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The Oklahoma City Thunder bring their 30-5 record to town for the first of two games in an eight-day period between the two best records in the NBA. The Thunder have won 15 in a row if you don’t count the loss to Milwaukee in the finals of the NBA Cup. They are 13-3 on the road and 11-0 against the East.
The Cavs are 31-4 and 10-0 against the West, so something has to give. According to two schedule ranking websites the Cavs have played the second easiest schedule while the Thunder have played either the 4th hardest or the 15th.
The Thunder are coming off an impressive 105-92 win over the Celtics in Oklahoma on Sunday. The Celtics average almost 120 points per game but were held to 92 with all their main guys healthy and playing 37-40 minutes. The Thunder lead the NBA in defense and held the Celtics to 27 points in the second half.
This game will feature the NBA’s best offense against the best defense. The Cavs lead the NBA in offensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage, 2-point percentage, and 3-point percentage. They are 2nd in assists per possession and 4th in fewest turnovers per possession. The Thunder lead the league in most defensive categories.
In bench net rating OKC is #1 and Cleveland #3. In clutch time net rating the Cavs are #1 and OKC is #2. This will be a real heavyweight fight. The Cavs lead the East by 5.5 games and the Thunder lead the West by 7.0 games as both teams are separating themselves from the rest of their conferences. Both teams have had two days off before the game so there is no rest advantage either way.
The Thunder rank 11th in points per game. They are 19th in effective field goal percentage so they are just average shot makers, but they have the lowest turnover percentage in the NBA so they are 5th in field goal attempts per game. They are somewhat better on 2-point shots than on 3’s (ranking 12th versus 20th).
The Thunder like the mid-range shot, ranking 6th in mid-range frequency and accuracy. Only one team takes a lower percentage of shots at the rim and they’re middle of the pack at 3-point rate. They don’t draw many fouls (29th in free throw attempts per game) and they don’t get many offensive rebounds (25th). They protect the ball and take a lot of mid-range shots.
With Chet Holmgren still out the Thunder are a rather small team. Isaiah Hartenstein (7’0”) is their center and he averages 12 points and 12 rebounds per game. The other four starters are all between 6’3” and 6’6”.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (6’6”) is the point guard, averaging 31.3 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 6.1 assists. SGA is one of the favorites for MVP this year. He’s shooting 52% from the field and 36% on 3’s. Cason Wallace (6’3”) averages 6.7 points on 42% and 30% as the shooting guard.
Lu Dort (6’4”) plays one forward, averaging 9.9 points on 40% from the field and on 3’s. Jalen Williams (6’5”) is the other forward averaging 20.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 5.1 assists. Williams is shooting 48% and 35%. Aaron Wiggins (6’5”) averages 9.3 points off the bench and has made 7 of his last 12 three-point attempts. Kenrich Williams (6’6”) is shooting 55% and 45% off the bench in 13 minutes per game.
As a team the Thunder are shooting 35.1% on 3’s, so that is not their strong suit. They rank 29th in frequency of shots at the rim, so they prefer to shoot from mid-range or the 3-point line. The Cavaliers have the league's best defense at the rim, so that's even more reason the Thunder will be taking mostly jump shots.
I think the Cavs match up fairly well against the Thunder defensively because the Cavs’ biggest weaknesses are opponents’ 3-point shooting percentage (22nd) and defensive rebounding percentage (14th). The Thunder are slightly below average at 3-point percentage and well below average at offensive rebound percentage so they are not well-positioned to take advantage of the Cavs’ defensive weaknesses.
The Cavs biggest problem will be stopping SGA. I won’t be surprised if they put Dean Wade and Evan Mobley on him. They had Wade on LaMelo Ball some of the time on Sunday. Since Dort and Wallace are just 6’3” and 6’4” the Cavs can put guards on them and not be at a big height disadvantage, freeing up Mobley or Wade to check SGA. They could try LeVert on SGA as well.
SGA likes to drive to the rim or pull up for the mid-range jumper. Mobley has the length and quickness to deny those shots, or at least make them difficult. Mobley was the Defensive Player of the Month for December so he might be able to contain SGA.
Defensively the Thunder rank 1st in points per game, points in the paint, effective field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, steals per possession, and turnovers per possession. They are 2nd in 2-point percentage.
