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Two teams moving in opposite directions collide for a weekend series in Cleveland as the Guardians, who are 12-22 after getting off to a 9-6 start, take on the Cardinals, who started 10-24 but are 13-5 since. The Cardinals are similar to the White Sox, who started 7-21 but have since gone 14-9.
Overall these teams have similar records; 21-28 for the Guardians, 23-29 for the Cardinals, and both are 4.5 games out of first in their divisions. But they are clearly moving in opposite directions.
The Cardinals are all about the bats - they rank 8th in runs per game and batting average, 4th in on-base percentage, 5th in slugging percentage and home runs, and 6th in isolated power. The Guardians are 29th or 30th in all those categories.
However, the Cardinals hit much better at home, averaging 5.8 runs per game against 4.3 on the road. They also hit lefties better than righties; .804 OPS versus .769. So the fact that they will be on the road and facing three right-handed starters will hopefully take some of the sting out of their bats.
Nevertheless, this lineup will really test the Guardians’ pitching staff. The Cardinals are averaging an outstanding 6.1 runs per game this month after averaging just 4.1 in April. They are the second highest scoring team the majors in May.
Paul Goldschmidt, the reigning MVP of the National Leauge, is hitting .292/.917. SS Tommy Edman is hitting .284/.819 while Nolan Arenado, who was 3rd in the MVP balloting last year, is off to a slow start at .264/.746. His OPS is 130 points below his career average. Arenado has 10 Gold Gloves at third base.
DH Nolan Gorman has a line of .297/1.002 with an on-base percentage of .389. He’s a 23-year-old left-handed hitter who is hitting .339/1.172 in May. As a team the Cardinals have 40 home runs in 22 games in May.
The Cardinals’ pitchers allow a lot of base runners, ranking 27th in WHIP (23rd in walks per game, 28th in hits). Despite all those base runners their team ERA ranks 22th. Opponents are hitting just .214 with two outs and RISP. It’s not hard to get on base against them but it’s hard to get the runners in.
As a team they're 22nd in ERA but 16th in FIP, suggesting their defense isn’t that great. Defensively they’re 21st in zone rating but 29th in BABIP, so it appears they’ve been somewhat unlucky as well as being slower than average in the field. Since the Guardians put the ball in play a lot this very low BABIP ranking could result in a few more hits than usual. But they still need to either hit home runs or hit with RISP, and they've done neither this season.
The Guardians will be facing lefties Friday and Sunday. Tanner Bibee goes against Matt Liberatore, 23, tonight. Liberatore has started one game for the Cardinals this year, shutting out Milwaukee on three hits in five innings. He’s a former 16th overall pick by Tampa Bay. He pitched in nine games as a rookie last year with an ERA of 5.97 and started in AAA this year.
In his six innings of work this year (including a relief appearance) Liberatore throws 60% fastballs at 95.5 mph. He throws 34% curves so he is basically a two-pitch pitcher with a fastball/curve mix similar to James Karinchak.
Bibee has started five games since being brought up. He just turned 24 so this is a battle of young starters, each with fewer than 10 career starts. Bibee has limited opponents to 1-2 runs in four of his five starts and has a nice 3.18 ERA. One thing to watch is that his BAA’s the first three times through the batting order are .125, .286, and .409. Once hitters see his pitches they have a lot more success. Obviously the Cardinals have never faced him.
The Guardians are 10-14 at home. They’re hitting an abysmal .218 with 12 home runs in 24 games at the Prog. They are averaging an embarrassing 2.75 runs per game at home. This simply has to stop - now. The cold weather and early season excuses are no longer in play.
After this series five of the next six are against teams with winning records and the other is in San Diego against the 23-27 Padres. You could argue that the Cardinals are also a winning team since they’ve won 13 of 18. So it’s pretty much make or break over the next 23 games ending June 18. This stretch of 23 games against strong opponents, including four against the Twins in Minnesota, will probably determine the course of the season. The Guardians could be out of it in three weeks (or less) if they don’t find a way to start scoring runs, and fast. Or they could right the ship and be right in the thick of it.
