2023 Minor League Thread

[MadThinker88]

Well I guess it is time to get this thread rolling....
Generally the various prospect lists for the upcoming season will be posted in a thread like this & then various people can chime in with thoughts & commentary.


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Now to start transferring all the prospect lists for 2023 (previously placed in the 2022 thread) & informational tweets over to this thread...
I hope one of the mods can handle that...

 

[sportscoach]

Does anyone have baseball America so we can get their top prospect list?

Edit @petes999 any chance you can repost some of the stuff you recently posted in the 22 thread?

 

[petes999]

As GBI did their top-10,

Rank	Aggregate Ranking	Justin Lada	Willie Hood
1	Daniel Espino	Daniel Espino	Daniel Espino
2	Gavin Williams	Gavin Williams	Gavin Williams
3	Tanner Bibee	Tanner Bibee	Tanner Bibee
4	Cody Morris	Cody Morris	Logan Allen
5	Logan Allen	Joey Cantillo	Justin Campbell
6	Justin Campbell	Logan Allen	Xzavion Curry
7	Joey Cantillo	Justin Campbell	Joey Cantillo
8	Xzavion Curry	Xzavion Curry	Hunter Gaddis
9	Hunter Gaddis	Hunter Gaddis	Parker Messick
10	Jack Leftwich	Jack Leftwich	Jack Leftwich

And, CleGuardPro did his earlier

BA, has their top 2 as Espino and Williams

So, I thought why not look at how our pitchers are progressing as that is the strength of our system.... will do a few here and there

Looking at Bibee, he is going to really jump up the other prospect lists boards (don't know why he isn't a top-5 in BA. I can see how Espino and Williams have him beat on FB velocity but he has the command. His strikeout rates decrease as he went to AA (8, 10, 12 per 9 in July, Aug, Sept) but you see how he adjusted to AA in his first year in minors. His BA against stayed under .200 in AA but the encouraging factor it was first based on luck (low BAbip) but only went to .203 when his BAbip climbed back to .317 in September. I thought he maybe getting dinged as he isn't as big as the other 2 but at 6-2, 205, he ain't small either (like Burns). In his 2nd to last game of the year, he started to 96 and topping at 97 and in 5th/6th inning he was still at 95 (few 94s) - so he holds his speed. And, more importantly, he went 6 innings in his last 8 starts.

Williams -- I would say that he has a bit more work to do than Bibee on his innings (hit a slump mid July -- tired?) and another pitch for LHB (vs RHB he is .142/.407 vs LHB he is .221/.717). Thus, it is important for him to have an extended ST with the MLB pitchers to compare how to throw different pitchers and pick up something for those LHB). But, you see where the potential is. Yet, at 6-6, 255, he is still getting the benefit of the doubt with his massive size. In 2nd to last start, he seemed to be sitting 96-97 at the beginning of the game and held it through 5 ... in the 6th inning, he dropped to 94-95 T96.

I was kind of surprised not to see Burns in the GBI top-10 but is 9th behind Curry in CGP tweet. At 6ft, 210lbs, I don't know if he is going to be a starter for long (especially in our system). He was hurt in May with a strained shoulder. He only went 1 game 6 innings this year. Just hypothesizing but if you look at this split bases empty (.261/.799) vs bases empty(.182/591), you wonder if he is working on those 3rd and 4th pitches that get him into trouble. In the same park gun as Bibee and Williams he started the game at 90-91. I know that Bimbo said do not trust those guns (as FG said he averaged 92 at Aubrun) and pipeline says he works 92-95 and touches 97. He also used his FB 61% of the time last year. This just screams multi-inning relief role.

I was also a little surprised Nikhazy didn't get more love (16th starter in CGP twitter). He cam in at 88-92 mph t94. And, in his 2nd to last start, he was sitting 92-93 T94 (so holding it longer into 4th but 5th was 90/91). MLB pipeline said that his strength is his offspeed spins and things that hitters cannot square up. And, after adjusting in April and bad September (AA promotion and maybe being tired), he had a BA against under .200 in May-August but low BAbip. The question is if he can keep that up. Worst case is he is a potential LOOGY (not what you really want as a 2nd round pick though) - .147/.475 BA/OBP.

