2023 NBA Draft

[Real Deal]

Oscar with another high rebounding game with 23pts, 18rebs, (9 off), 2stls and counting. Very active and live body... he can translate well in the NBA with constant hard work and screening then rolling. Work horse.

 

[adam81king]

I dont like Oscar in the NBA. Hes short and doesnt do anything besides eat space down low. Can he score against consistently bigger, longer and more athletic bigs in the NBA? Can he actually defend? If we're going for a limited college big, Id rather go with Armando Bacot from UNC. He's a few inches bigger, at least.

 

[JJ_PR]

We do have a pick in the second round, correct? Either way, you can always buy one too.

 

[JJ_PR]

@ChicagoCavFan had a thread in that draft pounding the table for Draymond.

Three major hurdles for Green at the draft was his questionable shooting range, baby fat as a senior prospect, and ahem... personality.

To his credit, Green eliminated the first two issues through hard work. There was still a belief that Harrison Barnes would be the more valuable forward until about halfway through their second year on the Warriors.

The thing that hurt the most was that the Cavs had three picks in his draft range, & decided to trade them all for... Tyler Zeller! We could've had Jae Crowder, Draymond Green, Khris Middleton, among other solid prospects available with those picks.

Dallas dropped the ball as well drafting Jared Cunningham & Bernard James.

 

[Futuredome]

Miller has gigantic upside. A 6”9 athletic long wing with those ball skills, frame and shooting is very very valuable in todays nba game. If his character checks out he is going top 3 or top 5. He could end up being a top 10 to 15 player ( maybe even higher) in 4 years if he stays healthy and is dedicated to his craft.Any gm who is in the lottery is gonna have to think long and hard about passing after the top 2 guys Victor and Scoot are gone .

I don't agree. He is skill challenged. I see a high floor but a low ceiling. The floor will push him up. But your still tanking after taking him looking for the guy.

 

[adam81king]

I don't agree. He is skill challenged. I see a high floor but a low ceiling. The floor will push him up. But your still tanking after taking him looking for the guy.

Wait. You think Brandon Miller is "skill challenged"?!?!

 

[ChicagoCavFan]

@ChicagoCavFan had a thread in that draft pounding the table for Draymond.

Three major hurdles for Green at the draft was his questionable shooting range, baby fat as a senior prospect, and ahem... personality.

To his credit, Green eliminated the first two issues through hard work. There was still a belief that Harrison Barnes would be the more valuable forward until about halfway through their second year on the Warriors.

I'll never forget watching MSU play and Dray doing Draymond things, and brought him up in some thread. I never looked at what year he was planning to enter draft, just was impressed and had a feeling he would translate to the NBA. Took a bit of mild heat from some, as he wasn't even draft eligible. I thought it was destined with Dan's affinity for all things MSU.

Over the years, we all get some right, and get some wrong. For instance, Luka Garza - I felt his might translate as well. He's averaging 9 mins a game, 7 points and 37% from 3. It is only his 2nd season though.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Here's to date stats on all these guys. Will marginally change if any make a really deep run.....but this is generally the tier they all land in. I am lazy and did not update the consensus mock ranks. I'll do that when we hit prime draft season.

For Cavs purposes.....the wing options are especially ugly in the 2nd round. Oof. Hopefully are willing and can buy a 1st. Handful of guys there that I think could help us.....a lot less sure of realistic 2nd round guys who can do that.

Round 1

Round 2

 

[Smooth]

Julian Strawther seems like one of those upper classmen that gets drafted in high-mid round 2, comes in early knocking down shots, slowly gets more time and slowly becomes a 10-year rotational bench player.. Am I wrong?

Podziemski is another interesting guy for the Cavs but seems he might be out of reach..

Tristan Vukcevic intrigues me if the Cavs decide to go draft and stash with their pick again and preserve some roster space but have a feeling he goes higher than where they'll pick in the 2nd..

Don't look now @I'mWithDan: Givony and Kevin O'Connor both have Hendricks as a lottery pick..

Two Q's for you Dan:

Where does Schierman rank in your model?
Why is the model down on Keyontae Johnson? Is it age? His size + pts + rebounds + stls + 3P% + FG% is attractive as a Cavs fan in need of some size and shooting on the wing//

 

[I'mWithDan]

Julian Strawther seems like one of those upper classmen that gets drafted in high-mid round 2, comes in early knocking down shots, slowly gets more time and slowly becomes a 10-year rotational bench player.. Am I wrong?

