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2023 Season | Series #19 | Guardians @ Twins | June 1-4, 2023

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Wham with the Right Hand

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After winning back-to-back series against the Cardinals and Orioles the rejuvenated Guardians head to the Twin Cities for a four-game set against the division leading Twins. A sweep would put the Guardians in first place as they trail the Twins by 3.5 games. A Twins' sweep will surely have fans screaming to tear it all down. The Guardians finished the month of May with a 12-15 record.

The Twins are 28-26, having played .500 ball since starting 12-10. They are 10-6 against the weak A.L. Central and .500 or below against the East, West, and National League. By all indications they are a mediocre team. At the moment they have lost 8 of their last 13.
Another way to look at the Twins; they are 6-1 against the pitiful Kansas City Royals (17-39) and 22-25 against the rest of baseball.

The Guardians won a series from the Twins in Cleveland about a month ago, two games to one. The cumulative score was 6-5 in favor of the Guardians, so pitching dominated. The Twins hit .130/.455 for the series. Three of their five runs came on solo homers, two by Max Kepler. They had a 25% strikeout rate.

The Twins are a good offensive team at home, ranking 9th in runs per game and on-base percentage, and 6th in home runs per game. The are 5th in walks per game at home and last in strikeouts per game at just under 10. They are a three true outcome team at home; lots of walks, home runs, and strikeouts. They average 4.8 runs per game at home as opposed to 4.3 on the road. They hit right-handed pitching better than lefties.

Joey Gallo has their highest OPS at Target Field (.919). He’s batting only .222, so he’s a mistake hitter. Of his 11 home runs, 10 are against RHP’s. However, he has only 2 hits in his last 20 AB’s and was 0-for-7 with 4 K’s against the Guardians in Cleveland.

Alex Kirilloff, another lefty, is hitting .270/.873 at home. Jorge Polanco is hitting .290/.855 and Byron Buxton has 18 RBI’s in 26 games at home. Buxton and Gallo have hit 13 of the Twins’ 40 home runs at Target.

The Twins have 10 stolen bases in 28 home games so they tend to wait for the big hit.
The Twins’ strong point this season has been their pitching, particularly their starters. As a team they rank 8th in ERA at home, 8th in WHIP, and 3rd in strikeouts. They also rank 8th in bullpen ERA. The four starters for the Twins this weekend have ERA’s of 4.11, 2.68, 1.94, and 2.77. Talk about impressive!

The Guardians scraped together 6 runs in 3 games last month in Cleveland, but they are swinging the bats better the last week, so we’ll see if they can continue putting 4-5 runs on the board. The Guardians hit .178 against Twins pitching in that series.

Tanner Bibee gets the start tonight. Bibee has been outstanding with a 2.88 ERA. He has allowed 1 or 2 runs in five of his six starts. His last start was his best as he went 6 shutout innings, allowing 2 hits and striking out 9. He did not face the Twins in the first series.

Pablo Lopez, a 27-year-old right-hander who came over from the Marlins in the Luis Arraez deal, starts for the Twins. In his fifth full season Lopez is 31-34 with a 3.96 career ERA. This year he is right there at 3-3, 4.11. After his first five starts he had a 1.73 ERA but in his last seven starts it’s 5.67. In his last three starts he’s given up 11 runs in 16.1 innings (6.06).
Lopez has great stuff (81 K’s in 66 innings) but he’s allowed five home runs in his last three starts. He did not face the Guardians last month.

The rest of the series matchups are Civale vs. Bailey Ober (2.68 ERA), Allen vs. Sonny Gray (1.94 ERA), and Quantrill vs. Joe Ryan (2.77 ERA). It appears to me as though the Twins have the advantage in starting pitching every game except possibly tonight, and that’s based on the recent performances of Bibee and Lopez.

My guess is we’ll see a few more runs than last time. The Twins hit better at home and the Guardians are starting to put bats on baseballs. Civale will be making his first start in nearly two months while Quantrill has given up 14 runs in his last two starts.

By the way, Luis Arraez is hitting .381 with a .438 OBP for the Marlins. He’s on pace to be a 6.6 WAR player this year. Nobody else is hitting higher than .347.
 
I am assuming if Civale is coming up from Rehab and Gaddis is going to pen that the most logical move is Curry to AAA. Shame with a 2.45 ERA and 3.15 FIP, I don't think he has done anything to warrant a demotion (but spots will be tight - especially for McK coming back this series or maybe 1 more start if they just want innings (and as AAA has no indoor pens probably for him to have worked in the cage after game was delayed). Karinchak of course is on the potential list but his May numbers are 2.08 ERA (a bit lucky with high walk rate 10 per 9 but has only had 3 hits against him but 2 are HRs). Don't know if it is basically once he is hittable/walkable things become more high leverage as guys get on, but his walks per 9 and BAA goes up as the leverage goes up (.080/.179/.231 BAA for low/med/high). But, if they are sticking with Rosario, they will probably stick with Karinchak (like he has even moved down that far in the BP peaking order of things). Yet, if McK goes in rotation for Quant, does Quant deserve to bump Karinchak or Hentges from pen? Because why tell Gaddis that he is going to the pen for just a few days before demoting him if he is a starter at AAA??? Will be interesting the moves.
 
