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The Cavs’ five-game western road trip continues with game 3 in Phoenix. The Cavs have tied their longest losing streak of the season (three) and will try to get back on track against the Suns. Phoenix is 33-37 overall but are tough at home. They have won 5 of their last 6 at home and are 21-13 at home for the season. They are only 11-24 against teams .500 and over. The Suns are battling for a playoff spot as they are tied for 10th place with Dallas. Portland is two games behind so every game is critical.
The Cavs are in a place in their schedule where they are playing teams that are fighting for seeding or a playoff appearance while the Cavs are coasting to the finish and resting key starters. This has been a factor in their losing streak.
Both teams have had one day off. Bradley Beal is out for the Suns. He is averaging 17 ppg but the Suns have been nearly 12 points better when he is off the court so his loss may actually help them. Backup center Mason Plumlee is also out and backup guard Grayson Allen is listed as a game time decision.
The Suns rank 13th in scoring. They play very deliberately, ranking 27th in shots per game and 27th in fast break points. They take their time and work to get off high percentage shots. They are excellent shooters, ranking 3rd in effective field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. They are 29th in points in the paint and last in percentage of shots taken at the rim. These guys are more jump shooters than slashers.
The Suns are an experienced group that moves the ball, ranking 4th in assists per possession. They work the ball around to set up an open shot, then fall back on defense. They rank 26th in offensive rebound percentage which is great for the Cavs because they have had a lot of problems controlling the defensive glass lately.
The Suns rank 2nd in percentage of mid-range shots and 2nd in shooting percentage on mid-range shots so in that respect they are a lot like what the Cavs have been seeing on this trip with Kawhi Leonard and DeMar DeRozan. Kevin Durant likes to get to his spots and hit the high percentage 2-point shot much like the other two. He averages six 3-point attempts per game against 12 two-pointers.
The Suns are very accurate shooters from both the mid-range and on 3’s. They lead the NBA on shooting percentage at the rim but they are last in shot attempts at the rim. They prefer jumpers and don’t force the ball to the rim, but if they get a dunk they’ll take it.
The Cavs have not been playing good defense recently so the Suns will be a great challenge even with Beal out. Grayson Allen is hitting 43% on 3’s off the bench so if he can’t play that would help.
Durant at age 36 is still rolling along, averaging 26 points on 53% overall and 42% from deep, both numbers above his career averages. Devin Booker averages 26 points and 7 assists at point guard on 46% overall and 35% on 3’s.
With Beal out the next highest scorers are Allen, Nick Richards, Tyus Jones, and Royce O’Neal, all in the 9-11 point range. So after KD and Booker the Suns don’t have anybody averaging more than 11 ppg.
Last game they started KD, Booker, Richards, and a couple of young guys; Collin Gillespie, a 6’1” undrafted second year player averaging 3.4 points, and Ryan Dunn, a rookie forward who was the 28th pick. Dunn is 6’8”, 216, and averages 6.4 points.
Defensively the Cavs should aggressively contest the mid-range and 3-point shots as the Suns go to the rim less than any team in the Association. With Beal out the Cavs can put their best perimeter defenders on KD and Booker, maybe even doubling them to get the ball out of their hands. However, Grayson Allen, O’Neale, and Jones are all hitting 42-43% from deep so they can’t be left unattended.
Of the Cavs’ 13 losses, ten have occurred when the opponent shot 40% or better on 3’s. In their last three games, all losses, the Cavs’ opponents shot 42%, 46%, and 46% on 3’s. I'm sure the Suns have taken note. With smaller players like Garland, Mitchell, Jerome, Merrill, Strus, and Okoro defending the perimeter the Cavs have not been able to contest 3-point shots effectively, especially when the shooters are 6’6” and over. This game will be a good test to see if the Cavs can find a solution.
The Suns rank 22nd in scoring defense. They are pretty much low average across the board at defending shots. Where they are somewhat vulnerable is defensive rebounding where they rank 21st, still on the low end of average. The Cavs should be able to get some offensive boards.
The one area where the Suns are bad defensively is forcing turnovers where they rank 28th. They appear to play conservatively on defense, not gambling for steals like the Kings. The Cavs should be able to get shots up. The Suns are low average defending shots at the rim, mid-range, and 3’s so there is no advantage to attacking them in any specific area.
This might be a team the Cavs have to outscore. After seeing the Cavs give up 132 to the Clippers and 123 to the Kings (without two of their three leading scorers) I have little confidence this team can stop KD and Booker from getting whatever they want. I assume that having lost three straight Kenny will not be resting any starters for this game. The Cavs are off tomorrow and then play 16-54 Utah, a team that is not desperate for a win for playoff positioning.
