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2024 Season | Series #21 | Guardians @ Marlins | June 7-9, 2024

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Wham with the Right Hand

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The Guardians take their talents to South Beach for a three-game set against the Marlins. Miami is having a brutal season with a 21-41 record. They have lost 6 of 8 and their home record of 11-23 is actually worse than their road record. The Guardians are 19-13 on the road and have won 16 of 20.

The Marlins are better offensively at home, ranking 20th in home scoring at 4.03 runs per game. At home they are 20th in OBP, 25th in slugging, and 30th in ISO. They only have 25 home runs in 34 games at home. They are 29th in home run percentage, extra base hit percentage, and 28th in walk percentage at home. However, they are 8th in hard hit percentage and 6th in BABIP, so maybe they just don’t elevate the ball much. They’re 12th in batting average at home but 20th in scoring because they don’t walk much and have little pop.

Pitching is the problem. Their home ERA is last in baseball at 5.20. They allow a lot of baserunners, ranking 29th in WHIP. They do prevent home runs, ranking 4th lowest in home run percentage, but they’re 26th in walk percentage so it looks like they would rather walk a batter than throw something crushable.

Defense is part of the pitching problem as they are last in the majors in zone rating. They’re 25th in defensive runs saved and 24th in defense overall. The result is their staff ranks 27th in opponents’ BABIP. A lot of batted balls fall in against this team.

Their top hitter who plays regularly is CF Jazz Chisholm Jr (one of the cooler names in the league). He’s hitting .247/.735. Next is former Guardian Josh Bell at .255/.716. Other than those two nobody has an OPS over .704 among the every day players.

Tim Anderson is hitting .188/.427 at 30 years old. I wonder if that punch by Jose affected his eyesight or something. In four years his OPS has declined from .886 to .427. What happened to him?

The opener pits Logan Allen against 24-year-old lefty Ryan Weathers who is 3-5 with a 3.41 ERA in 12 starts. His WHIP is 1.12 so he’s having a good year. However, his home ERA is 5.33 against 2.16 on the road. For his career he’s 8-20 with a 5.13 ERA, but he’s pitching much better this year.

The first time through the order Weathers is awesome with a slash line of .120/.365. But the second time through it jumps to .319/.896, so it’s a matter of getting a look at his pitches the first time through and then jumping him the second.

Current Guardians are 5-for-9 off him and David Fry hit a 3-run homer in his only at-bat against Weathers. But his numbers are much better this year than even last year when his ERA was 6.56.

Logan Allen is 6-3 with a 5.83 ERA. He is at or near the top in run support which explains the high number of wins despite the embarrassing ERA. He’s allowed 10 runs in his last 7.1 innings so he needs to get back on track. He has had eight days of rest since getting shelled by the Rockies so he’s pitched just 1.2 innings in the last 13 days.

Allen is better on the road (4.84 ERA versus 7.33 at home). He gets abused by right-handed hitters (.317/.948) and with nobody on base opponents are hitting .379/1.111. With runners on they’re hitting .218. I wonder if he subconsciously relaxes with nobody on base because he is getting drilled when pitching from a windup. Maybe he’s tipping his pitches.

Tim Anderson is 4-for-11 against Allen; the rest of the Marlins are 3-for-17. This is a big start for Allen against a weak offensive team; he needs to get back on the horse. He especially needs to figure out why he’s getting hammered with nobody on base and come up with a better approach against right-handed hitters.

Ben Lively goes against a yet-to-be-named starter Saturday and Cookie faces Trevor Rogers, 1-7, 5.68 ERA on Sunday. The Guardians have won 16 of 20 while the Fish have lost four in a row.
 
WHAM, you hit it on the nose.

The Marlins are the worst team in ground ball % in MLB. They beat the ball into the ground like Arias. They are the only team that hits over half their balls on the ground.

They are also last in line drive % at 17.7. To put that into perspective, Straw has a career LD% of 22.3.
 
Must sweep series …. Need to win these easy games. Not this 1-3 vs White Sox and 1-2 vs Colorado BS. Why is Logan going today as there was enough off days to skip him entirely for a whole time through rotation?
Probably because the team knows they are going to need Allen to get his shit together if they want to win anything this season. As a rookie he was pretty damn good finishing with an ERA of 3.81.
 
Allen gave up three earned runs in his last three starts before getting rocked in Colorado. Bimbo says that was the result of the altitude affecting his pitches. The fact that he gave up seven runs and didn't make it out of the second inning confirms that his stuff wasn't working.

