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After a day off to enjoy some home cooking the Guardians host the Royals for the first three of 13 games that might have a lot to say about who wins the division. The Guardians have a four game lead over the Royals, who are 14-15 on the road. The Guardians are 20-7 at home which is the second best home winning percentage behind Philadelphia.
The Royals have lost six of eight since their 8-game winning streak ended. They are 7-14 against teams at or over .500 while the Guardians are 14-7. They also lost starting pitcher Michael Wacha (4-5, 4.24) to a fractured foot. Wacha was scheduled to start Wednesday. Also, 2B Michael Massey is on the IL with a back sprain. He is hitting .294/.835. He can be activated on Tuesday but whether he will be ready to play is unknown.
The Royals have been much better at home with a record of 22-10 versus 14-15 away. Offensively they rank 3rd in runs per game at home and 19th on the road. Since there is such a large difference I will use their road statistics for offense. On the road they rank 27th in on-base percentage, wOBA, and wRC+. They are also 27th in walks; they are not a patient bunch. They rank 17th in home run percentage, 20th in isolated power, and 23rd in slugging. The only offensive category where they are above average on the road is strikeout percentage, where they rank 8th.
The Royals are hitting .275/.793 at home and .228/.649 on the road, so there is a huge difference of 144 points in their OPS. The Guardians need to win these games because the Royals are very good in their own ballpark.
The Royals have excelled with runners on base, hitting .303/.829. Their numbers with RISP are almost identical. With none on they’re hitting .218/.643 so the key is to not let them get on base.
The Royals have a good pitching staff, ranking 9th in ERA. Unlike their hitters, their pitchers are just as good on the road as at home, even better. Their road ERA is 3.47 versus 3.67 at home. Kauffman Stadium is the third most hitter friendly park in baseball so far this year which is partly responsible for the Royals hitting so much better at home.
The Royals’ staff excels at preventing home runs, ranking 2nd best in opponents’ home run percentage. They make you string hits together. They do a great job controlling the running game, leading the majors in opponents' stolen base percentage at just under 66%. They don’t strike out a lot of batters, ranking 27th in strikeout percentage, so the Guardians will be putting a lot of balls in play. Fangraphs ranks the Royals second in the majors in defense and fourth in ultimate zone rating. They cover a lot of ground.
That combination of allowing very few home runs and very few stolen bases means you have to string hits together to score and that’s difficult against the game’s second best defense that also has great range.
The Guardians have the bullpen advantage as the Royals' bullpen ranks 23rd in WAR and 24th in ERA while the Guardians' bullpen is 1st in both categories. If our starters can get to the 7th inning with the Guardians tied or ahead I like our chances.
The Royals have feasted on losing teams with a record of 29-11 against teams under .500 versus 7-14 against teams .500 or over. So they may have padded their stats against their weaker opponents. This series will be a good test of how good they actually are. They are 2-4 against Baltimore, 2-5 against Minnesota, 1-2 against the Yankees, 6-1 against the White Sox, and 5-1 against Toronto.
Bobby Witt Jr (.313/.906) and Salvador Perez (.315/.899) lead the offense. Perez, the 34-year-old catcher, is having a career season. His career line is .269/.765 so he is way, way above that. I’m thinking at his age he should regress to the mean, especially since catching wears on you as the season goes on.
His best season out of 12 so far was the pandemic shortened 2020 when he hit .333/.986 in 37 games; he never got the chance to wear down. This year Perez hit .368 in April, .284 in May, and .231 in the last seven days, so the regression may already be happening. I wonder what numbers he would put up if they just made him a DH and had him catch twice a week.
Triston McKenzie goes in the opener against Seth Lugo, a 34-year-old right-hander who spent eight years in the NL before coming over last off-season. Lugo is 49-32 with a 3.30 ERA and was a reliever until last season when the Padres converted him to a starter. Lugo is off to a phenomenal start at 9-1, 1.72 ERA. He probably would be the All-Star game starter if they made the selections now.
The Royals are 9-3 when Lugo starts. His road ERA is an amazing 0.86. Opponents are hitting .150 with runners on base and with RISP and two out they are 0-for-25. Yes, 0-for-25. With Monday being a day off he’ll be pitching with an extra day of rest.
Lugo’s FIP is 3.22 which is right on his career ERA average, so he’s been helped enormously by KC’s stellar defense.
McKenzie had a 3.06 ERA in six May starts so he has been very good but not spectacular recently. He has dominated the Royals. Current Royals players are hitting .128 off him. Perez is 3-for-18, Witt is 2-for-9, and the rest are 1-for-20. This could be a low scoring game.
Logan Allen starts Wednesday against Brady Singer, 4-2, 2.63. Singer has been sick but is expected to be ready to start Wednesday. He has not pitched since May 25. Allen is coming off a shellacking in Colorado but hopefully a return to sea level will help him get back on track. But his ERA at home is 7.33 so I’m not optimistic, especially since Witt and Perez hit right-handed.
Tanner Bibee goes in Thursday’s finale, which will be at 1:10 p.m. Michael Wacha was scheduled to pitch for the Royals but after having his foot fractured by a batted ball they will have to find someone else. The Royals' five starters have started every game but one this year so this is just the second time they will have to find a substitute starter.