Opponents shoot a higher percentage of 3’s (45%) against the Thunder than any team, possibly because they’re so good defensively that teams just give up and try to shoot over that defense instead of going through it. Or they’re way behind and need to catch up.
I haven’t seen the Thunder play, but given their lack of height and their high rate of steals and forcing turnovers my guess is they are super athletic and do a great job of stripping the ball and jumping the passing lanes. Lobs might work against them if they only have one player on the floor over 6’6”.
Their only weakness defensively is rebounding where they rank 27th, so Allen and Mobley should be able to get some putbacks. Their lack of height outside of Hartenstein hurts them on the defensive glass. The key is to avoid turnovers and get the shot up, even if it’s a miss.
Surprisingly, they rank 2nd in opponents’ field goal percentage at the rim and they’re 3rd in block percentage. They are elite shot blockers and rim defenders despite not being that tall. However, Chet Holmgren gets 43% of their blocked shots and he is out tonight. The rest of the team combines for just 3.4 blocks per game, so their rim defense will be down a bit.
With Holmgren, Alex Caruso, and Ajay Mitchell out the Thunder's bench is a little thin. In their win over the Celtics they went with an 8-man rotation with the subs consisting of Aaron Wiggins (6’5”), Isaiah Joe (6’3”), and Kenrich Williams (6’6”). The only other bench player was 6’9” Jaylin Williams, but he only played 9 minutes. Their five starters all played 35-39 minutes. They never had more than one player on the floor over 6’6”. That could be a problem against the Cavs. If Hartenstein is taking Allen, who is on Mobley?
There will be great individual matchups to watch, including Allen against Hartenstein and Mobley against SGA, assuming that’s who they put on him. Garland and Mitchell should have the edge over Wallace and Dort, which leaves Wade or Niang on Jalen Williams.
So it’s the unstoppable force (Cavs’ offense) against the immovable object (Thunder defense). When the Thunder have the ball it’s an above average offense against an above average defense. The Cavs are at home and they’re deeper, but the Thunder have an almost identical record against a tougher schedule and have won 15 straight regular season games. This is definitely the game of the week in the NBA and would be the game of the month if these teams weren’t playing again in eight days.
Isaac Okoro and Sam Merrill are listed as game time decisions, so the Cavs may get a boost. If they both suit up it will be the first game this season the Cavs will have every player available (not counting the 2-way guys).
The Cavs are 31-4 and 10-0 against the West, so something has to give. According to two schedule ranking websites the Cavs have played the second easiest schedule while the Thunder have played either the 4th hardest or the 15th.
The Thunder are coming off an impressive 105-92 win over the Celtics in Oklahoma on Sunday. The Celtics average almost 120 points per game but were held to 92 with all their main guys healthy and playing 37-40 minutes. The Thunder lead the NBA in defense and held the Celtics to 27 points in the second half.
This game will feature the NBA’s best offense against the best defense. The Cavs lead the NBA in offensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage, 2-point percentage, and 3-point percentage. They are 2nd in assists per possession and 4th in fewest turnovers per possession. The Thunder lead the league in most defensive categories.
In bench net rating OKC is #1 and Cleveland #3. In clutch time net rating the Cavs are #1 and OKC is #2. This will be a real heavyweight fight. The Cavs lead the East by 5.5 games and the Thunder lead the West by 7.0 games as both teams are separating themselves from the rest of their conferences. Both teams have had two days off before the game so there is no rest advantage either way.
The Thunder rank 11th in points per game. They are 19th in effective field goal percentage so they are just average shot makers, but they have the lowest turnover percentage in the NBA so they are 5th in field goal attempts per game. They are somewhat better on 2-point shots than on 3’s (ranking 12th versus 20th).
The Thunder like the mid-range shot, ranking 6th in mid-range frequency and accuracy. Only one team takes a lower percentage of shots at the rim and they’re middle of the pack at 3-point rate. They don’t draw many fouls (29th in free throw attempts per game) and they don’t get many offensive rebounds (25th). They protect the ball and take a lot of mid-range shots.
With Chet Holmgren still out the Thunder are a rather small team. Isaiah Hartenstein (7’0”) is their center and he averages 12 points and 12 rebounds per game. The other four starters are all between 6’3” and 6’6”.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (6’6”) is the point guard, averaging 31.3 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 6.1 assists. SGA is one of the favorites for MVP this year. He’s shooting 52% from the field and 36% on 3’s. Cason Wallace (6’3”) averages 6.7 points on 42% and 30% as the shooting guard.
