- Joined
- Oct 3, 2019
- Messages
- 9,556
- Reaction score
- 27,313
- Points
- 135
After winning back-to-back series against the Cardinals and Orioles the rejuvenated Guardians head to the Twin Cities for a four-game set against the division leading Twins. A sweep would put the Guardians in first place as they trail the Twins by 3.5 games. A Twins' sweep will surely have fans screaming to tear it all down. The Guardians finished the month of May with a 12-15 record.
The Twins are 28-26, having played .500 ball since starting 12-10. They are 10-6 against the weak A.L. Central and .500 or below against the East, West, and National League. By all indications they are a mediocre team. At the moment they have lost 8 of their last 13.
Another way to look at the Twins; they are 6-1 against the pitiful Kansas City Royals (17-39) and 22-25 against the rest of baseball.
The Guardians won a series from the Twins in Cleveland about a month ago, two games to one. The cumulative score was 6-5 in favor of the Guardians, so pitching dominated. The Twins hit .130/.455 for the series. Three of their five runs came on solo homers, two by Max Kepler. They had a 25% strikeout rate.
The Twins are a good offensive team at home, ranking 9th in runs per game and on-base percentage, and 6th in home runs per game. The are 5th in walks per game at home and last in strikeouts per game at just under 10. They are a three true outcome team at home; lots of walks, home runs, and strikeouts. They average 4.8 runs per game at home as opposed to 4.3 on the road. They hit right-handed pitching better than lefties.
Joey Gallo has their highest OPS at Target Field (.919). He’s batting only .222, so he’s a mistake hitter. Of his 11 home runs, 10 are against RHP’s. However, he has only 2 hits in his last 20 AB’s and was 0-for-7 with 4 K’s against the Guardians in Cleveland.
Alex Kirilloff, another lefty, is hitting .270/.873 at home. Jorge Polanco is hitting .290/.855 and Byron Buxton has 18 RBI’s in 26 games at home. Buxton and Gallo have hit 13 of the Twins’ 40 home runs at Target.
The Twins have 10 stolen bases in 28 home games so they tend to wait for the big hit.
The Twins’ strong point this season has been their pitching, particularly their starters. As a team they rank 8th in ERA at home, 8th in WHIP, and 3rd in strikeouts. They also rank 8th in bullpen ERA. The four starters for the Twins this weekend have ERA’s of 4.11, 2.68, 1.94, and 2.77. Talk about impressive!
The Guardians scraped together 6 runs in 3 games last month in Cleveland, but they are swinging the bats better the last week, so we’ll see if they can continue putting 4-5 runs on the board. The Guardians hit .178 against Twins pitching in that series.
Tanner Bibee gets the start tonight. Bibee has been outstanding with a 2.88 ERA. He has allowed 1 or 2 runs in five of his six starts. His last start was his best as he went 6 shutout innings, allowing 2 hits and striking out 9. He did not face the Twins in the first series.
Pablo Lopez, a 27-year-old right-hander who came over from the Marlins in the Luis Arraez deal, starts for the Twins. In his fifth full season Lopez is 31-34 with a 3.96 career ERA. This year he is right there at 3-3, 4.11. After his first five starts he had a 1.73 ERA but in his last seven starts it’s 5.67. In his last three starts he’s given up 11 runs in 16.1 innings (6.06).
Lopez has great stuff (81 K’s in 66 innings) but he’s allowed five home runs in his last three starts. He did not face the Guardians last month.
The rest of the series matchups are Civale vs. Bailey Ober (2.68 ERA), Allen vs. Sonny Gray (1.94 ERA), and Quantrill vs. Joe Ryan (2.77 ERA). It appears to me as though the Twins have the advantage in starting pitching every game except possibly tonight, and that’s based on the recent performances of Bibee and Lopez.
My guess is we’ll see a few more runs than last time. The Twins hit better at home and the Guardians are starting to put bats on baseballs. Civale will be making his first start in nearly two months while Quantrill has given up 14 runs in his last two starts.
