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With a three-game win streak in tow the Cavs head to Detroit for what appears to be a schedule loss. The Cavs will be playing on the second night of a back-to-back with travel while the Pistons have been home for a week and had the last two days off. The Cavs will be playing their third game in four nights. Last night's game against the Spurs came down to the wire and Donovan Mitchell played 35 minutes. Evan Mobley got the night off, however, and nobody else played more than 31 minutes.
The Pistons are 41-32 and 2.0 games behind the Pacers for 4th place in the East. Detroit is 0.5 games ahead of Milwaukee so they could realistically finish anywhere from 4th through 6th. Obviously they would prefer 4th so they get home court advantage in the first round. The Bucks will likely finish 6th as they just lost Damian Lillard, so the Cavs' second round opponent will likely be the winner of the Detroit/Indiana series. Indiana scored 162 points on Washington last night, by the way. The game was in Washington. Those fans should have their tickets refunded.
This game means a lot more to the Pistons than it does to the Cavs. The Cavs are 3-0 against Detroit this year so this is the Pistons’ chance to avoid a sweep and send a message in case they meet the Cavs in the playoffs. And to stay alive for a possible 4th seed.
The Cavs beat the Pistons in a close one, 118-115, the last time these teams played. Cade Cunningham scored 38 points and added 7 rebounds and 9 assists. He either scored or assisted on at least 56 of the Pistons’ 115 points. Tim Hardaway Jr scored 20 that night and nobody else had more than 12. Cade is about half their offense and the Cavs' get a huge break in that he is out with a calf contusion. In three games against the Cavs he's averaging 31 points, 5 rebounds, and 7 assists.
The Pistons are rolling; their record is 16-6 over their last 22 games. Since starting 11-17 they have gone 30-15. Starting PG Jaden Ivey has been out for a while as he only played 30 games before going down for the season, but they keep winning anyway.
With the Pistons on a roll and having two days off at home while the Cavs have to fly in after the Spurs game I would say the Pistons have a huge advantage. However, Evan Mobley went ballistic with 30 points, 9 rebounds, 7 assists, and 4 blocks in the last game against the Pistons and he’s had two days off.
After Cunningham the Pistons’ leading healthy scorer is Malik Beasley at 16.2 ppg. Beasley is hitting 42% from deep and comes off the bench firing from long range. Veteran Tobias Harris averages 14 ppg on 47% from the field and center Jalen Duren averages 12 points and 10 boards. Tim Hardaway Jr rounds out the starting lineup at 10.3 points on 40% and 36%.
The Pistons rank 11th in scoring at 115.4 ppg but in March they’re up to 120.3. They like to attack the rim, ranking 4th in frequency of shots at the rim and 25th in frequency of 3-point shots. In terms of accuracy at the rim they’re only 18th, however.
The Pistons are an athletic bunch that play fast, ranking 9th in pace, but they’re 22nd in turnovers. They’re 10th in offensive rebound percentage led by Duren and Ausar Thompson. It will be mainly up to Mobley and Allen to contest shots at the rim and force misses, then it will be up to the guards and wings to get the rebound and limit putbacks and especially uncontested 3’s following an offensive board. The Cavs gave up 19 offensive rebounds to the Spurs (playing without Wemby) last night and I expect they'll give up at least that many to the Pistons, who are a better offensive rebounding team.
Defensively the Pistons are average, ranking 14th in points per game. They defend the rim well, as we know from the last few years when Bickerstaff coached a Cavs' defense that emphasized no layups. The Pistons rank 4th in fewest points in the paint allowed and 23rd in defending 3’s, so this is a team that it probably makes sense to shoot a lot of 3’s against.
The Pistons hack a lot, ranking 28th in opponents’ free throw attempts per possession. If the refs are “letting them play” it will be disadvantageous for the Cavs. The Pistons rank 4th in defensive rebound percentage so the Cavs need to hit the first shot.
The Pistons’ only statistical weaknesses on defense are they don’t defend 3’s well and they foul a lot. The Cavs need to hit their 3’s, draw fouls, and make their free throws.