Lu Dort (6’4”) plays one forward, averaging 9.9 points on 40% from the field and on 3’s. Jalen Williams (6’5”) is the other forward averaging 20.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 5.1 assists. Williams is shooting 48% and 35%. Aaron Wiggins (6’5”) averages 9.3 points off the bench and has made 7 of his last 12 three-point attempts. Kenrich Williams (6’6”) is shooting 55% and 45% off the bench in 13 minutes per game.
As a team the Thunder are shooting 35.1% on 3’s, so that is not their strong suit. They rank 29th in frequency of shots at the rim, so they prefer to shoot from mid-range or the 3-point line. The Cavaliers have the league's best defense at the rim, so that's even more reason the Thunder will be taking mostly jump shots.
I think the Cavs match up fairly well against the Thunder defensively because the Cavs’ biggest weaknesses are opponents’ 3-point shooting percentage (22nd) and defensive rebounding percentage (14th). The Thunder are slightly below average at 3-point percentage and well below average at offensive rebound percentage so they are not well-positioned to take advantage of the Cavs’ defensive weaknesses.
The Cavs biggest problem will be stopping SGA. I won’t be surprised if they put Dean Wade and Evan Mobley on him. They had Wade on LaMelo Ball some of the time on Sunday. Since Dort and Wallace are just 6’3” and 6’4” the Cavs can put guards on them and not be at a big height disadvantage, freeing up Mobley or Wade to check SGA. They could try LeVert on SGA as well.
SGA likes to drive to the rim or pull up for the mid-range jumper. Mobley has the length and quickness to deny those shots, or at least make them difficult. Mobley was the Defensive Player of the Month for December so he might be able to contain SGA.
Defensively the Thunder rank 1st in points per game, points in the paint, effective field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, steals per possession, and turnovers per possession. They are 2nd in 2-point percentage.
Opponents shoot a higher percentage of 3’s (45%) against the Thunder than any team, possibly because they’re so good defensively that teams just give up and try to shoot over that defense instead of going through it. Or they’re way behind and need to catch up.
I haven’t seen the Thunder play, but given their lack of height and their high rate of steals and forcing turnovers my guess is they are super athletic and do a great job of stripping the ball and jumping the passing lanes. Lobs might work against them if they only have one player on the floor over 6’6”.
Their only weakness defensively is rebounding where they rank 27th, so Allen and Mobley should be able to get some putbacks. Their lack of height outside of Hartenstein hurts them on the defensive glass. The key is to avoid turnovers and get the shot up, even if it’s a miss.
Surprisingly, they rank 2nd in opponents’ field goal percentage at the rim and they’re 3rd in block percentage. They are elite shot blockers and rim defenders despite not being that tall. However, Chet Holmgren gets 43% of their blocked shots and he is out tonight. The rest of the team combines for just 3.4 blocks per game, so their rim defense will be down a bit.
With Holmgren, Alex Caruso, and Ajay Mitchell out the Thunder's bench is a little thin. In their win over the Celtics they went with an 8-man rotation with the subs consisting of Aaron Wiggins (6’5”), Isaiah Joe (6’3”), and Kenrich Williams (6’6”). The only other bench player was 6’9” Jaylin Williams, but he only played 9 minutes. Their five starters all played 35-39 minutes. They never had more than one player on the floor over 6’6”. That could be a problem against the Cavs. If Hartenstein is taking Allen, who is on Mobley?
There will be great individual matchups to watch, including Allen against Hartenstein and Mobley against SGA, assuming that’s who they put on him. Garland and Mitchell should have the edge over Wallace and Dort, which leaves Wade or Niang on Jalen Williams.
So it’s the unstoppable force (Cavs’ offense) against the immovable object (Thunder defense). When the Thunder have the ball it’s an above average offense against an above average defense. The Cavs are at home and they’re deeper, but the Thunder have an almost identical record against a tougher schedule and have won 15 straight regular season games. This is definitely the game of the week in the NBA and would be the game of the month if these teams weren’t playing again in eight days.
Isaac Okoro and Sam Merrill are listed as game time decisions, so the Cavs may get a boost. If they both suit up it will be the first game this season the Cavs will have every player available (not counting the 2-way guys).