Strawther is the one guy I would circle too. If he measures well, he's the one realistic player I'd really be trying to manuever for. Ditto for Jalen Bridges. Almost the exact same profile. Upperclassman that can step in and is physically ready to contribute.

Where does Schierman rank in your model?

I'll add him next round. I'll also post the PSA to add any other requests (for you or anyone else in the thread too). I'll pull down any additions over the next few days and add them.

Why is the model down on Keyontae Johnson? Is it age? His size + pts + rebounds + stls + 3P% + FG% is attractive as a Cavs fan in need of some size and shooting on the wing//

It isn't age. There is an age component but I harp on this constantly that old guys succeed quite often. Much more than any age truthers would like to admit.

With Johnson, he does 3 things in combination that my model doesn't like.....he's an average scorer at volume (efficiency wise), he turns it over and he fouls. Those are 3 large negative inputs someone needs to overcome.

The argument for taking a chance on him is physical tools and a belief he will be used very differently at the NBA level, thus reducing the negative inputs that drag down his profile. We are so desperate on the wing, any flier that has the requisite athletic profile is worth a shot at this point.

 

[MD13]

Here's to date stats on all these guys. Will marginally change if any make a really deep run.....but this is generally the tier they all land in. I am lazy and did not update the consensus mock ranks. I'll do that when we hit prime draft season.

For Cavs purposes.....the wing options are especially ugly in the 2nd round. Oof. Hopefully are willing and can buy a 1st. Handful of guys there that I think could help us.....a lot less sure of realistic 2nd round guys who can do that.

Round 1

Round 2

Really interesting stuff... based on your model, this seems like the weakest draft in a while? Is that right? Feels like we usually see a lot more guys overperforming in the lottery to mid first area.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Really interesting stuff... based on your model, this seems like the weakest draft in a while? Is that right? Feels like we usually see a lot more guys overperforming in the lottery to mid first area.

Yes. It is a pretty bad one. I need to double check all the overtime / g league guys….but really just not the typical pool of over performers in years past.

It will be an interesting year to see how the model performs, as that median pool is smaller. Certainly nowhere near last year for example. Even with a smaller pool, I will be interested to see if the median trend continues, where guys above that line just continually make up a vast majority of the best players in a given draft.

It wouldn’t shock me if this is a draft the Cavs trade out of. Maybe try to take our 2nd and trade it for one in 2024 that we think might be in the first 10 picks of the round.

 

[BimboColesHair]

I'll add him next round. I'll also post the PSA to add any other requests (for you or anyone else in the thread too). I'll pull down any additions over the next few days and add them.

Kobe Brown

 

[MD13]

Yes. It is a pretty bad one. I need to double check all the overtime / g league guys….but really just not the typical pool of over performers in years past.

It will be an interesting year to see how the model performs, as that median pool is smaller. Certainly nowhere near last year for example. Even with a smaller pool, I will be interested to see if the median trend continues, where guys above that line just continually make up a vast majority of the best players in a given draft.

It wouldn’t shock me if this is a draft the Cavs trade out of. Maybe try to take our 2nd and trade it for one in 2024 that we think might be in the first 10 picks of the round.

I'll disagree with you on that, just because the 2024 draft is apparently the worst draft in 20 years or so. Apparently this class of high school players is so bad that they routinely get outplayed by the top guys in younger classes. Which sucks since that's the only 1st round pick we have in a while, but oh well.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I'll disagree with you on that, just because the 2024 draft is apparently the worst draft in 20 years or so. Apparently this class of high school players is so bad that they routinely get outplayed by the top guys in younger classes. Which sucks since that's the only 1st round pick we have in a while, but oh well.

Honestly, so much changes. I (in my personal view) would believe this to be about as bad of a draft as I could imagine. I’ll pull the concrete numbers but it is (ballpark) half the number of above median players you would expect. And that smaller pool most negatively affects picks later in the draft.

Even if the prevailing notion (now) is that the 2024 draft may be bad, I already know this one is bad. So if I can trade an asset I believe to be worth very little for a chance at a better one, I would punt 12 months on the lottery ticket.