This will be a tired Cavs’ team going up against a rested and highly motivated Pistons team that only has 9 games left and needs to make up two games on Indiana to get home court advantage. I’d say this looks like a Pistons’ win, but with Cade out it changes everything. Cade's backup is veteran Dennis Schroeder. I'd say it's anybody's game.
The Pistons are 41-32 and 2.0 games behind the Pacers for 4th place in the East. Detroit is 0.5 games ahead of Milwaukee so they could realistically finish anywhere from 4th through 6th. Obviously they would prefer 4th so they get home court advantage in the first round. The Bucks will likely finish 6th as they just lost Damian Lillard, so the Cavs' second round opponent will likely be the winner of the Detroit/Indiana series. Indiana scored 162 points on Washington last night, by the way. The game was in Washington. Those fans should have their tickets refunded.
This game means a lot more to the Pistons than it does to the Cavs. The Cavs are 3-0 against Detroit this year so this is the Pistons’ chance to avoid a sweep and send a message in case they meet the Cavs in the playoffs. And to stay alive for a possible 4th seed.
The Cavs beat the Pistons in a close one, 118-115, the last time these teams played. Cade Cunningham scored 38 points and added 7 rebounds and 9 assists. He either scored or assisted on at least 56 of the Pistons’ 115 points. Tim Hardaway Jr scored 20 that night and nobody else had more than 12. Cade is about half their offense and the Cavs' get a huge break in that he is out with a calf contusion. In three games against the Cavs he's averaging 31 points, 5 rebounds, and 7 assists.
The Pistons are rolling; their record is 16-6 over their last 22 games. Since starting 11-17 they have gone 30-15. Starting PG Jaden Ivey has been out for a while as he only played 30 games before going down for the season, but they keep winning anyway.
With the Pistons on a roll and having two days off at home while the Cavs have to fly in after the Spurs game I would say the Pistons have a huge advantage. However, Evan Mobley went ballistic with 30 points, 9 rebounds, 7 assists, and 4 blocks in the last game against the Pistons and he’s had two days off.
After Cunningham the Pistons’ leading healthy scorer is Malik Beasley at 16.2 ppg. Beasley is hitting 42% from deep and comes off the bench firing from long range. Veteran Tobias Harris averages 14 ppg on 47% from the field and center Jalen Duren averages 12 points and 10 boards. Tim Hardaway Jr rounds out the starting lineup at 10.3 points on 40% and 36%.
The Pistons rank 11th in scoring at 115.4 ppg but in March they’re up to 120.3. They like to attack the rim, ranking 4th in frequency of shots at the rim and 25th in frequency of 3-point shots. In terms of accuracy at the rim they’re only 18th, however.
The Pistons are an athletic bunch that play fast, ranking 9th in pace, but they’re 22nd in turnovers. They’re 10th in offensive rebound percentage led by Duren and Ausar Thompson. It will be mainly up to Mobley and Allen to contest shots at the rim and force misses, then it will be up to the guards and wings to get the rebound and limit putbacks and especially uncontested 3’s following an offensive board. The Cavs gave up 19 offensive rebounds to the Spurs (playing without Wemby) last night and I expect they'll give up at least that many to the Pistons, who are a better offensive rebounding team.
Defensively the Pistons are average, ranking 14th in points per game. They defend the rim well, as we know from the last few years when Bickerstaff coached a Cavs' defense that emphasized no layups. The Pistons rank 4th in fewest points in the paint allowed and 23rd in defending 3’s, so this is a team that it probably makes sense to shoot a lot of 3’s against.
The Pistons hack a lot, ranking 28th in opponents’ free throw attempts per possession. If the refs are “letting them play” it will be disadvantageous for the Cavs. The Pistons rank 4th in defensive rebound percentage so the Cavs need to hit the first shot.
The Pistons’ only statistical weaknesses on defense are they don’t defend 3’s well and they foul a lot. The Cavs need to hit their 3’s, draw fouls, and make their free throws.
This will be a tired Cavs’ team going up against a rested and highly motivated Pistons team that only has 9 games left and needs to make up two games on Indiana to get home court advantage. I’d say this looks like a Pistons’ win, but with Cade out it changes everything. Cade's backup is veteran Dennis Schroeder. I'd say it's anybody's game.
