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Losers of three straight games for the first time this season and 5 of their last 8 the Cavs get a day off on Sunday before engaging the Detroit Pistons Monday night. The game is on NBA-TV and starts at 7:00 p.m.
The Pistons are 23-22 on the year. They are 13-11 on the road and 12-16 against teams .500 and over. They started 9-15, then had a hot streak at 12-4, and are 2-3 in their last five. However, those two wins were against Atlanta and Houston, both on the road. Two teams the Cavs have not been able to beat.
The Pistons are a balanced team, ranking 15th in points per game and 16th in points allowed per game.
Offensively they like to run, ranking 3rd in fast break points per game. Otherwise they’re average across the board, including effective field goal percentage, 2-point shooting percentage, 3-point shooting percentage, offensive rebound percentage, and pace.
A young team, they tend to turn the ball over, ranking 24th in turnovers per possession and they don’t get to the line much, ranking 26th in free throw attempts per play.
PG Cade Cunningham leads in scoring, assists, and is second in rebounding with an impressive line of 24.9/6.5/9.4. He’s shooting 46% from the field and 37% on 3’s. Cade ranks in the 98th percentile in usage rate so he’s the head of the snake. Too bad we won’t have Okoro, LeVert, or Wade to try and neutralize him. At 6'6" he's probably too big for Garland, Mitchell, Merrill, or Jerome. Cade scored 33 the first time these teams played.
Jaden Ivey, the #5 pick two years ago, is second in scoring at 17.6 points, but he is out with a broken fibula. Their next highest scorer is Malik Beasley who averages 16.2 points off the bench. It’s unusual for your third leading scorer not to be a starter, but Beasley averages 28 minutes. He’s shooting 40% on 3’s so the Cavs need to be aware of that.
Veteran PF Tobias Harris averages 12.8 points and SG Tim Hardaway, Jr averages 11.1. Harris and Hardaway are both 32 while the other starters are Cunningham (23), Auser Thompson (21), and Jalen Duren (21). They have no starters between 24-31 years old, which is unusual.
Other than Beasley none of Detroit’s bench players average more than 6.5 points. Their bench ranks 15th in net rating; the Cavs’ bench is 3rd. However, with LeVert, Wade, and Okoro out the Cavs’ bench is very thin and will be relying heavily on Merrill, Jerome, Niang, Thompson, and possibly CPJ and Tyson.
Defensively the Pistons are 16th in oponents' scoring but 7th in points in the paint. As I recall, Bickerstaff’s defensive philosophy when he coached the Cavs was to defend the paint first and make them beat you with jumpers. The Pistons rank 13th in defending the rim, 23rd in the mid-range, and 24th in defending 3’s. Since the Cavs lead the NBA in 3-point percentage this seems to be a favorable matchup; the league’s best 3-point shooting team against the 24th best 3-point defending team.
The Pistons rank 11th in opponents’ 2-point shooting percentage so this definitely seems like a team to shoot a lot of 3’s against. If they collapse their defense to clog the paint on dribble-drives it could lead to wide open 3’s off kickouts. Maybe that’s why they’re 24th in opponents’ 3-point percentage.
This is the second of four games between these teams. The Cavs won at home in Game #2 by a 113-101 score, so it’s been a while and the Pistons have improved substantially. Cunningham had 33 points and Ivey 22 in that game, but Ivey is out. Beasley was the next highest scorer with 13 off the bench.
The Pistons are averaging 112 points per game, but without Ivey’s 17.6 points you would think they’d have trouble hitting that number. However, they are 8-5 since Ivey’s injury and are averaging 114 ppg so their offense has actually gotten a little better.
The Pistons are 4.7 points per 100 possessions worse when Ivey is on the floor so his injury hasn’t hurt them. Ivey is in the 12th percentile defensively for his position so that explains why they’re still over .500 even without him - their defense is better.
The Cavs are the NBA’s second worst defensive team in January and are missing three of their best defenders so they may have to just outscore the Pistons with a big night from the 3-point line. In the last two games Garland and Mitchell have combined to score 135 points so they are on a roll, but they need help. I think Ty Jerome was exhausted from his 33-point game in Philadelphia because he went 1-for-8 against the Rockets. With a day off he'll hopefully bounce back.
The Pistons’ top players in terms of on/off are Harris (age 32) and Beasley (28), which shows the value of experience. Cunningham is 3rd in on/off and all their other rotation players are in the negative.
The Pistons have some talented young players and they are wisely sprinkling in a few vets like Tobias Harris, Beasley, Isaiah Stewart, and Tim Hardaway, Jr to help them along. It’s working. I wish we’d played more games against them earlier in the season.
Hardaway is the worst defender on the team (5th percentile) which is not surprising since he’s 32 years old. I expect Garland and Mitchell to attack him relentlessly off the dribble to get penetration for floaters, lobs, or kickouts. His backup at point guard is 6’2” Marcus Sasser, a second year player who was a late first round pick in 2023. He’s averaging 6 points per game in 14 minutes but his defensive on/off is good.
The Pistons are 13th in 3-point percentage and the Cavs have recently been shredded by Houston and Philadelphia, so I expect Bickerstaff will have his guys jacking up 3’s, especially now that Mobley is back.
The Cavs got a real wakeup call the last three games as the Rockets and Sixers, both under 35% in 3-point percentage, shot 48% on 3’s. The Cavs are talking about tightening up the defense and Evan Mobley called them out, saying they have “slacked” and that “we’ve just got to put more emphasis on the defensive side."