By the way, Luis Arraez is hitting .381 with a .438 OBP for the Marlins. He’s on pace to be a 6.6 WAR player this year. Nobody else is hitting higher than .347.
The Twins are 28-26, having played .500 ball since starting 12-10. They are 10-6 against the weak A.L. Central and .500 or below against the East, West, and National League. By all indications they are a mediocre team. At the moment they have lost 8 of their last 13.
Another way to look at the Twins; they are 6-1 against the pitiful Kansas City Royals (17-39) and 22-25 against the rest of baseball.
The Guardians won a series from the Twins in Cleveland about a month ago, two games to one. The cumulative score was 6-5 in favor of the Guardians, so pitching dominated. The Twins hit .130/.455 for the series. Three of their five runs came on solo homers, two by Max Kepler. They had a 25% strikeout rate.
The Twins are a good offensive team at home, ranking 9th in runs per game and on-base percentage, and 6th in home runs per game. The are 5th in walks per game at home and last in strikeouts per game at just under 10. They are a three true outcome team at home; lots of walks, home runs, and strikeouts. They average 4.8 runs per game at home as opposed to 4.3 on the road. They hit right-handed pitching better than lefties.
Joey Gallo has their highest OPS at Target Field (.919). He’s batting only .222, so he’s a mistake hitter. Of his 11 home runs, 10 are against RHP’s. However, he has only 2 hits in his last 20 AB’s and was 0-for-7 with 4 K’s against the Guardians in Cleveland.
Alex Kirilloff, another lefty, is hitting .270/.873 at home. Jorge Polanco is hitting .290/.855 and Byron Buxton has 18 RBI’s in 26 games at home. Buxton and Gallo have hit 13 of the Twins’ 40 home runs at Target.
The Twins have 10 stolen bases in 28 home games so they tend to wait for the big hit.
The Twins’ strong point this season has been their pitching, particularly their starters. As a team they rank 8th in ERA at home, 8th in WHIP, and 3rd in strikeouts. They also rank 8th in bullpen ERA. The four starters for the Twins this weekend have ERA’s of 4.11, 2.68, 1.94, and 2.77. Talk about impressive!
The Guardians scraped together 6 runs in 3 games last month in Cleveland, but they are swinging the bats better the last week, so we’ll see if they can continue putting 4-5 runs on the board. The Guardians hit .178 against Twins pitching in that series.
Tanner Bibee gets the start tonight. Bibee has been outstanding with a 2.88 ERA. He has allowed 1 or 2 runs in five of his six starts. His last start was his best as he went 6 shutout innings, allowing 2 hits and striking out 9. He did not face the Twins in the first series.
Pablo Lopez, a 27-year-old right-hander who came over from the Marlins in the Luis Arraez deal, starts for the Twins. In his fifth full season Lopez is 31-34 with a 3.96 career ERA. This year he is right there at 3-3, 4.11. After his first five starts he had a 1.73 ERA but in his last seven starts it’s 5.67. In his last three starts he’s given up 11 runs in 16.1 innings (6.06).
Lopez has great stuff (81 K’s in 66 innings) but he’s allowed five home runs in his last three starts. He did not face the Guardians last month.
The rest of the series matchups are Civale vs. Bailey Ober (2.68 ERA), Allen vs. Sonny Gray (1.94 ERA), and Quantrill vs. Joe Ryan (2.77 ERA). It appears to me as though the Twins have the advantage in starting pitching every game except possibly tonight, and that’s based on the recent performances of Bibee and Lopez.
My guess is we’ll see a few more runs than last time. The Twins hit better at home and the Guardians are starting to put bats on baseballs. Civale will be making his first start in nearly two months while Quantrill has given up 14 runs in his last two starts.
By the way, Luis Arraez is hitting .381 with a .438 OBP for the Marlins. He’s on pace to be a 6.6 WAR player this year. Nobody else is hitting higher than .347.