The Royals have lost six of eight since their 8-game winning streak ended. They are 7-14 against teams at or over .500 while the Guardians are 14-7. They also lost starting pitcher Michael Wacha (4-5, 4.24) to a fractured foot. Wacha was scheduled to start Wednesday. Also, 2B Michael Massey is on the IL with a back sprain. He is hitting .294/.835. He can be activated on Tuesday but whether he will be ready to play is unknown.
The Royals have been much better at home with a record of 22-10 versus 14-15 away. Offensively they rank 3rd in runs per game at home and 19th on the road. Since there is such a large difference I will use their road statistics for offense. On the road they rank 27th in on-base percentage, wOBA, and wRC+. They are also 27th in walks; they are not a patient bunch. They rank 17th in home run percentage, 20th in isolated power, and 23rd in slugging. The only offensive category where they are above average on the road is strikeout percentage, where they rank 8th.
The Royals are hitting .275/.793 at home and .228/.649 on the road, so there is a huge difference of 144 points in their OPS. The Guardians need to win these games because the Royals are very good in their own ballpark.
The Royals have excelled with runners on base, hitting .303/.829. Their numbers with RISP are almost identical. With none on they’re hitting .218/.643 so the key is to not let them get on base.
The Royals have a good pitching staff, ranking 9th in ERA. Unlike their hitters, their pitchers are just as good on the road as at home, even better. Their road ERA is 3.47 versus 3.67 at home. Kauffman Stadium is the third most hitter friendly park in baseball so far this year which is partly responsible for the Royals hitting so much better at home.
The Royals’ staff excels at preventing home runs, ranking 2nd best in opponents’ home run percentage. They make you string hits together. They do a great job controlling the running game, leading the majors in opponents' stolen base percentage at just under 66%. They don’t strike out a lot of batters, ranking 27th in strikeout percentage, so the Guardians will be putting a lot of balls in play. Fangraphs ranks the Royals second in the majors in defense and fourth in ultimate zone rating. They cover a lot of ground.
That combination of allowing very few home runs and very few stolen bases means you have to string hits together to score and that’s difficult against the game’s second best defense that also has great range.
The Guardians have the bullpen advantage as the Royals' bullpen ranks 23rd in WAR and 24th in ERA while the Guardians' bullpen is 1st in both categories. If our starters can get to the 7th inning with the Guardians tied or ahead I like our chances.
The Royals have feasted on losing teams with a record of 29-11 against teams under .500 versus 7-14 against teams .500 or over. So they may have padded their stats against their weaker opponents. This series will be a good test of how good they actually are. They are 2-4 against Baltimore, 2-5 against Minnesota, 1-2 against the Yankees, 6-1 against the White Sox, and 5-1 against Toronto.
Bobby Witt Jr (.313/.906) and Salvador Perez (.315/.899) lead the offense. Perez, the 34-year-old catcher, is having a career season. His career line is .269/.765 so he is way, way above that. I’m thinking at his age he should regress to the mean, especially since catching wears on you as the season goes on.
His best season out of 12 so far was the pandemic shortened 2020 when he hit .333/.986 in 37 games; he never got the chance to wear down. This year Perez hit .368 in April, .284 in May, and .231 in the last seven days, so the regression may already be happening. I wonder what numbers he would put up if they just made him a DH and had him catch twice a week.
Triston McKenzie goes in the opener against Seth Lugo, a 34-year-old right-hander who spent eight years in the NL before coming over last off-season. Lugo is 49-32 with a 3.30 ERA and was a reliever until last season when the Padres converted him to a starter. Lugo is off to a phenomenal start at 9-1, 1.72 ERA. He probably would be the All-Star game starter if they made the selections now.
The Royals are 9-3 when Lugo starts. His road ERA is an amazing 0.86. Opponents are hitting .150 with runners on base and with RISP and two out they are 0-for-25. Yes, 0-for-25. With Monday being a day off he’ll be pitching with an extra day of rest.
Lugo’s FIP is 3.22 which is right on his career ERA average, so he’s been helped enormously by KC’s stellar defense.
McKenzie had a 3.06 ERA in six May starts so he has been very good but not spectacular recently. He has dominated the Royals. Current Royals players are hitting .128 off him. Perez is 3-for-18, Witt is 2-for-9, and the rest are 1-for-20. This could be a low scoring game.
Logan Allen starts Wednesday against Brady Singer, 4-2, 2.63. Singer has been sick but is expected to be ready to start Wednesday. He has not pitched since May 25. Allen is coming off a shellacking in Colorado but hopefully a return to sea level will help him get back on track. But his ERA at home is 7.33 so I’m not optimistic, especially since Witt and Perez hit right-handed.
Tanner Bibee goes in Thursday’s finale, which will be at 1:10 p.m. Michael Wacha was scheduled to pitch for the Royals but after having his foot fractured by a batted ball they will have to find someone else. The Royals' five starters have started every game but one this year so this is just the second time they will have to find a substitute starter.