Guys that don't throw hard depend on late movement and if the thin air isn't allowing as much break they're going to get hit. Cal Quantrill, who now pitches for the Rockies, said something similar - you have to learn how to pitch effectively in that ballpark and visiting pitchers don't have that advantage.

Allen has started 12 games. He got shelled early in two of them; allowing 14 runs in 4 innings to Detroit and Colorado. In his other 10 starts his ERA is 3.95.

As I said before he's getting killed by right-handed hitters (.948 OPS) and with nobody on base (.442 OBP). He really struggles to get outs when pitching from the windup. I think his stuff is barely up to major league standards and he's basically a placeholder until we either trade excess prospects for a starter or develop somebody to replace him.
 
Im very optimistic about this roster.

IF Schneeman is for real, esp vs RHP, Vogt can put a full 1-9 lineup on his card.

We have five well above average batters hitters vs RHP...

Schneemann
Jose
Naylor
Kwan
Fry

We have four average hitters...

Rocchio
Freeman
Gimenez
Brennan

This doesn't include Manzardo and Bo, who both have very good track records vs righties.

Presently, the Guards rank 11th vs RHP at 101 wRC+, but we have replaced at bats from Florial, Laureano, and to some extent Arias with at bats from Fry, Manzardo, and now Schneemann. On paper, that number should go up.

Vogt has a solid lineup vs lefties, too.

Currently, the Guards rank 6th vs LHP at 116 wRC+.

***********

But the most exciting thing for me is that we finally have more than four full time players who don't need platooned.

Jose
Nails
Kwan
Gimenez
Fry
Freeman

Bo is gonna catch most of the time, so IF Schneemann is real, we could go a basic eight deep.
 
LOL, Rocchio in the "average hitters" list. All his numbers suggest well below average.....again.

Bo will eventually get his footing. Don't know exactly when, but we've all seen the type of hitter he can be. He has certainly made strides defensively. With Fry proving to be more than adequate as the backup C it's time to see if a more useful player than Hedges can be rostered.

The OF production is still weak without Fry so I'd try to get him in there as much as possible.

Neither Arias or Rocchio are hitting good enough to warrant roster spots and I'd imagine Vogt is growing tired of the lack of production.
We need to see more Schneeman at SS to see if he is indeed for real. It's a good story and he simply deserves it IMO. Brito and Tena are beginning to kick the door in. An exchange of locations could be looming. Brito being a switch hitter gives him an advantage along with not hitting the ball like a little girl. The approach is there as well. Tena being a LHH possibly puts him at a disadvantage with such a LHH heavy roster in Cleveland.

Freeman has been vastly better than Straw, but he's hitting .216 with a .667 OPS and a 93 OPS+. That's not good enough.

Brennan is providing an OPS+ of 92. That's not good enough.

I don't know what to make of Manzardo yet, but he only has 69 AB so far.

Kwan is on pace for 28 doubles and 12 HR. Best leadoff man in the game, but he needs his compadres in the grass to deliver what he cannot and he's not getting any help except from Fry.

The power of JRam, Naylor and Fry along with the pitching(mostly BP) have carried this team to this point. I'm optimistic about this team, but there are some concerns.
 
Allen gave up three earned runs in his last three starts before getting rocked in Colorado. Bimbo says that was the result of the altitude affecting his pitches. The fact that he gave up seven runs and didn't make it out of the second inning confirms that his stuff wasn't working.

Guys that don't throw hard depend on late movement and if the thin air isn't allowing as much break they're going to get hit. Cal Quantrill, who now pitches for the Rockies, said something similar - you have to learn how to pitch effectively in that ballpark and visiting pitchers don't have that advantage.

Allen has started 12 games. He got shelled early in two of them; allowing 14 runs in 4 innings to Detroit and Colorado. In his other 10 starts his ERA is 3.95.

As I said before he's getting killed by right-handed hitters (.948 OPS) and with nobody on base (.442 OBP). He really struggles to get outs when pitching from the windup. I think his stuff is barely up to major league standards and he's basically a placeholder until we either trade excess prospects for a starter or develop somebody to replace him.
I thought Bimbo meant that Allen was rocked due to maple impacting horsehide... no???
 
Heading down to little Cuba for the game on Sunday... time to see a win in person!
suggestion: try La Carreta [the Cart] in little Havana.. they have an incredible smoked pork shank that is to die for..
 

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