERA on the year in Coach's contest and this was before the perfect innings last game. The guy's been good once he's been able to get his feet under him and has gone on some really good spurts. He really just had bad luck for a lot of last year too as his peripherals were fine.

 

[Alabuckeye]

I’m not down on Civale’s ability to perform. I’m down on Civale’s ability to stay healthy

 

[KluberSociety]

I’m not down on Civale’s ability to perform. I’m down on Civale’s ability to stay healthy

Yeah same, which is why it seems like insanity to trade away from our rotation and have these AAA guys fill in. Gaddis already got rocked once and he's the best of the lot probably.

 

[sportscoach]

No they are not because there is no reason for them to be. Bibee is the most polished SP prospect this organization has. He'll be seeing time in Cleveland at some point. The only thing preventing him from making his debut now is the 40 man juggling that would be required.

Time to make a deal or 2 CA. Quit fuckin' lolly-gagging around already.

whoa...I completely disagree with this. Bibee will be here a lot sooner than you think. Brass absolutely loves him.

Bibee hasn't gotten enough minor league time to be above Battenfield and Allen.

Now come mid season the rankings could change, but he is behind both of those guys in the depth chart at this current moment.

I am not talking about talent, I am talking about depth chart to the big league club. Allen and Battenfield will see time before Bibee if it comes down to injuries.

Come 24 though, Bibee has a very good chance of jumping them, but it's unlikely in 23...

 

[CATS44]

I haven't seen calculations for this off season yet, but for 2022 WAR was worth about $5 mil to $8 mil per year, depending upon how it was calculated. The shorter the contract, the higher the WAR.

There was more weight given for recent production, particularly the walk year.

If you average both fWAR and bWAR over the last two seasons Amed has been worth 2.75 WAR per season, but much higher last year.

Going by that, he would be looking at somewhere between $14 mil and $22 mil per year...on the high end for a short term (2-3 year) contract, lower for a longer term. A repeat of 2022 would raise the range a good bit.

If he waits for free agency, he will have the advantage of entering a weak position player class, particularly at SS. That traditionally raises the bidding.

Fans love to point out what Amed is not, but he offers something that ownership and their bean counters hold dear, and are willing to pay for. As a free agent Amed would offer both cost control and production efficiency. Much like Cookie, you can almost write down Ameds numbers for the next several years, with low expectation of variance.

At age 28, he would be looking at a fairly long term deal to cover his peak years. Plus he will get high grades for his intangibles from any ownership groups that do their due diligence in addition to weighing the numbers.

If an org wants to copy Clevelands formula for success, they will be looking at the whole formula, including the culture. Amed fits that culture to a T.

 

[Alabuckeye]

This is not an argument to keep Amed. But I do think it’s a shame that his contributions to the team(a good number being intangibles) are denigrated in the making of a case to not keep him.
IMO, one can make a case that we have better upcoming talent without denigrating Amed

 

[B Mac]

It’s Rizzo so take that with a tablespoon of salt, but he is quoting Andre who would definitely know.

Any guesses besides Kwan? Gimenez too?

 

[yrm0019]

It’s Rizzo so take that with a tablespoon of salt, but he is quoting Andre who would definitely know.

Any guesses besides Kwan? Gimenez too?

Straw's spring HR probably gets him an extension to his extension. (I kid, I kid).

I'm guessing Kwan and one of the young relievers (JK? Stephan?). Gimenez would be a pleasant surprise.

 

[Kiddo]

It’s Rizzo so take that with a tablespoon of salt, but he is quoting Andre who would definitely know.

Any guesses besides Kwan? Gimenez too?

Kwan and Gimenez would be awesome! I'm sure its Plesac and Rosario...

 

[Tondo]

Stephan and McKenzie

 

[Criznit]

Kwan and TMac

 

[nime]

The backup 2 and 3 catchers have been extended. Goal is to have 7 catchers on the 40 man by years end going into next year