We’ll see how they respond.
The Pistons are 23-22 on the year. They are 13-11 on the road and 12-16 against teams .500 and over. They started 9-15, then had a hot streak at 12-4, and are 2-3 in their last five. However, those two wins were against Atlanta and Houston, both on the road. Two teams the Cavs have not been able to beat.
The Pistons are a balanced team, ranking 15th in points per game and 16th in points allowed per game.
Offensively they like to run, ranking 3rd in fast break points per game. Otherwise they’re average across the board, including effective field goal percentage, 2-point shooting percentage, 3-point shooting percentage, offensive rebound percentage, and pace.
A young team, they tend to turn the ball over, ranking 24th in turnovers per possession and they don’t get to the line much, ranking 26th in free throw attempts per play.
PG Cade Cunningham leads in scoring, assists, and is second in rebounding with an impressive line of 24.9/6.5/9.4. He’s shooting 46% from the field and 37% on 3’s. Cade ranks in the 98th percentile in usage rate so he’s the head of the snake. Too bad we won’t have Okoro, LeVert, or Wade to try and neutralize him. At 6'6" he's probably too big for Garland, Mitchell, Merrill, or Jerome. Cade scored 33 the first time these teams played.
Jaden Ivey, the #5 pick two years ago, is second in scoring at 17.6 points, but he is out with a broken fibula. Their next highest scorer is Malik Beasley who averages 16.2 points off the bench. It’s unusual for your third leading scorer not to be a starter, but Beasley averages 28 minutes. He’s shooting 40% on 3’s so the Cavs need to be aware of that.
Veteran PF Tobias Harris averages 12.8 points and SG Tim Hardaway, Jr averages 11.1. Harris and Hardaway are both 32 while the other starters are Cunningham (23), Auser Thompson (21), and Jalen Duren (21). They have no starters between 24-31 years old, which is unusual.
Other than Beasley none of Detroit’s bench players average more than 6.5 points. Their bench ranks 15th in net rating; the Cavs’ bench is 3rd. However, with LeVert, Wade, and Okoro out the Cavs’ bench is very thin and will be relying heavily on Merrill, Jerome, Niang, Thompson, and possibly CPJ and Tyson.
Defensively the Pistons are 16th in oponents' scoring but 7th in points in the paint. As I recall, Bickerstaff’s defensive philosophy when he coached the Cavs was to defend the paint first and make them beat you with jumpers. The Pistons rank 13th in defending the rim, 23rd in the mid-range, and 24th in defending 3’s. Since the Cavs lead the NBA in 3-point percentage this seems to be a favorable matchup; the league’s best 3-point shooting team against the 24th best 3-point defending team.
The Pistons rank 11th in opponents’ 2-point shooting percentage so this definitely seems like a team to shoot a lot of 3’s against. If they collapse their defense to clog the paint on dribble-drives it could lead to wide open 3’s off kickouts. Maybe that’s why they’re 24th in opponents’ 3-point percentage.
This is the second of four games between these teams. The Cavs won at home in Game #2 by a 113-101 score, so it’s been a while and the Pistons have improved substantially. Cunningham had 33 points and Ivey 22 in that game, but Ivey is out. Beasley was the next highest scorer with 13 off the bench.
The Pistons are averaging 112 points per game, but without Ivey’s 17.6 points you would think they’d have trouble hitting that number. However, they are 8-5 since Ivey’s injury and are averaging 114 ppg so their offense has actually gotten a little better.
The Pistons are 4.7 points per 100 possessions worse when Ivey is on the floor so his injury hasn’t hurt them. Ivey is in the 12th percentile defensively for his position so that explains why they’re still over .500 even without him - their defense is better.
The Cavs are the NBA’s second worst defensive team in January and are missing three of their best defenders so they may have to just outscore the Pistons with a big night from the 3-point line. In the last two games Garland and Mitchell have combined to score 135 points so they are on a roll, but they need help. I think Ty Jerome was exhausted from his 33-point game in Philadelphia because he went 1-for-8 against the Rockets. With a day off he'll hopefully bounce back.
The Pistons’ top players in terms of on/off are Harris (age 32) and Beasley (28), which shows the value of experience. Cunningham is 3rd in on/off and all their other rotation players are in the negative.
The Pistons have some talented young players and they are wisely sprinkling in a few vets like Tobias Harris, Beasley, Isaiah Stewart, and Tim Hardaway, Jr to help them along. It’s working. I wish we’d played more games against them earlier in the season.
Hardaway is the worst defender on the team (5th percentile) which is not surprising since he’s 32 years old. I expect Garland and Mitchell to attack him relentlessly off the dribble to get penetration for floaters, lobs, or kickouts. His backup at point guard is 6’2” Marcus Sasser, a second year player who was a late first round pick in 2023. He’s averaging 6 points per game in 14 minutes but his defensive on/off is good.
The Pistons are 13th in 3-point percentage and the Cavs have recently been shredded by Houston and Philadelphia, so I expect Bickerstaff will have his guys jacking up 3’s, especially now that Mobley is back.
The Cavs got a real wakeup call the last three games as the Rockets and Sixers, both under 35% in 3-point percentage, shot 48% on 3’s. The Cavs are talking about tightening up the defense and Evan Mobley called them out, saying they have “slacked” and that “we’ve just got to put more emphasis on the defensive side."
We’ll see how they respond.
