I agree that football lists star rankings are more accurate that baseball (as football and basketball players jump right in and play to prove their worth -- while baseball players need at least 2-3 years to break out). Yet, you also forget that part of why they are more accurate is the ranking are somewhat based on the actual football recruiting process. When a recruiting service sees the Georgia(s), Ohio State and others go after a recruit hard, they bump them up the rankings. If they see none of the top programs going after a kid (based on the summer camp analysis), the kid falls in the rankings. So, the football rankings are also based on many college recruiters providing their input (based on offers - and the timing of offers) where baseball that only happens senior year in HS (other than USA team inviting best of the best to tryout for national teams) and thus what I say that those rankings become sticky 2-3 years down the line (for these top 30 lists) and become outdated (where top guys stay towards top longer than a guy like Kwan can shoot up the list and only FG and one other service had him in the top 5 that year he broke out).
And, just look at the Rule 5 lists, you got guys selected who are way down some lists and taken over 10-20 type kids. Some of that is due to how close a kid is to making the majors. Other reason is organization insights. Most of us thought Nikhazy and Webb would both be picked being 24 and 27 in MLB Pipeline. Fangraph has Nikhazy at 33 and didn't list Webb. Yet, our insider had Nikhazy as 5th best and Webb 10th best pitching prospect (not inj like Espino and Campbell) around midseason. Now, no list (or even a GM) is ever going to be accurate. But, just saying, one services listing doesn't have insights that GMs have.
You underestimate the amount of contact several of the folks who do the baseball rankings have with the actual team evaluaters..
A few other thoughts...
1) I'm not as low on my opinion of Williams as some suggest. My sole interest is how a youngster like him, already being depended upon to produce for the present team WILL produce in the here and now. What he turns into two or three years from now doesn't matter for 2025. Williams may turn into a bona fide #2 down the road, and IMO that's a reasonable projection...but we NEED a #2 now.
Randy Johnson always had potential, but he couldn't hit the broadside of a barn until his sixth year in MLB when he became the Big Unit. He wasn't worth even 3 fWAR until his fifth year.
That kind of career trajectory won't do much for the Guardians, because he won't be in Cleveland.
2) When looking at a pitching prospect, you have to realize that 80% of even the best ones fail to produce much. Much of that is due to health issues, but outside of those the biggest red flag is lack of control and command. 98 MPH either right down the pipe or a foot off the plate is worthless.
Some high expectations on this board for Cantillo and Nikhazy, neither of which have shown control and command.
3) When looking at a hitting prospect, you have to realize that 70% of even the best ones fail. The biggest red flag is the inability to make consistent contact, in or out of the zone. If that is compounded by high chase rates, the red flag gets bigger. If that occurs at the lowest levels of MiLB, the red flag is the size of the Goodyear blimp.
Someone give us a list of successful MLB hitters who K'd a third of the time in A ball. Thats what we got for Eli Morgan.
4) Look at the SPs who have come up and had success in Cleveland....like...
Kluber
Carrasco
Clevinger
Bieber
Civale
Plesac
Bibee
Look at their MiLB walk rates. Look at their command scouting ratings.
Look at the few Guardians position players who have come up and produced fairly early in their careers, like...
Jose
Lindor
Nails
Kwan
Look at their MiLB K rates, and look at their hit tool ratings.
( We well know what happened to the big boys with high K rates and low hit tool ratings.)
In both cases, these are what the Guardians are focusing on in young player acquisition.
The good news is that we now (finally) have three position players with real pop who also make consistent contact in Manzardo, Delauter, and Kayfus.
5) Lots of shade thrown towards those that thought very little of Valera, for what should have been obvious reasons, once you looked past the mirage of power that mesmerizes so many fans. Apparently every GM in baseball agrees with the Jeremiahs.