 

[CDAV45]

I'm sorry, but I'm moving Bibee ahead of both Espino and Williams at this time. I have him ahead of Espino for durability and control. I have him ahead of Williams because of his polish and control. Bibee is ready to be given an ML opportunity if need be. Right now there isn't a need to have him make his debut, but if he picks up where he left off then keeping him in the minors is about impossible. I will say that if Espino gets and stays healthy and Williams shows a bit more control, then they are the type of arms that dreams are made of, but Bibee isn't too far off. Especially if he can spin the ball better.

If Morris, Espino, Hankins and Cantillo pitch full seasons and get back on track then holy shit is there a lot of quality SP depth close.

 

[petes999]

I'm sorry, but I'm moving Bibee ahead of both Espino and Williams at this time. I have him ahead of Espino for durability and control. I have him ahead of Williams because of his polish and control. Bibee is ready to be given an ML opportunity if need be. Right now there isn't a need to have him make his debut, but if he picks up where he left off then keeping him in the minors is about impossible. I will say that if Espino gets and stays healthy and Williams shows a bit more control, then they are the type of arms that dreams are made of, but Bibee isn't too far off. Especially if he can spin the ball better.

If Morris, Espino, Hankins and Cantillo pitch full seasons and get back on track then holy shit is there a lot of quality SP depth close.

The key with Bibee is to have him climb up to the top 100 lists this year so he is eligible for ROY next year in 2024 for that extra pick. Yet, I wouldn't be adverse to give some of the three a little work in September (close to 45 days and 50 innings pitched) to get their feet wet. And, if they take us late into the playoffs, it would be worth the lose of a pick.

And, I think we are going to get spoiled with our talented SP depth. I think you nailed the next group (see you left off Battenfield ). Yet, my criteria is going 6 innings for an extended period to be a solid starter (with the numbers). And, some maybe concerned about the innings limits on some guys like Morris; however, I do believe that the tribe have done some back field work after the season to get innings up that we do not know about. If you like at McK -- 83, 143, 90, none, 33 (Covid but LC work), 120, 191 (this is close to 30% of 143 5 years prior).

Cantillo was healthy until the last two years. He had abdonimal soreness in 21 and was rehabbing in August (thus would have gotten his innings in during fall work). Last year's shoulder soreness is more of a concern but didn't require injury. His innings 49, 111, Covid (but with Padres extended pool unlike McK), 13, 60. Thus, he probably could got 130ish this year (20% from 111) and then 160-170ish plus in 24. I can live with that. Thus, take him slow at the beginning of 2023 as they would any injury rehab and then see if he can be the next Morris (multi-inning guy at the end of the year in MLB). The encouraging thing before the injury was that he had 80-89 pitches in 5-6 innings for 5 starts straight. Shows that he was built up. IF he can put up his May numbers, he will climb quickly .135/.328 BA/OBP but probably unsustainable with .244 BAbip. In mid-June, he was throwing 90-91 at the beginning of the game but by the end was hitting 92 T 93 which he carried into the 5th and his last batter (coincides with working at 91-93 at MLB pipe). For comparison on the gun, Hunter started with 95/94 fastballs, so gun seems reasonable.

 

[sportscoach]

You can always have Morris and Cantillo piggyback off of each other to start the season and gradually build up innings kind of like they did last season with the big league starters... we really need those two stretched out for innings late in the season, so if they start in the minors, get stretched out, they can either start later or be bullpen arms, I would be okay with either idea...

 

[CDAV45]

The key with Bibee is to have him climb up to the top 100 lists this year so he is eligible for ROY next year in 2024 for that extra pick. Yet, I wouldn't be adverse to give some of the three a little work in September (close to 45 days and 50 innings pitched) to get their feet wet. And, if they take us late into the playoffs, it would be worth the lose of a pick.

And, I think we are going to get spoiled with our talented SP depth. I think you nailed the next group (see you left off Battenfield ). Yet, my criteria is going 6 innings for an extended period to be a solid starter (with the numbers). And, some maybe concerned about the innings limits on some guys like Morris; however, I do believe that the tribe have done some back field work after the season to get innings up that we do not know about. If you like at McK -- 83, 143, 90, none, 33 (Covid but LC work), 120, 191 (this is close to 30% of 143 5 years prior).

