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After going 3-4 on the road the Guardians return home for a weekend series against the Minnesota Twins who are lurking 2.5 games behind the Guardians. The Twins are 24-19 but they’ve been very good on the road at 13-8 while the Guardians have won 10 of their last 13 home games.
The Twins started 7-13 but have since gone 17-6. These teams played twice in Minnesota in April with the Guardians winning 4-2 and 3-1.
The Guardians are still without Steven Kwan while the Twins have been without Royce Lewis since he blew a quad on opening day.
The Twins rank 10th in runs per game. They are a free swinging power team, ranking 24th in walk percentage and 21st in strikeout percentage. The Guardians’ pitchers should be able to get them to chase.
The Twins rank 2nd in extra base hit percentage and 4th in isolated power so they don’t hit many singles. They have 24 stolen bases in 42 games so they mostly wait for the big hit when they’re on base. They are 8th in slugging percentage and 10th in home run percentage. Not many walks, singles, or stolen bases. They dig in and swing for the fences. The key is not making bad pitches to the wrong guys.
The Twins just got swept by the Yankees at home, scoring one run in the three game series. They hit .169 and their only run was a solo homer by Ryan Jeffers.
They are hitting .275 against lefties and .225 against right-handers. Logan Allen pitches Saturday so he will need to be on top of his game.
The Twins' pitchers rank 16th in ERA. Their bullpen ranks 12th. Their staff is second lowest in walk percentage at 6.9%, so you have to hit your way on. They are vulnerable to the long ball ranking 25th in opponents’ home run percentage. They’re 20th in opponents’ slugging percentage. It appears that down in the count they challenge the hitter than walk him and sometimes they get burned. They’re slightly below average at preventing stolen bases.
C Ryan Jeffers leads the Twins in OPS at .283/.979. Jeffers has 10 home runs and 31 RBI’s and is having an All-Star season. Carlos Santana and Edouard Julian each have 7 home runs and nobody else has more than 3. Jeffers, Santana, and Julian are the guys you have to be careful with.
Carlos is on his sixth team in the last five years, including his third A.L. Central team. He just needs to play for the Tigers and White Sox to have a ball cap from the entire division. He’s now 38 and is hitting .208, but he can still punish a bad pitch. He’s having a good May, hitting .244/.781 with three homers in his last five games.
Max Kepler, in his 10th year with the Twins at age 31, is hitting .304/.856, well above his career averages. He’s on fire right now, hitting .396 in his last 16 games. He has 22 home runs in 117 games against the Guardians, but only a .205 BA. You can get him out but be careful about throwing anything down and in.
Byron Buxton is supposed to return from the IL on Saturday. He’s hitting .250/.691. LF Trevor Larnach is hitting .302/.833 against RHPs. He doesn’t play against lefties.
Tristan McKenzie takes on 23-year-old rookie sensation Simeon Woods Richardson in the opener. SWR allowed just four earned runs in his first four starts but then coughed up five runs in his last start against the Blue Jays in 4.1 innings. With nobody on base opponents are hitting .213 against him, but with runners on they’re hitting .343/.775 and with RISP it’s .368/.812. Obviously the key is to get somebody on and make him pitch from the stretch.
All five of his starts were against teams ranked between 22-30 in scoring. The Guardians are 8th.
McKenzie got rocked early but settled down and has an ERA of 2.28 in his last five starts. Current Twins hitters have a .175/.613 line against him. Carlos Correa is 5-for-14 with two home runs.
Logan Allen goes against Bailey Ober on Saturday. Ober is 4-1, 3.77 ERA. He got hammered in his first start but since then has a 2.16 ERA in seven starts. This will be a tough one since the Twins hit lefties very well and Ober is on a roll.
Sunday it’s Tanner Bibee against Chris Paddack, 4-2, 4.89. Bibee held the Twins to one run in 5.1 innings in early April.
The Twins started 7-13 but have since gone 17-6. These teams played twice in Minnesota in April with the Guardians winning 4-2 and 3-1.
The Guardians are still without Steven Kwan while the Twins have been without Royce Lewis since he blew a quad on opening day.
The Twins rank 10th in runs per game. They are a free swinging power team, ranking 24th in walk percentage and 21st in strikeout percentage. The Guardians’ pitchers should be able to get them to chase.
The Twins rank 2nd in extra base hit percentage and 4th in isolated power so they don’t hit many singles. They have 24 stolen bases in 42 games so they mostly wait for the big hit when they’re on base. They are 8th in slugging percentage and 10th in home run percentage. Not many walks, singles, or stolen bases. They dig in and swing for the fences. The key is not making bad pitches to the wrong guys.
The Twins just got swept by the Yankees at home, scoring one run in the three game series. They hit .169 and their only run was a solo homer by Ryan Jeffers.
They are hitting .275 against lefties and .225 against right-handers. Logan Allen pitches Saturday so he will need to be on top of his game.
The Twins' pitchers rank 16th in ERA. Their bullpen ranks 12th. Their staff is second lowest in walk percentage at 6.9%, so you have to hit your way on. They are vulnerable to the long ball ranking 25th in opponents’ home run percentage. They’re 20th in opponents’ slugging percentage. It appears that down in the count they challenge the hitter than walk him and sometimes they get burned. They’re slightly below average at preventing stolen bases.
C Ryan Jeffers leads the Twins in OPS at .283/.979. Jeffers has 10 home runs and 31 RBI’s and is having an All-Star season. Carlos Santana and Edouard Julian each have 7 home runs and nobody else has more than 3. Jeffers, Santana, and Julian are the guys you have to be careful with.
Carlos is on his sixth team in the last five years, including his third A.L. Central team. He just needs to play for the Tigers and White Sox to have a ball cap from the entire division. He’s now 38 and is hitting .208, but he can still punish a bad pitch. He’s having a good May, hitting .244/.781 with three homers in his last five games.
Max Kepler, in his 10th year with the Twins at age 31, is hitting .304/.856, well above his career averages. He’s on fire right now, hitting .396 in his last 16 games. He has 22 home runs in 117 games against the Guardians, but only a .205 BA. You can get him out but be careful about throwing anything down and in.
Byron Buxton is supposed to return from the IL on Saturday. He’s hitting .250/.691. LF Trevor Larnach is hitting .302/.833 against RHPs. He doesn’t play against lefties.
Tristan McKenzie takes on 23-year-old rookie sensation Simeon Woods Richardson in the opener. SWR allowed just four earned runs in his first four starts but then coughed up five runs in his last start against the Blue Jays in 4.1 innings. With nobody on base opponents are hitting .213 against him, but with runners on they’re hitting .343/.775 and with RISP it’s .368/.812. Obviously the key is to get somebody on and make him pitch from the stretch.
All five of his starts were against teams ranked between 22-30 in scoring. The Guardians are 8th.
McKenzie got rocked early but settled down and has an ERA of 2.28 in his last five starts. Current Twins hitters have a .175/.613 line against him. Carlos Correa is 5-for-14 with two home runs.
Logan Allen goes against Bailey Ober on Saturday. Ober is 4-1, 3.77 ERA. He got hammered in his first start but since then has a 2.16 ERA in seven starts. This will be a tough one since the Twins hit lefties very well and Ober is on a roll.
Sunday it’s Tanner Bibee against Chris Paddack, 4-2, 4.89. Bibee held the Twins to one run in 5.1 innings in early April.