Darius Garland has had three days off so I expect him to be the tip of the spear for the Cavaliers in this one.
The Cavs are in a place in their schedule where they are playing teams that are fighting for seeding or a playoff appearance while the Cavs are coasting to the finish and resting key starters. This has been a factor in their losing streak.
Both teams have had one day off. Bradley Beal is out for the Suns. He is averaging 17 ppg but the Suns have been nearly 12 points better when he is off the court so his loss may actually help them. Backup center Mason Plumlee is also out and backup guard Grayson Allen is listed as a game time decision.
The Suns rank 13th in scoring. They play very deliberately, ranking 27th in shots per game and 27th in fast break points. They take their time and work to get off high percentage shots. They are excellent shooters, ranking 3rd in effective field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. They are 29th in points in the paint and last in percentage of shots taken at the rim. These guys are more jump shooters than slashers.
The Suns are an experienced group that moves the ball, ranking 4th in assists per possession. They work the ball around to set up an open shot, then fall back on defense. They rank 26th in offensive rebound percentage which is great for the Cavs because they have had a lot of problems controlling the defensive glass lately.
The Suns rank 2nd in percentage of mid-range shots and 2nd in shooting percentage on mid-range shots so in that respect they are a lot like what the Cavs have been seeing on this trip with Kawhi Leonard and DeMar DeRozan. Kevin Durant likes to get to his spots and hit the high percentage 2-point shot much like the other two. He averages six 3-point attempts per game against 12 two-pointers.
The Suns are very accurate shooters from both the mid-range and on 3’s. They lead the NBA on shooting percentage at the rim but they are last in shot attempts at the rim. They prefer jumpers and don’t force the ball to the rim, but if they get a dunk they’ll take it.
The Cavs have not been playing good defense recently so the Suns will be a great challenge even with Beal out. Grayson Allen is hitting 43% on 3’s off the bench so if he can’t play that would help.
Durant at age 36 is still rolling along, averaging 26 points on 53% overall and 42% from deep, both numbers above his career averages. Devin Booker averages 26 points and 7 assists at point guard on 46% overall and 35% on 3’s.
With Beal out the next highest scorers are Allen, Nick Richards, Tyus Jones, and Royce O’Neal, all in the 9-11 point range. So after KD and Booker the Suns don’t have anybody averaging more than 11 ppg.
Last game they started KD, Booker, Richards, and a couple of young guys; Collin Gillespie, a 6’1” undrafted second year player averaging 3.4 points, and Ryan Dunn, a rookie forward who was the 28th pick. Dunn is 6’8”, 216, and averages 6.4 points.
Defensively the Cavs should aggressively contest the mid-range and 3-point shots as the Suns go to the rim less than any team in the Association. With Beal out the Cavs can put their best perimeter defenders on KD and Booker, maybe even doubling them to get the ball out of their hands. However, Grayson Allen, O’Neale, and Jones are all hitting 42-43% from deep so they can’t be left unattended.
Of the Cavs’ 13 losses, ten have occurred when the opponent shot 40% or better on 3’s. In their last three games, all losses, the Cavs’ opponents shot 42%, 46%, and 46% on 3’s. I'm sure the Suns have taken note. With smaller players like Garland, Mitchell, Jerome, Merrill, Strus, and Okoro defending the perimeter the Cavs have not been able to contest 3-point shots effectively, especially when the shooters are 6’6” and over. This game will be a good test to see if the Cavs can find a solution.
The Suns rank 22nd in scoring defense. They are pretty much low average across the board at defending shots. Where they are somewhat vulnerable is defensive rebounding where they rank 21st, still on the low end of average. The Cavs should be able to get some offensive boards.
The one area where the Suns are bad defensively is forcing turnovers where they rank 28th. They appear to play conservatively on defense, not gambling for steals like the Kings. The Cavs should be able to get shots up. The Suns are low average defending shots at the rim, mid-range, and 3’s so there is no advantage to attacking them in any specific area.
This might be a team the Cavs have to outscore. After seeing the Cavs give up 132 to the Clippers and 123 to the Kings (without two of their three leading scorers) I have little confidence this team can stop KD and Booker from getting whatever they want. I assume that having lost three straight Kenny will not be resting any starters for this game. The Cavs are off tomorrow and then play 16-54 Utah, a team that is not desperate for a win for playoff positioning.
Darius Garland has had three days off so I expect him to be the tip of the spear for the Cavaliers in this one.