But no question the time is running out. The argument that "they had the same record at this point last season" is also no longer valid. These next 3-4 weeks will probably determine what they do at the trade deadline. If it goes badly we might be seeing Shane Bieber's last few starts in a Guardians' uniform.
Overall these teams have similar records; 21-28 for the Guardians, 23-29 for the Cardinals, and both are 4.5 games out of first in their divisions. But they are clearly moving in opposite directions.
The Cardinals are all about the bats - they rank 8th in runs per game and batting average, 4th in on-base percentage, 5th in slugging percentage and home runs, and 6th in isolated power. The Guardians are 29th or 30th in all those categories.
However, the Cardinals hit much better at home, averaging 5.8 runs per game against 4.3 on the road. They also hit lefties better than righties; .804 OPS versus .769. So the fact that they will be on the road and facing three right-handed starters will hopefully take some of the sting out of their bats.
Nevertheless, this lineup will really test the Guardians’ pitching staff. The Cardinals are averaging an outstanding 6.1 runs per game this month after averaging just 4.1 in April. They are the second highest scoring team the majors in May.
Paul Goldschmidt, the reigning MVP of the National Leauge, is hitting .292/.917. SS Tommy Edman is hitting .284/.819 while Nolan Arenado, who was 3rd in the MVP balloting last year, is off to a slow start at .264/.746. His OPS is 130 points below his career average. Arenado has 10 Gold Gloves at third base.
DH Nolan Gorman has a line of .297/1.002 with an on-base percentage of .389. He’s a 23-year-old left-handed hitter who is hitting .339/1.172 in May. As a team the Cardinals have 40 home runs in 22 games in May.
The Cardinals’ pitchers allow a lot of base runners, ranking 27th in WHIP (23rd in walks per game, 28th in hits). Despite all those base runners their team ERA ranks 22th. Opponents are hitting just .214 with two outs and RISP. It’s not hard to get on base against them but it’s hard to get the runners in.
As a team they're 22nd in ERA but 16th in FIP, suggesting their defense isn’t that great. Defensively they’re 21st in zone rating but 29th in BABIP, so it appears they’ve been somewhat unlucky as well as being slower than average in the field. Since the Guardians put the ball in play a lot this very low BABIP ranking could result in a few more hits than usual. But they still need to either hit home runs or hit with RISP, and they've done neither this season.
The Guardians will be facing lefties Friday and Sunday. Tanner Bibee goes against Matt Liberatore, 23, tonight. Liberatore has started one game for the Cardinals this year, shutting out Milwaukee on three hits in five innings. He’s a former 16th overall pick by Tampa Bay. He pitched in nine games as a rookie last year with an ERA of 5.97 and started in AAA this year.
In his six innings of work this year (including a relief appearance) Liberatore throws 60% fastballs at 95.5 mph. He throws 34% curves so he is basically a two-pitch pitcher with a fastball/curve mix similar to James Karinchak.
Bibee has started five games since being brought up. He just turned 24 so this is a battle of young starters, each with fewer than 10 career starts. Bibee has limited opponents to 1-2 runs in four of his five starts and has a nice 3.18 ERA. One thing to watch is that his BAA’s the first three times through the batting order are .125, .286, and .409. Once hitters see his pitches they have a lot more success. Obviously the Cardinals have never faced him.
The Guardians are 10-14 at home. They’re hitting an abysmal .218 with 12 home runs in 24 games at the Prog. They are averaging an embarrassing 2.75 runs per game at home. This simply has to stop - now. The cold weather and early season excuses are no longer in play.
After this series five of the next six are against teams with winning records and the other is in San Diego against the 23-27 Padres. You could argue that the Cardinals are also a winning team since they’ve won 13 of 18. So it’s pretty much make or break over the next 23 games ending June 18. This stretch of 23 games against strong opponents, including four against the Twins in Minnesota, will probably determine the course of the season. The Guardians could be out of it in three weeks (or less) if they don’t find a way to start scoring runs, and fast. Or they could right the ship and be right in the thick of it.
But no question the time is running out. The argument that "they had the same record at this point last season" is also no longer valid. These next 3-4 weeks will probably determine what they do at the trade deadline. If it goes badly we might be seeing Shane Bieber's last few starts in a Guardians' uniform.
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