Cantillo was healthy until the last two years. He had abdonimal soreness in 21 and was rehabbing in August (thus would have gotten his innings in during fall work). Last year's shoulder soreness is more of a concern but didn't require injury. His innings 49, 111, Covid (but with Padres extended pool unlike McK), 13, 60. Thus, he probably could got 130ish this year (20% from 111) and then 160-170ish plus in 24. I can live with that. Thus, take him slow at the beginning of 2023 as they would any injury rehab and then see if he can be the next Morris (multi-inning guy at the end of the year in MLB). The encouraging thing before the injury was that he had 80-89 pitches in 5-6 innings for 5 starts straight. Shows that he was built up. IF he can put up his May numbers, he will climb quickly .135/.328 BA/OBP but probably unsustainable with .244 BAbip. In mid-June, he was throwing 90-91 at the beginning of the game but by the end was hitting 92 T 93 which he carried into the 5th and his last batter (coincides with working at 91-93 at MLB pipe). For comparison on the gun, Hunter started with 95/94 fastballs, so gun seems reasonable.

I'm trying to find out what's going on with Battenfield, but I never had him in the same tier as Espino, Williams, Bibee, Hankins or Cantillo. The ceiling just isn't there. Having said that, I still think he stands a better chance of being a successful ML SP than any of Pilkington, Curry, or Gaddis. I'm telling you, there is something with Battenfield that hasn't been made public. I don't know if there is an injury, an attitude issue or something else. It sure as hell isn't because he doesn't have the talent. He literally has as much or more talent than Quantrill IMO. Hitters can't square the ball up when he's on the mound. I'm sure whatever it may be it will be revealed in due time.

That whole "extra pick" debacle needs to go away. It was a stupid idea to begin with. Pretty much like the bigger bases and limited throws to 1B. I'm not opposed to change, but that shit is just dumb.

You mentioned something that I've been saying on this board for quite some time. These pitchers get more work in and log more innings than we can refer to on the normal stat lines. No, I'm not saying that Morris can throw 200 innings, but I promise you that he isn't limited to 100 IP either.

I thought Cantillo was hitting 95-97 frequently. There was a sizable uptick in his velo last season if I remember correctly.

 

[Criznit]

I would think Cantillo makes his debut next year and his spot on the 40 man makes that easier to happen. There is a pretty nice mix of pitching prospects who will be at AA and higher to start 23. Given that, coupled with extremely strong starts to their MILB seasons one or more of these guys could be given a shot by June-July. Think

1. Curry - if he doesn't break camp.
2. Cantillo - performance will escalate his MLB debut IMO.
3. Williams
4. Bibee - ask me again on May 1st though.. If he's not already called up.
5. Allen

Morris, Pilkington and Gaddis round out your rostered greenhorn/rookies. We should have 6ish or so guys to play doubleheaders, fill in etc. I know innings/pitch limits are of some concern to some of you, but with the amount of possibilities to fill out the bottom of the rotation, I'm not worried. Looks pretty good to me actually.

Really excited to see what Morris and Curry do in their starts/playing time.

Of course a trade would almost certainly change this landscape.

 

[CDAV45]

I would think Cantillo makes his debut next year and his spot on the 40 man makes that easier to happen. There is a pretty nice mix of pitching prospects who will be at AA and higher to start 23. Given that, coupled with extremely strong starts to their MILB seasons one or more of these guys could be given a shot by June-July. Think

1. Curry - if he doesn't break camp.
2. Cantillo - performance will escalate his MLB debut IMO.
3. Williams
4. Bibee - ask me again on May 1st though.. If he's not already called up.
5. Allen

Morris, Pilkington and Gaddis round out your rostered greenhorn/rookies. We should have 6ish or so guys to play doubleheaders, fill in etc. I know innings/pitch limits are of some concern to some of you, but with the amount of possibilities to fill out the bottom of the rotation, I'm not worried. Looks pretty good to me actually.

Really excited to see what Morris and Curry do in their starts/playing time.

Of course a trade would almost certainly change this landscape.