I am assuming if Civale is coming up from Rehab and Gaddis is going to pen that the most logical move is Curry to AAA. Shame with a 2.45 ERA and 3.15 FIP, I don't think he has done anything to warrant a demotion (but spots will be tight - especially for McK coming back this series or maybe 1 more start if they just want innings (and as AAA has no indoor pens probably for him to have worked in the cage after game was delayed). Karinchak of course is on the potential list but his May numbers are 2.08 ERA (a bit lucky with high walk rate 10 per 9 but has only had 3 hits against him but 2 are HRs). Don't know if it is basically once he is hittable/walkable things become more high leverage as guys get on, but his walks per 9 and BAA goes up as the leverage goes up (.080/.179/.231 BAA for low/med/high). But, if they are sticking with Rosario, they will probably stick with Karinchak (like he has even moved down that far in the BP peaking order of things). Yet, if McK goes in rotation for Quant, does Quant deserve to bump Karinchak or Hentges from pen? Because why tell Gaddis that he is going to the pen for just a few days before demoting him if he is a starter at AAA??? Will be interesting the moves.

Gaddis is the one going down... They have no reason to move down Curry since he has been very good in the role he is in. Why send him down? If it's anyone other than Gaddis, it would be Karinchak...
 
[Karinchak's walks per 9 and BAA goes up as the leverage goes up (.080/.179/.231 BAA for low/med/high).
Great observation. IMO De Los Santos has earned the chance to be the setup guy along with Stephan. Karinchak does better in low leverage situations so let's keep him there. Bring him in to start the 6th or 7th with the bases empty and save DLS for the higher leverage spots, along with Hentges and Stephan.
 
Big four-game series at Minnesota. Or it could be big if either team sweeps, which I think is unlikely.

If they split then the Guardians are still 3.5 games out with over 100 to play. If either team wins 3-1 then the Guards are either 1.5 or 5.5 games out - still in the hunt. If the Guards sweep they are in first place and have won 6 of 7 from the Twins. If the Twins sweep they are up by 7.5 games and the momentum the Guardians achieved by winning back-to-back series against the Cardinals and Twins will be dead.

With 22 runs in the last three games the Guardians are showing definite signs of the bats waking up. Allen and Bibee have provided a huge lift to the pitching staff after the injuries to McKenzie and Civale in addition to Plesac being sent down. This weekend will be a great test of whether things are finally turning around. The Twins' starters have the 3rd lowest ERA in baseball so the Guardian hitters will be challenged.
 
Fangraphs has the Twins ranked 4th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching at home so Bibee, Civale, and Quantrill will be in for a huge test. Not to mention the bullpen with the exception of Hentges.
 
The Athletic has a column on this series. Here is the summary from the Twins' writer:

While the Twins finally have starting pitching, a variety of issues are preventing them from running away with the division at a time when the opening is significant. These teams’ offensive issues are incomparable. Cleveland’s woes are much worse. But the Twins are sitting directly in the middle of the majors in runs scored with an underperforming offense that hasn’t hit its stride and is maddeningly inconsistent. The team’s bases-loaded struggles would qualify as legendary if they continue. The defense is porous and the bullpen has been forced into action too often, which has led to losing too many winnable games.

What continues to be shocking is that Carlos Correa has yet to have a hot streak and the offense has really underperformed. Entering Wednesday, they’d scored three or fewer runs in 47 percent of their games, which means they’re playing in way too many competitive contests. Playing in 3-1 games every day can wear a team down because you’re never too far out of it to use good relievers or you’re trying to maintain a tight lead.

Zack Meisel: Not to be that guy, but the Guardians have scored three runs or fewer in 58 percent of their games and, well, they’re on pace to match the major-league record for one-run games...

More than anything, I think the Guardians will be a fascinating team to monitor as the trade deadline approaches. I could see them trading Shane Bieber, regardless of their standing. I could see them targeting hitters with multiple years of control, regardless of their standing. Maybe those two things overlap.


I'm wondering whether the fact that Gimenez is starting to hit (5 hits in the last two games) and we're getting at least some contribution from right field recently (both Arias and Brennan) and even catcher, plus Naylor is on a roll will make managment think again about trading Bieber in mid-season. Less need to add to the offense.

Quantrill struggling recently may also play into it.

Both the Twins and Guardians have been playing a ton of close games, but they rank 23rd and 24th in bullpen innings pitched, so wearing down the bullpen has not been an issue so far.
 
Let's go out there and grab this division!
 
Must win series. The beating of the incredible, amazing Orioles brought me back from the dead.
 
Cal pitching for his spot.
Remember, McK is already lined up for his spot on Sun. And, even though McK had a rain shorten start, he did get work in pen after rain to get to his 85 target. With off day on Monday, you can use pen if McK isn’t as sharp In first game back.
 

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