There were moments when Pilkington pitched really well, almost impressively last season. I think he'll be right behind Morris in the pecking order. My gut tells me that all of Curry, Gaddis and Allen are available in a trade. If we see Cantillo this year it will likely be in a BP role, but other than him being really effective in that role I don't see the need to push him into the ML rotation with so much depth. There's a lot of SP to sort through and it's not all in the minors. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

[daddywags]

There were moments when Pilkington pitched really well, almost impressively last season. I think he'll be right behind Morris in the pecking order. My gut tells me that all of Curry, Gaddis and Allen are available in a trade. If we see Cantillo this year it will likely be in a BP role, but other than him being really effective in that role I don't see the need to push him into the ML rotation with so much depth. There's a lot of SP to sort through and it's not all in the minors. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

I liked what I saw from Pilkington last year. If he can become a bit better with control of all his pitches he can be an effective 3-4 starter IMO.

 

[CDAV45]

I liked what I saw from Pilkington last year. If he can become a bit better with control of all his pitches he can be an effective 3-4 starter IMO.

100% agree. Thing is his FB is heavy and doesn't allow for a lot of hard contact. If he can harness his control even marginally better then he'll be a very good addition to Cleveland's rotation. You know who else is similar from the right side and didn't have control issues until this past season? That's right, my boy Peyton Battenfield. Neither are TOR SP for sure, but they might be able to effectively replace any of Quantrill, Civale and Plesac. It's going to get real interesting over the next year.

 

[daddywags]

100% agree. Thing is his FB is heavy and doesn't allow for a lot of hard contact. If he can harness his control even marginally better then he'll be a very good addition to Cleveland's rotation. You know who else is similar from the right side and didn't have control issues until this past season? That's right, my boy Peyton Battenfield. Neither are TOR SP for sure, but they might be able to effectively replace any of Quantrill, Civale and Plesac. It's going to get real interesting over the next year.

I've never seen Battenfield pitch, but I have read enough about him here to be interested. I hope a few of these guys in the pipeline get a chance to make an appearance in Cleveland this season.

 

[Gson]

I've never seen Battenfield pitch, but I have read enough about him here to be interested. I hope a few of these guys in the pipeline get a chance to make an appearance in Cleveland this season.

One or two as a visiting opponent would be a good thing.. perhaps..

 

[Tondo]

Some Guardians nuggets from FG chat:

Eric Longenhagen Chat: 12/16/23

Come talk prospects with Longenhagen after a big week of international prospect content.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Efrim: Hi Eric – When does the first team list go up? Any order you can let us know about?

Eric A Longenhagen: Next week. Brewers, Dodgers, White Sox, Guardians, Reds is the first batch

M: You mentioned in your international prospects write up that there were some under $2 mil prospects you added to the Board because they were personal favorites of yours….which guys particularly stand out in that category?

Eric A Longenhagen: Welbyn Francisca (gap), Kevin Ereu, Yoelin Cespedes, Reiner Lopez

Mat: Did the entirety of Will Benson’s 2022 change your evaluation on him at all? Seemed like he smashed AAA but never got any consistent playing time in the majors. What’s your projection for him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Working on that system now, will see if there’s been a mechanical adjustment that might firm up confidence in his bat.

 

[CDAV45]

I've never seen Battenfield pitch, but I have read enough about him here to be interested. I hope a few of these guys in the pipeline get a chance to make an appearance in Cleveland this season.

If you get a chance go watch him and don't listen to a thing GSon says. He had an off season last year after pitching superbly since being drafted. In his off year he still had a 3.63 ERA and a 1.269 WHIP. His K9 was down because his BB9 doubled. His H9 went up and his HR9 didn't move, and that's playing in Huntington Park. He basically lost his control and we were told that he was working on a couple of things mechanically. I'm not sure if that effected him and how badly if it so.

Look, I'm not telling you Battenfield is the 2nd coming of anything or that he should be in the ML rotation. I am saying that if he can right the ship and 2022 was an outlier then he could find himself back in the mix. If you look at his numbers and watched him pitch prior to 2022 you'd be high on this kid. There were a few games in 22 where it looked like he might be regaining his form so we'll see.